Tuesday, February 28, 2006

Stealing

Stealing digital media is pervasive among people my age. Very few people have any ethical qualms with downloading mp3s or copying CDs that they don't own. Now that DVD copying technology is cheap, lots of people make illegal copies of movies too.

I refuse to take part in it. Sometimes it is awkward having to deny a request from a friend to copy a CD or DVD. When I say that I won't do it, people list reasons for doing it like:
  • They can't really enforce those laws
  • It is just so easy
  • I wouldn't buy it anyway
  • Those companies rip us off with high prices, they deserve it
  • It doesn't hurt anyone
None of those justify the offense. Stealing is wrong, and if you do it, you should be ashamed of yourself.

Sunday, February 26, 2006

Yet another reason to love Mark Cuban

Mark Cuban:

Now that The Apprentice is moving to Monday nights and riding on the coattails of NBC’s newest hit, Deal or No Deal, the Donald is doing the right thing and trying to get a viewership boost from an appearance on the Howie Mandel hosted show.

Of course, being the fun loving guy that I am, and as someone who is always trying to look out for the best interests of Donald Trump, I have decided to make an open offer to Howie Mandel.

Howie, if you can get Mr Trump to pull a rubber glove completely over his head and blow it up on your show, not only will I watch it, I will donate 1 million dollars to the charity of your choice.

What could be better than that ? Money for a great cause that you love. For the Donald, the thing he loves more than anything, bragging rights. Is there any doubt that by Tuesday afternoon he would be able to say that he was responsible for the most watched television show in the history of TV ?

Is it possible that any human being on the planet would be able to resist watching Donald Trump blow up a rubber glove over his head ? I dont think so. Combatants around the world would lay down their arms and all enjoy a moment of shared laughter.

I dont have the power to cause the end to wars. If only for a moment. You do Donald.

I dont have the power to create the unquestionable number one moment in TV history You do Donald.

Sieze the moment Donald.

Be a mensch Howie. History awaits you !

Wednesday, February 22, 2006

great story

I just heard this on Penn Jillette's radio show.

Penn has a friend who is an expert on betting and cheating who was doing some consulting work for the Texas state lottery. Penn's friend told him the following story.

A businessman went to his girlfriend in Dallas and tells her he has a winning lottery ticket for $25,000. He told her that he has to go on the road for a few weeks, but hold on to this ticket for him and when he gets back they'll cash it in and go to Vegas and have a good time. He gives her the ticket and heads to Houston.

When he gets to the Houston he goes to see another girlfriend there. He gives her a winning lottery ticket for $25,000 and say the same thing - he has to go on the road for a few weeks, but hold on to this ticket and when I get back we'll cash it in and go to Vegas for and have a good time.

Well the Dallas girl isn't going to wait for him to get back. She heads to the lottery office in Austin, where you have to go to cash in big prizes. When she gets there, she has to answer standard questions like:

  • Did you buy this ticket yourself?
  • Has it been in your possession the whole time?
  • Have you tampered with it in any way?
  • Has anyone else had any opportunity to tamper with it?
She tells them she bought the ticket and has held onto it the whole time. Penn's friend and other lottery officials are trying to be nice to her, because just looking at it they can tell it is a forgery.

"Are you sure about that?"

Yes.

"If you sign here, and it is wrong you'll get in trouble and go to jail for fraud."

I'll sign it. I just want the money.

"Are you sure about all those answers? If you have any doubt, you might not want to sign it..."
No I bought the ticket and I've had it the whole time. I want to cash it in.

So she signs the forms, and they immediately arrest her. Of course at that point she immediately comes clean and tells them about her boyfriend giving her the ticket. So they call the businessman and ask him about the ticket.

"Yeah that ticket is a fake. I really did win $25,000 so I made 2 copies of the ticket and gave it to 2 girls to see which one I could trust. Looks like I'm going to Vegas with my Houston girl!"

The great part is that he had done nothing illegal - you can make all the copies you want as long as you don't try to claim a prize on them.

Wednesday, February 15, 2006

Weird month. Good results at $5/10

This seems like the kind of general stuff that I'll post here as well as on my new poker-only blog.

The last month or so has been weird.

January 20 - Terrible session inspires introspection
January 23 - I playfully use graphs to recap
January 26 - I sit for 2 hours in Party's $5/10 6max games, and do it again
Jan 27 to Feb 6 - I keep playing that game, with various ups and downs.
February 7 - I plan for 8 more weeks of fairly heavy volume in that game.
February 14 - Recap of the 30 hours I put in the first week


Usually when I introspect after a terrible session, I end up trying to show enthusiasm for some new plan to make maximum use of my strengths while avoiding or overcoming my weaknesses. Not on January 20:

Unfortunately financial constraints force me to try to maintain a minimum level of income, and laziness constraints limit the hours I play, so I tend to want to play higher than I probably should. I've said this same shit so many times, and I keep having the same problem.... This game is hard. It seeks out my weaknesses and exploits them. You can do the income math on the numbers above. Its not impressive at all... As it is, I'm just barely getting by month to month. I always try to make these kind of entries have a positive spin. "If I do this or that, I have reason to be optimistic... blah blah..." Should I really be optimistic? I think it is pretty clear by now that given my skill level, expenses, and endurance, I'm going to struggle to build a bankroll and move up to higher limits... Anyway, the fact that my prospects for advancing are based more on capital infusions than hard work or skill is probably an indication that I won't be a professional poker player in 5 years. I've been thinking of other things I might like to do, but most of them will take some time to get started, so I think I'll be doing this for at least another year if I can make it.

No plan, and no enthusiasm. Basically I just say I'll keep trudging on cause I don't have anything better to do. In keeping with that spirit, I randomly decided to start playing the one game that had tortured me for than any other. The results?



Pretty good picture. Now, I can actually play the grizzled veteran and say that I've been doing this long enough not to get excited about a 15,000 hand stretch of results I like.

But something that does make me feel pretty good is the 30 hours I put in last week. Considering I've averaged 22.5 hrs/week since I went pro, that's an exceptionally good week for me. And it didn't feel like I played that much. I'm hoping that something about this particular game makes it easier for me to put in more hours.

Furthermore, while the 2.22 BB/100 in the 15k hands above is well above the 0.76 BB/100 for 120,000 overall hands that I mentioned on January 20th, it actually isn't too far out of line for my results at the $5/10 limit for both short and ring games across various sites.



Since November 1 I've made 1.77 BB/100 in 40,000 hands at $5/10.

And I've done some bitching and moaning in that time. Note that the graph features 3 large downswings of increasing size: 180, 200, and 260 big bets. But it does keep going up. And I've kept on playing.

It just weird that after all this time, I'm finally showing signs that I can do this the right way. I'm putting in hours. I'm being very diligent about game selection. I'm making good decisions in spite of the emotions of a high-variance game. And all of it just happened, almost on a lark.

I'm not ready to proclaim that I've turned some corner, but I like what is happening lately. Hopefully knowing that I've struggled through and survived 3 large downswings will help with the next one. We'll see how the rest of the 8 week plan goes.

Classic article

I assume the Michael Lewis who wrote this is the same as the author of Liar's Poker.

Jonathan Lebed: Stock Manipulator, S.E.C. Nemesis -- and 15

What a joke

I first read about this issue here.

The Justice Department opened an investigation because Michael L. Dini, an associate professor of biology at Texas Tech University, insists on the following (from here) from anyone requesting a letter of recommendation to graduate school or medical school:

Criterion 3

If you set up an appointment to discuss the writing of a letter of recommendation, I will ask you: "How do you account for the scientific origin of the human species?" If you will not give a scientific answer to this question, then you should not seek my recommendation.

Why do I ask this question? Let’s consider the situation of one wishing to enter medical school. Whereas medicine is historically rooted first in the practice of magic and later in religion, modern medicine is an endeavor that springs from the sciences, biology prominent among these. The central, unifying principle of biology is the theory of evolution, which includes both micro- and macro-evolution, and which extends to ALL species. Someone who ignores the most important theory in biology cannot expect to properly practice in a field that is now so heavily based on biology. It is easy to imagine how physicians who ignore or neglect the Darwinian aspects of medicine or the evolutionary origin of humans can make poor clinical decisions. The current crisis in antibiotic resistance may partly be the result of such decisions. For others, please read the citations below.

Good medicine, like good biology, is based on the collection and evaluation of physical evidence. So much physical evidence supports the evolution of humans from non-human ancestors that one can validly refer to the "fact" of human evolution, even if all of the details are not yet known; just as one can refer to the "fact" of gravity, even if all of the details of gravitational theory are not yet known. One can ignore this evidence only at the risk of calling into question one’s understanding of science and the scientific method. Scientists do not ignore logical conclusions based on abundant scientific evidence and experimentation because these conclusions do not conform to expectations or beliefs. Modern medicine relies heavily on the method of science. In my opinion, modern physicians do best when their practice is scientifically based.

Tuesday, February 14, 2006

Sam Harris on the Reality of Islam

Good stuff here.


Excerpts:

"It is time we recognized —and obliged the Muslim world to recognize —that “Muslim extremism is not extreme among Muslims. Mainstream Islam itself represents an extremist rejection of intellectual honesty, gender equality, secular politics and genuine pluralism. The truth about Islam is as politically incorrect as it is terrifying: Islam is all fringe and no center. In Islam, we confront a civilization with an arrested history. It is as though a portal in time has opened, and the Christians of the 14th century are pouring into our world. "



"The U.S. and British governments have chastised Denmark and the other countries that published the cartoons for privileging freedom of speech over religious sensitivity. It is not often that one sees the most powerful countries on Earth achieve new depths of weakness, moral exhaustion and geopolitical stupidity with a single gesture. This was appeasement at its most abject."



"Our press should report on the terrifying state of discourse in the Arab press, exposing the degree to which it is a tissue of lies, conspiracy theories and exhortations to recapture the glories of the seventh century. All civilized nations must unite in condemnation of a theology that now threatens to destabilize much of the Earth. Muslim moderates, wherever they are, must be given every tool necessary to win a war of ideas with their coreligionists. Otherwise, we will have to win some very terrible wars in the future. It is time we realized that the endgame for civilization is not political correctness. It is not respect for the abject religious certainties of the mob. It is reason."


"...ask yourself where the Palestinian Christian suicide bombers are. Palestinian Christians also suffer the indignity of the Israeli occupation. This is practically a science experiment: take the same people, speaking the same language, put them in the same horrendous circumstance, but give them slightly different religious beliefs--and then watch what happens. What happens is, they behave differently."


"It should be of particular concern to us that the beliefs of devout Muslims pose a special problem for nuclear deterrence. There is, after all, little possibility of our having a cold war with an Islamist regime armed with long-range nuclear weapons. A cold war requires that the parties be mutually deterred by the threat of death. Notions of martyrdom and jihad run roughshod over the logic that allowed the United States and the Soviet Union to pass half a century perched, more or less stably, on the brink of Armageddon. We must come to terms with the possibility that men who are every bit as zealous to die as the September 11th hijackers may one day get their hands on nuclear weaponry."

Monday, February 13, 2006

Communication is hard

*2/13/06 - I'm bumping up this post because Joe contributed an interesting link, and because the conversation in the comments took an interesting turn that might be worth reviving.*


We've all been in discussions/arguments where we feel like both parties are just saying the same thing over and over again. Sometimes those things keep going because the 2 sides genuinely don't understand each other. But often they keep going because of the sources of error that are built into the way we communicate.

Consider this simple model.

My thought --> my choice and delivery of words --1--> your reception/interpretation of my words --> your thought in response --2--> your choice and delivery of words --3--> my reception/interpretation of the response

Each arrow is a potential source of so much distortion. I thought about this and decided to color code it. The green processes and arrows are things I tend to consider carefully; the red I overlook too often.

While I put a great deal of thought into choosing my words to carefully convey as precise a meaning as I can, I often overlook the reality that words mean different things to different people. I already know the point I'm trying to make, so that biases my interpretation of my own words. I need to give more consideration to this idea, which is marked by that first red arrow.

There's a lot more red on your side of the communication process, and I want to be more aware of those. I don't often consider that your choice of words might not precisely reflect exactly what you're thinking, hence the 2nd red arrow. I don't usually think about how casually/carefully people choose their words, hence the first red text. And the third red arrow is because even if I assumed that everyone chooses their words very carefully (I don't think it is a bad thing that most people don't choose their words as carefully as I do, it is just a factor of personality and mood), that still overlooks that you might have a different idea of the meaning of the words than I do.

And the last red text is because I don't often consider that I could be misinterpreting your words. I need to take more responsibility for that.

Each of those sources of error can build on themselves, compounding the severity of the miscommunication. The green arrows that I think I understand fairly well can still be big sources of error, I just tend to be more aware of the possibility of error at those points than at the others.

So when I sense a miscommunication, I tend to assume that an error must have occurred at one of the green points and I try to correct that when the true source of the error was elsewhere. If both parties in the conversation do that, it could easily result in the phenomenon I described at the start - an endless frustrating argument where both people say the same things over and over.

Sunday, February 12, 2006

I started a poker blog

So I decided to put together Donk Bet: 1BB/100.

2 main reasons for it -

1. To help me organize my poker thoughts, with the goal of improving my game. Having them sprinkled through this whole blog isn't very efficient for that goal. Just from copying over my poker writing from here to there, some trends became much more obvious without all the obnoxious noise I have here. So I'm already getting ideas to help me win more money.

2. Focus makes a better blog. Writing whatever comes to mind is fun for me, but probing the depths of my weird mind isn't really very interesting to many people. I guess the idea is that a poker blog brings people together to discuss poker, whereas this blog is more about discussing me.


I'll still post some poker content here, but it will be more broad themed. Hand analysis and session graphs will probably be only at the poker site.

Friday, February 10, 2006

Should I start a poker blog?

This thing isn't a poker blog. It is a blog by a guy who plays poker.

But if I seperated out only the poker posts and put them in their own blog, it would probably be a semi-respectable poker blog. ("Semi-respectable poker blog." I don't even know what that means. Is that like a semi-clean prostitute?) That would take a lot of effort though, to go start a new blog and cross-post all my old poker posts. Would it be worth it? What would I really be trying to accomplish?

Should I start a poker blog?

Who is John Galt?

Thursday, February 09, 2006

So cold

A few days ago, after 2 weeks of running well, I wrote about my hot steak and included this:

A brag post is 100% guaranteed to initiate a 200bb downward correction, something I certainly deserve.
I was wrong. It now stands at 230bb down in my last 3,000 hands beginning from the minute I posted that. Dear god. That follows a 4,000 hand +375bb uptick.

As usually happens in terrible drops, every river is devastating, every KK sees an Ace on the flop, and every backdoor inside straight hits for the 85/5/2.7 idiot.

Midway through this drop, I thought summoning the power of Anchorman would help me. I thought I'd have many leather-bound books. Well now this is happening [drop-kick my winrate in half].

I just want Baxter back.

No, this isn't supposed to make sense.

Wednesday, February 08, 2006

I don't care about sports any more

In high school I loved baseball. I listened to every Orioles game on the radio (Hall of Famer Chuck Thompson and Jon Miller were outstanding) and devoured the Baltimore Sun's sports page coverage every afternoon when I got home from school. I knew every story about every player, could quote their stats, and monitored the progress of minor league prospects.

Then I went off to college and stopped caring about baseball.

In college I loved college basketball. I felt a personal connection to our team and went to almost every home game in my 4 years at the University of Maryland. I knew every story about every player, could quote their stats, and followed our recruiting efforts. I ran a fan website at www.juandixon.com (which I gave to Juan after we graduated) and was friends with the Washington Post's Terps beat writer. I still consider the final four weekend in Atlanta in 2002 where "we" won the National Championship one of the greatest times of my life.

Then I graduated and I stopped caring of college basketball.

Starting around the time Michael Jordan came out of retirement, I loved the NBA. I watched all the Wizards games and TNT's Thursday night coverage. I got tickets when interesting teams came to town and read all the box scores on ESPN.com with my cursor poised to switch over to an excel spreadsheet if someone walked by my cubicle. I knew every player who got minutes for every team, and eagerly awaited the All-Star Game.

Then I quit my job and I stopped caring about the NBA.

---

I've often looked back and tried to explain my abrupt abandonment of teams/sports I loved so much. Part of me didn't want to let go. I theorized that not getting the newspaper delivered to my dorm was the reason I lost touch with the Orioles. I theorized that the letdown after winning a national championship was the reason I stopped caring about my Terps (Today I still do care about the Terps, but in a different way). I theorized that moving my computer away from my television was the reason I stopped caring about the NBA.

Now I understand it a lot better, and I think it is all about entertainment.

At the heart of it, watching a ball game is entertainment, and entertainment is a way you choose to spend your time. The transitions [from high school --> college --> office job --> playing online poker at home] each drastically changed how my days were spent. Not surprisingly, major changes in the my life brought about changes in the way I spend my entertainment time.

I still like sports. I still can enjoy watching a basketball game or spending a summer evening at Camden Yards. I still think playing fantasy football or watching a game at a sports bar is a fun way to stay in touch with friends. I appreciate the skills of athletes and coaches, and I enjoy witnessing the strategy and competition.

But I don't have any interest in being an active sports fan any more. I'm not going to read all the box scores, enter 6 fantasy leagues, tune in for the TNT pregame show with Charles and Kenny, or watch every Orioles game. I'll turn down tickets to games now, or turn the game off at halftime. Instead, I'd rather read a book, or watch a movie, or kiss my girlfriend, or write in my blog, or enjoy a Samuel Adams White Ale (or 5), or go for a run, or listen to the O'Reilly Radio Factor, or anything else I do for entertainment.

I don't know exactly why my preferences are different now. I can list a bunch of theories:

  • Maybe its because I play a game for a living, so I don't want to spend much of my free time reading about and watching other people play games.
  • Maybe its because its kind of sad how rabid sports fans seem like they're trying to live vicariously through a bunch of kids in bright green shorts.
  • Maybe its because I'm sick of every team being convinced the refs screw them over more than anyone else.
  • Maybe its because I'm gay.
  • Maybe its because I suddenly realized that professional athletes are modern day gladiators whose only value to society is filling some primal need for people to feel like part of a war without any actual risks.
  • Maybe its because I'm sick of my entertainment dollars making rich superstars out of so many complete jackasses.
  • Maybe its because I realized that the vast majority of sports commentary is meaningless bullshit.
  • Maybe its because experience to variance in poker made me realize that luck, as opposed to skill, determines a lot more of the outcomes of plays/games/seasons than people want to believe.
Whatever the reason, I've finally come to terms with it, and I'm no longer ashamed to admit it. I don't care about sports any more.

Tuesday, February 07, 2006

Structure

Poker Plan for the next 8 weeks:

  • Starting tomorrow I'm going to play a minimum of 6,000 hands per week on Party, to take advantage of a VIP promotion they're running.
  • I hope to average at least 1.5 BB/100, which will net me income of about $1,000/week with the bonus from the promotion.
  • I'm going to try to get in 1 decent sized tournament every week, under the guidance of the tournament mastErm. Starting tonight at 7pm with a freeroll where the top 15 of a 300 person tournament get a free ride on the Party Poker Million V Cruise.

Last Week Recap:


So here's my last regular daily chart, followed by my chart for the last week (I count my weeks Wed-Tues).

Today: More sweet swings


Week 2/1 - 27: Shoulda just quit on Saturday

I'm Ron Burgandy?

Image hosting by Photobucket
[Click on image to enlarge. I'm kind of a big deal.]

America sucks / we love America

I liked this article.

The rest of the world complains that American hegemony is reckless, arrogant, and insensitive. Just don’t expect them to do anything about it. The world’s guilty secret is that it enjoys the security and stability the United States provides. The world won’t admit it, but they will miss the American empire when it’s gone.

Monday, February 06, 2006

As prescribed

The inevitable carnage since the last post:

heat continues

I'm on a tear in this $5/10 6max game on Party. Obviously there's a healthy amount of good luck at work here. But some of the credit has to be given to my new and improved game selection methods. This post on an excellent poker blog describes a similar process to what I've been using. Don't read that guy's posts if you play in my games though.

Anyway, I don't like to post what is basically a brag, but I do it because:
1) I complain a lot, so I should give some space to the good times.
2) A brag post is 100% guaranteed to initiate a 200bb downward correction, something I certainly deserve.

Friday, February 03, 2006

Learn

3 days in AC stacked up like this

$6/12: 2.5 hours, -$515
$10/20: 16 hours, +$220

The $10/20 game wasn't very good. The $6/12 games were better, I just caught a terrible string of strong 2nd best hands while waiting for the $10/20. The $20/40 game looked great but I couldn't bring myself to take a shot on a limited bankroll.

I really need to learn no-limit. There was tons of action in the $2/5 NL games, but I have no experience there, so I helplessly sat in the crappy $10/20 game and longed for better game selection.

In contrast, my Party $5/10 6max results since I got back

Thursday, February 02, 2006

Stop believing, start thinking.

This is important.


People just aren't rational when it comes to certain topics.

State of the Union

I watched the address from my hotel room in Atlantic City. I was very glad to hear that renewable fuel and science/math education are important agenda items, and I'll probably blog more extensively about that a bit later.

On the energy note, I think its odd that nobody seems to talk about the fact that oil is going to run out some day. And I strongly suspect that day will come a lot sooner than people want to believe, probably in my lifetime. If that happens, we all could be in deep deep shit. Read this article or this book before you tell me I'm crazy. More on this later I'm sure.

Also, I think Bush could have used some of those science teachers he plans on training to clarify something for him about human-animal hybrids.