The value of a decision: to play or not to play

For various reasons, I found myself exhausted at 10pm. I had wanted to play tonight, but figured sleeping was a better decision than playing while tired. So I turned off the lights and laid down, unsure if I was taking a nap or going to bed. I knew I didn't want to be totally back on a real-world schedule, so I was leaning towards nap. But I sure as hell wasn't going to set an alarm had no reason to suspect I'd wake up before morning. I woke up around 3am and had to make a tough decision between getting up and playing for a while or rolling over to go back to sleep.

A funny thing about playing poker is that it creates a distorted picture of the value of those kinds of decisions. Theoretically, I should look at my long term average hourly earn rate, R, and how many hours I'm going to play, H, and multiply those 2 numbers to figure out the expected value of playing. H x R = EV. But variance is high in this game, so the actual result is often in a very different ballpark than the H x R projection.

So here's a common scenario. I decline an invitation to go out on a Saturday night, opting to stay in and take advantage of the juicy weekend action on Party Poker. I have a rough night at the tables: big pairs get cracked, miss all my flush draws, flop set under set 3 times. When my friends drunkenly call me at 3:31am and ask how my evening went, I know my excel sheet says I've lost $389 but I just mutter "Eh, not great... what did I miss?"

Our brains are built to make results-based associations. If I eat some berries and 30 minutes later I throw up, I associate the result of vomiting with eating the berries. I have an abstract understanding that I should be counting my imaginary EV dollars to determine how much the decision to stay in was worth, but its hard not to think that going out drinking would have been a $389 profit. I'm not going to eat those bastard berries any more.

Luckily tonight it went the other way. Instead of going back to sleep I got up and played, winning $884, far above the most generous estimates of my H x R. So what was the value of the decision?