Sunday:
Sunday I remember very well, so I find it bizzare that I forget what happened Saturday. But Sunday did feature one of the most memorable characters of the trip: King Randall.
The day started out with a few hours playing $9/18. As I mentioned, this game is in the low-limit section, and it definitely plays like low-limit. Everyone is in til the river with the slightest draw. I can't fathom that this is basically the same limit as the $10/20 at the Taj, which is a fairly tough game to beat on weekdays. So I sat there for a while, played tight and won $60. Blah.
Oh, on the high limit side ($15/30 and up) they comp you free meals at the table. They have tons of little Mexican dudes running around and they bring you anything you want. You can order an appetizer, steak dinner and dessert and just give the waiter a $5 tip, and they bring it to the table. The only thing they don't comp is alcohol, which you actually have to pay for. But at the low limit side, they make you pay for everything. But I didn't know that when I sat down to play $9/18 because I had watched everyone ordering ridiculous meals in the other game and not pay for them. So I ordered something expensive and then the waiter asked for money. So that sucked. Off to $15/30 for dinner.
So after the afternoon in the crazy low limit game, I find a seat in the $15/30 must-move game, and buy in for my usual 2 racks ($1,000). (for those who don't know what "must-move" means, it is when they have a "main game" at one table that has been going for a while, but enough people on the waiting list to start another table. So they put them all at a 2nd table, but protect the main game by forcing people from the must-move to fill in seats at the main game as they open up.). I sit in the game for a while, and most of the table is playing predictable poker. I'm not going to crush this game, but I'm certainly not going to be outplayed by anyone, so I'm fairly comfortable and optimistic that I can win a few bucks.
And then Randall showed up.
This guy looks about 40 years old, and strongly resembles Woody Harrleson. He loudly announces to the table "MY NAME IS KING RANDALL, AND I AM AWESOME! BE AFRAID OF ME! I KNOW WHAT I'M DOING!"
Holy shit. This guy was drunk off his ass, maybe high too.
Every time it was his turn, he loudly called "TIME!" and looked at his cards for like 10 seconds. He usually followed this with "well, what can I do? Wait! I want to raise! How many chips?" Obviously, he usually lost the hand.
After every hand he would get up and walk over to the winner and shake their hand and tell them how well they played. He was the nicest drunk idiot ever. I managed to get involved with him in 1 hand with pocket queens and won a monster pot just before I had to move over to the main game. He came over and shook my hand 3 times, told me how strong I play, and that I am awesome, but not as awesome as him. I swear to God this is all true. I was obviously not happy to have to leave this game, and figure he'd either run out of money or get tired and leave before it was his turn to move.
Wrong.
About an hour later, King Randall loudly annouced his presence at the main game. He drunkenly looked around the table, but his glazed-over eyes came into focus when he saw me. He gave a big smile, and yelled - "you're class, buddy! i want you!"
Over the next few hours these are some actual quotes from King Randall, randomly thrown in to any hand he played:
"I love Latino women!"
"Well I can't win but I raise anyway"
"Dammit I lose. That's ok, I know Halle Berry."
"You think I look like Woody Harrelson? I have his money."
"Do you know Kareem-Abdul Jabar?"
"I own so much real estate!! I'm a producer."
"Buy property, win at poker!!!"
After a fat guy won a pot, Randall looked over at him and went "Woah! that's a big boy. But can you run the mile? King Randall can run a half-marathon, a 10K, or a 5K!"
When a woman sat down next to him, after the table had been all male for a while, Randall looks at her and goes "ooooh Lady! We forgot about your race."
Randall kept ordering Heinekens every time a waitress walked by, regardless of if he was done with the one he was drinking. Everytime he ordered and everytime she brought one, he gave her $20. At one point he had 3 full beers on the table behind him, plus the one he was drinking. The first time he got up to use the bathroom, he got lost for 20 minutes, so from then on he had a floorman escort him to and from the facility. He tipped them $20 each time.
Randall took a liking to me. After every hand he won, he reached across the table and gave me a pound. After every hand I won, he reached across the table and gave me a pound. He pretty much gave me pounds any time I looked at him. In spite of his drunkeness he was actually fairly perceptive. Here are some actual quotes he said to me:
"You're class, man" (about 100 times)
"I want you" (about 100 time)
"Look at that guy, he's 23 years old, his financial position is SOLID (noting my large stacks), and he's got BIG BALLS!"
When I ordered dinner, he said "Don't order here man! Let me buy you dinner ANYWHERE you want. I'm just a white guy with a ton of money. Let me buy you dinner!" When I refused, he said "You're class, man!"
"You're the kind of guy that I want to marry my daughter. But gotta work hard! Everything has come easy for you your whole life. But not my daughter." I swear to God he actually said this.
"I dream of Mexican women. But I want you. Do you know why? Cause you're the best."
"You're the best!" then to the rest of the table: "do you know who this guy is? You don't, but I've been following him. He's one of the best poker players in the world!!"
Maybe it was random that he keyed in on me, but I was definitely by far the best player at the table. I was probably up about $1,200 at my peak, but a couple of bad beats toward the end of the night knocked me down a bit from there. I left as soon as King Randall stumbled out, which was around 3:15am. I would estimate that Randall lost $2,000 to $3,000 and tipped away another $300 to $400. I didn't see him the rest of the week.
Session: 2:45pm - 6:15pm
Game: 9/18 Hold'em
Result: + $60
Session: 6:45pm to 3:15am
Game: $15/30 Hold'em
Result: + $715
Trip total: 21.5 hrs, + $811
Showing posts with label poker life. Show all posts
Showing posts with label poker life. Show all posts
Friday, November 07, 2008
LA Poker, 2004
Some time in the summer of 2004 I took a trip to LA to play poker. (This was before I "went pro;" I was working for GeeEvil at the time.) I wrote up a trip recap to send to a bunch of friends who were interested. I just found the document in an obscure folder on my hard drive. It is fun to read. Here's an entry:
Monday, July 14, 2008
My transition to casual poker
It has been over two years since poker was my primary income source, but I've played occasionally in that time. I haven't keep nearly as good records as I used to, but I think I've lost in the low four figures. I don't like that I've been a losing player for two years, and I recognize that there are a few adjustments that I was slow to make.
I think the biggest mental adjustment is that playing a lot less means my variance over any given period of time is going to be a lot higher, and I need to adjust my expectations accordingly. Grinding out hands at a modest win rate fosters a mentality of not taking short-term swings too seriously, but when I only play a thousand hands per month, it extends the weird emotions associated with variance without the return to the grind as a release. And part of me is tempted to want to try to make something interesting happen rather than wait 5 years until I reach my mythological long run expectation. What I really ought to do is just look at every session as profitable leisure time, not as pure gambling, which means I need to derive pleasure from making good poker decisions, not from the bottom line.
A mental adjustment that I've been pretty good about making is recognizing that I'm just not as sharp as when I was putting in lots of hands. Practice matters, and rust can lead to bad decisions. Also I hardly ever read poker strategy any more, so I'm spending a lot less mental energy on improving or maintaining my poker skills (which is a good thing for my life generally, just not for my poker results). I've been playing fewer tables simultaneously, which gives me more time to think about each decision and replay hands in my head. Still there have been situations where I was too quick to add tables when I thought I was playing well and I probably should have been more conservative.
The poker world has been changing while I've been away, which just means that I can't assume that a given game is going to be the same as it was 2 or 3 years ago. I think the limit games are much harder now, even taking my rust into account. I stubbornly tried to stick with familiar limit games even once it should have been obvious that no-limit was the way to go. Lately I've been playing a lot more no-limit, and it has been fun and easier. I think switching to more no-limit also is good for facilitating the first adjustment I mentioned, because the variance is lower compared to win rates. I think the 6-max no-limit games are a lot different than they used to be, which more people increasing their aggression for the shorthanded games, whereas the same stakes full tables seem passive and easier. (That's just my impression; I have no idea if anyone would agree with those comparisons.)
As a last catch-all point, I just need to stop thinking like someone who is playing for a living. Something about sitting in this chair with Full Tilt or Poker Stars loaded up puts me into the old mindset. About a month ago I was trying to quickly clear a reload bonus, so I decided to play limit, and at higher stakes than I would have chosen if not for the bonus. I played well though, and felt very comfortable. Then towards the end of clearing the bonus I was at a table with a terrible opponent who I was crushing. I followed him to a new table when he left, and continue that pattern for a while, to a nice profit. Then suddenly he sat at much higher stakes, but I decided to follow him there too and give it a shot. I played one round and without any marginal decisions I gave back 6 times the profits I had made off the bad player. The bonus made back only a fraction of the loss. There was a time where taking a shot at a bigger game when I'm feeling good and know I can sit with position on a terrible player would have been a risk that I'd have been happy with either way. But today there was no reason to push it like that. And furthermore, there's no reason to force myself into weird situations just to chase a bonus. (I should also add that I don't know how I feel any more about chasing a player around to take his money. If I knew he was some bored rich lawyer blowing off steam I wouldn't think twice about the ethics of it, but what if it is some guy with a gambling problem? This moral ambiguity bothers me now. And no, "he's going to lose it all anyway, might as well be to me" isn't a satisfactory resolution.)
All of this analysis is really only specific to me and my situation; I'm not putting it out there as advice anyone else should follow. I don't make much money, and I don't want to gamble for entertainment. I want to play profitable poker for fun every once in a while, at stakes that are within my means and where the swings won't be worrisome. These are different circumstances and goals than I've had for the vast majority of my poker experience, and so I need to keep reminding myself of the big picture when I make game selection decisions.
I think the biggest mental adjustment is that playing a lot less means my variance over any given period of time is going to be a lot higher, and I need to adjust my expectations accordingly. Grinding out hands at a modest win rate fosters a mentality of not taking short-term swings too seriously, but when I only play a thousand hands per month, it extends the weird emotions associated with variance without the return to the grind as a release. And part of me is tempted to want to try to make something interesting happen rather than wait 5 years until I reach my mythological long run expectation. What I really ought to do is just look at every session as profitable leisure time, not as pure gambling, which means I need to derive pleasure from making good poker decisions, not from the bottom line.
A mental adjustment that I've been pretty good about making is recognizing that I'm just not as sharp as when I was putting in lots of hands. Practice matters, and rust can lead to bad decisions. Also I hardly ever read poker strategy any more, so I'm spending a lot less mental energy on improving or maintaining my poker skills (which is a good thing for my life generally, just not for my poker results). I've been playing fewer tables simultaneously, which gives me more time to think about each decision and replay hands in my head. Still there have been situations where I was too quick to add tables when I thought I was playing well and I probably should have been more conservative.
The poker world has been changing while I've been away, which just means that I can't assume that a given game is going to be the same as it was 2 or 3 years ago. I think the limit games are much harder now, even taking my rust into account. I stubbornly tried to stick with familiar limit games even once it should have been obvious that no-limit was the way to go. Lately I've been playing a lot more no-limit, and it has been fun and easier. I think switching to more no-limit also is good for facilitating the first adjustment I mentioned, because the variance is lower compared to win rates. I think the 6-max no-limit games are a lot different than they used to be, which more people increasing their aggression for the shorthanded games, whereas the same stakes full tables seem passive and easier. (That's just my impression; I have no idea if anyone would agree with those comparisons.)
As a last catch-all point, I just need to stop thinking like someone who is playing for a living. Something about sitting in this chair with Full Tilt or Poker Stars loaded up puts me into the old mindset. About a month ago I was trying to quickly clear a reload bonus, so I decided to play limit, and at higher stakes than I would have chosen if not for the bonus. I played well though, and felt very comfortable. Then towards the end of clearing the bonus I was at a table with a terrible opponent who I was crushing. I followed him to a new table when he left, and continue that pattern for a while, to a nice profit. Then suddenly he sat at much higher stakes, but I decided to follow him there too and give it a shot. I played one round and without any marginal decisions I gave back 6 times the profits I had made off the bad player. The bonus made back only a fraction of the loss. There was a time where taking a shot at a bigger game when I'm feeling good and know I can sit with position on a terrible player would have been a risk that I'd have been happy with either way. But today there was no reason to push it like that. And furthermore, there's no reason to force myself into weird situations just to chase a bonus. (I should also add that I don't know how I feel any more about chasing a player around to take his money. If I knew he was some bored rich lawyer blowing off steam I wouldn't think twice about the ethics of it, but what if it is some guy with a gambling problem? This moral ambiguity bothers me now. And no, "he's going to lose it all anyway, might as well be to me" isn't a satisfactory resolution.)
All of this analysis is really only specific to me and my situation; I'm not putting it out there as advice anyone else should follow. I don't make much money, and I don't want to gamble for entertainment. I want to play profitable poker for fun every once in a while, at stakes that are within my means and where the swings won't be worrisome. These are different circumstances and goals than I've had for the vast majority of my poker experience, and so I need to keep reminding myself of the big picture when I make game selection decisions.
Tuesday, December 04, 2007
Tuesday, August 14, 2007
Brush with greatness
Last night I randomly logged in to Full Tilt to terrorize the $1/2 games. I was absolutely crushing it for like 6 or 8 big bets, so I started snooping around and noticed there was some kind of "chat with the pros" section and there happened to be a live chat going on. Erica Schoenberg was the featured pro. I had never heard of her, so I decided to join the chat. I fired off a few questions, hoping some of them would be selected for her to answer.
Around this point it became obvious that this girl was dating some famous high-roller named David and happened to win a tournament. Apparently that makes her some kind of celebrity. My questions kind of deteriorated from here (or improved, depending on your perspective).
2007-08-14 03:52:36.47 who are you?Meanwhile some of her answers to other questions included Seinfeld quotes, references to the NBA, and her speaking french. Some questions seemed to imply that she was attractive. What was going on here?
2007-08-14 03:54:47.10 do you find that your anonymity inspires fear?
especially when you play against people i've heard of
2007-08-14 03:56:56.20 As a female who likes Seinfeld, do you find that I should know who you are? If so, why don't I?
2007-08-14 03:59:37.03 do you think that full tilt should sheild you from the tough questions? if not, please tell me who you are.
2007-08-14 04:02:08.53 lebron? francais? seinfeld? some full tilt tech geek just made you up right?
2007-08-14 04:04:10.16 all my questions concern your likely nonexistence. how do you handle the pressure of this kind of scrutiny?
Around this point it became obvious that this girl was dating some famous high-roller named David and happened to win a tournament. Apparently that makes her some kind of celebrity. My questions kind of deteriorated from here (or improved, depending on your perspective).
2007-08-14 04:11:37.30 did you and i ever play $15/30 together at theAt this point I decided to google this girl, I found pictures of her. She's kind of pretty.
taj? if so, did we flirt a lot and then never fully realize our
desires?
2007-08-14 04:14:27.18 i have AJo in the small blind. do you know
phil ivey?
2007-08-14 04:17:47.04 6 dude one time my buddy knocked gavin smith
to the ground cause he was so drunk. true story. now, hypothetically if
i shared a poilte lunch with you, who would have had a bigger brush with
greatness?
2007-08-14 04:25:28.31 if you could have dinner with any 5 people,
living or dead, would your zombie magic make you famous enough for me to
have heard of you?
2007-08-14 04:31:51.50 all those questions about who you are wereI later found out that her primary claim to fame is that she is engaged to David Benyamine and was part of some kind of strip poker DVD where she took her top off. (I'd link to pictures but this is a family blog. I'm sure you can find them though.) Only one of my questions made it through before she signed off.
just jokes! who is this david, and why does your prettiness make my
tummy feel weird?
[adspar]: who are you?
EricaSchoenberg: who are you?
Saturday, April 21, 2007
Monday, June 26, 2006
Poker: now what?
The job search is progressing more slowly than I imagined it would, but it has been ramping up a bit lately, and I have an interview coming up soon.
Its been about a month since I decided that its time to figure out some way other than poker to make a living. Since then I've barely played at all (just 2.5 hours in June at low limits, winning $100). I've been living off my savings and some advertising revenue from my blogs. Having taken some time away from poker, I'm starting to think that maybe getting back in the game would be good for me.
Specifically, playing with my original poker goals when I quit my last job - to make a little bit of money playing a limited schedule to help pay the bills until I figure out something else. Last time I lost sight of that plan, but that won't happen now. I've spent a lot of this last month trying to figure out my priorities, and I'm making progress. Reclaiming some poker income would give me some freedom to be selective about job opportunities, which would be a good thing as long as I can keep the negatives of poker income away.
All of that assumes that I'm capable of playing winning poker, which isn't necessarily a fair assumption. I was really freefalling. If I do come back, I'm going to start slow and small. Fewer tables, lower limits until I'm very very comfortable. Almost like I'm rebuilding my game. I'd want to turn off the auto-pilot and start thinking about poker again. Maybe turn off my real-time stats for a bit. Close the office door, turn off the music and focus for short bursts of intense concentration.
Its been about a month since I decided that its time to figure out some way other than poker to make a living. Since then I've barely played at all (just 2.5 hours in June at low limits, winning $100). I've been living off my savings and some advertising revenue from my blogs. Having taken some time away from poker, I'm starting to think that maybe getting back in the game would be good for me.
Specifically, playing with my original poker goals when I quit my last job - to make a little bit of money playing a limited schedule to help pay the bills until I figure out something else. Last time I lost sight of that plan, but that won't happen now. I've spent a lot of this last month trying to figure out my priorities, and I'm making progress. Reclaiming some poker income would give me some freedom to be selective about job opportunities, which would be a good thing as long as I can keep the negatives of poker income away.
All of that assumes that I'm capable of playing winning poker, which isn't necessarily a fair assumption. I was really freefalling. If I do come back, I'm going to start slow and small. Fewer tables, lower limits until I'm very very comfortable. Almost like I'm rebuilding my game. I'd want to turn off the auto-pilot and start thinking about poker again. Maybe turn off my real-time stats for a bit. Close the office door, turn off the music and focus for short bursts of intense concentration.
Thursday, May 11, 2006
huge self-indulgent poker/life post coming soon?
I feel it coming, but I just don't have the focus to write it quite yet. I've been playing very little poker the last few days, and doing lots of thinking about my life: where I've been, where I am, where I'm going.
It is time for a change.
I've been looking through some of the things I've written, and I thought these 6 old entries weave an interesting story line through this mish-mash that I call my blog.
2/28/05 Why I quit my job
3/7/05 What I said I wanted to do with myself
6/17/05 What I actually did, what I thought I wanted to do
10/12/05 Wasting time, then and now
10/15/05 Making lemonade
1/5/06 I turn down a prospective employer
Roughly speaking, I think those partially tell the story of how misguided ideals and strong inertia tricked me into thinking of myself as a professional poker player. This is the story that I'll delve into if the huge self-indulgent poker/life post does happen.
By the way, the spell check blogger.com provides doesn't recognize the word "blog."
It is time for a change.
I've been looking through some of the things I've written, and I thought these 6 old entries weave an interesting story line through this mish-mash that I call my blog.
2/28/05 Why I quit my job
3/7/05 What I said I wanted to do with myself
6/17/05 What I actually did, what I thought I wanted to do
10/12/05 Wasting time, then and now
10/15/05 Making lemonade
1/5/06 I turn down a prospective employer
Roughly speaking, I think those partially tell the story of how misguided ideals and strong inertia tricked me into thinking of myself as a professional poker player. This is the story that I'll delve into if the huge self-indulgent poker/life post does happen.
By the way, the spell check blogger.com provides doesn't recognize the word "blog."
Tuesday, March 28, 2006
blah phase
I go through phases.
I had been in a fairly productive phase where I was trying to make good use of my time, figure out my future, and pursue ideas that interested me. But the last few days I've been in an extremely unmotivated phase where everything is just "blah."
When I'm not in a "blah" phase, I often think that I'd like to pursue some career where I help improve the human condition. Lately I've concluded that my greatest strength is rational thinking, and I've thought that the best way for me to feel good about my career is to somehow professionally encourage rational thought and behavior.
But when I'm in a "blah" phase, and I encounter stories like 1 and 2, I have a pretty hard time concluding that people aren't far beyond any help I could offer.
People aren't interested in rational thinking. Even if there was a nice way to tell someone that their irrational behavior is doing them more harm than good, and there generally isn't, they wouldn't care anyway. They'd spit in your face. Or if you were in Kabul, they'd hang you. And then they'd carry on with their idiocy.
Humans aren't built to live in a global society where we're often exposed to people who look, speak, and act a lot differently than themselves. We aren't built to have access to advanced scientific understanding of the world around us. And again and again and again our behavior reflects those basic facts.
I'm reminded of a Steven Pinker quote:
It is my belief that the only way to avoid irrational insanity is through Pinker's "arduous education." But it is hard enough for a responsible person to educate one's self - how do we make sure everyone is so educated?
You can't just storm into Kabul and teach Abdul Raoulf that killing someone for what they say isn't something we should be doing. After all, his position is very reasonable and moderate in his world.
Or you could establish widespread public education throughout your country, and then still have a nation full of anti-science fundamentalists who believe that the world is 6,000 years old and that evolution is a conspiracy.
Blah.
In this phase, it seems like holing up in my house and hustling chumps for their kid's college fund seems like an appropriate way to make a living. Why bother trying to improve the world? I just should look out for myself. Self-interest.
Self-interest is the one reason people have to overcome their irrationality. They might be built to hate their neighbors with the different skin color and the funny accents, but it is in everyone's best interests to just trade with them instead of squandering their resources trying to kill each other. If everyone could just somehow realize this, so many problems would be solved.
But naturally, most religions teach people that self-interest is bad. Religion gives wonderful advice like "die for this cause, and you will be rewarded in the afterlife (trust me, there's an afterlife)" and "if someone hits you, offer to let them hit you again... that is what Jesus did!"
Fortunately the "turn the other cheek" people don't seem jumping to offer more suicide bombing targets to the "virgins in paradise" people.
So even if you could somehow educate all these people that certain aspects of their beliefs are actually self-destructive bullshit, and even if you could show that rational thinking has improved their lives with centuries of technological advances (except for the ones who believe that medicine is evil, of course), they'd still fuck it all up, and they'd be ready with plenty of pseudo-logical excuses.
I think it's missing part of the Pinker quote that really screws us over:
Blah.
Maybe the anti-science fundamentalists are right. Maybe technology is terrible, because without it we wouldn't have the global industrial society that we aren't built for. Maybe humankind would be better off if 99% of the world's population killed each other, and we'd go back to living in primitive hunter-gatherer tribes. On the brink of starvation, dirty, freezing, and ignorant. But hey, ignorance is bliss.
Of course I recognize that this whole depressing rant is part of the problem that it identifies. It is just a "pseudo-logical excuse" to justify my own irrational behavarior: the blah phase, the worthlessness of my daily pursuits, and frustration with being too lazy to change what I don't like about my life and the world.
How do I fight this? Or do I just keep playing poker and complaining about it.
I had been in a fairly productive phase where I was trying to make good use of my time, figure out my future, and pursue ideas that interested me. But the last few days I've been in an extremely unmotivated phase where everything is just "blah."
1.) I just came across this article. Basically some guy in Afghanistan converted to Christianity, so his community is demanding that he be executed. "Rejecting Islam is insulting God. We will not allow God to be humiliated. This man must die," said cleric Abdul Raoulf.
The article also notes that Mr. Raoulf is considered a moderate.
2.) I also came across this blurb, which notes that according to a recent study, 30% of African women think a woman deserves to be beaten for burning dinner.
The article also notes that Mr. Raoulf is considered a moderate.
2.) I also came across this blurb, which notes that according to a recent study, 30% of African women think a woman deserves to be beaten for burning dinner.
When I'm not in a "blah" phase, I often think that I'd like to pursue some career where I help improve the human condition. Lately I've concluded that my greatest strength is rational thinking, and I've thought that the best way for me to feel good about my career is to somehow professionally encourage rational thought and behavior.
But when I'm in a "blah" phase, and I encounter stories like 1 and 2, I have a pretty hard time concluding that people aren't far beyond any help I could offer.
People aren't interested in rational thinking. Even if there was a nice way to tell someone that their irrational behavior is doing them more harm than good, and there generally isn't, they wouldn't care anyway. They'd spit in your face. Or if you were in Kabul, they'd hang you. And then they'd carry on with their idiocy.
Humans aren't built to live in a global society where we're often exposed to people who look, speak, and act a lot differently than themselves. We aren't built to have access to advanced scientific understanding of the world around us. And again and again and again our behavior reflects those basic facts.
I'm reminded of a Steven Pinker quote:
Many tragedies come from our physical and cognitive makeup... Our minds are adapted to a world that no longer exists, prone to misunderstandings correctable only by arduous education...
It is my belief that the only way to avoid irrational insanity is through Pinker's "arduous education." But it is hard enough for a responsible person to educate one's self - how do we make sure everyone is so educated?
You can't just storm into Kabul and teach Abdul Raoulf that killing someone for what they say isn't something we should be doing. After all, his position is very reasonable and moderate in his world.
Or you could establish widespread public education throughout your country, and then still have a nation full of anti-science fundamentalists who believe that the world is 6,000 years old and that evolution is a conspiracy.
Blah.
In this phase, it seems like holing up in my house and hustling chumps for their kid's college fund seems like an appropriate way to make a living. Why bother trying to improve the world? I just should look out for myself. Self-interest.
Self-interest is the one reason people have to overcome their irrationality. They might be built to hate their neighbors with the different skin color and the funny accents, but it is in everyone's best interests to just trade with them instead of squandering their resources trying to kill each other. If everyone could just somehow realize this, so many problems would be solved.
But naturally, most religions teach people that self-interest is bad. Religion gives wonderful advice like "die for this cause, and you will be rewarded in the afterlife (trust me, there's an afterlife)" and "if someone hits you, offer to let them hit you again... that is what Jesus did!"
Fortunately the "turn the other cheek" people don't seem jumping to offer more suicide bombing targets to the "virgins in paradise" people.
So even if you could somehow educate all these people that certain aspects of their beliefs are actually self-destructive bullshit, and even if you could show that rational thinking has improved their lives with centuries of technological advances (except for the ones who believe that medicine is evil, of course), they'd still fuck it all up, and they'd be ready with plenty of pseudo-logical excuses.
I think it's missing part of the Pinker quote that really screws us over:
We are certain to die, and smart enough to know it... and condemned to perplexity about the deepest questions we can entertain.We're built to be so cause-and-effect oriented, and we know that death is at the end of every chain of choices we make. So all that fancy book-learnin' and logic don't make no difference cause we all end up in a grave. So why bother with it in the meantime? It is way too arduous. Fuck that, I'll just make up happy stories to believe in.
Blah.
Maybe the anti-science fundamentalists are right. Maybe technology is terrible, because without it we wouldn't have the global industrial society that we aren't built for. Maybe humankind would be better off if 99% of the world's population killed each other, and we'd go back to living in primitive hunter-gatherer tribes. On the brink of starvation, dirty, freezing, and ignorant. But hey, ignorance is bliss.
Of course I recognize that this whole depressing rant is part of the problem that it identifies. It is just a "pseudo-logical excuse" to justify my own irrational behavarior: the blah phase, the worthlessness of my daily pursuits, and frustration with being too lazy to change what I don't like about my life and the world.
How do I fight this? Or do I just keep playing poker and complaining about it.
Sunday, March 05, 2006
time to wake up
I've lost $2600 so far this week. I've spewed away over 250 big bets in about 5,000 hands. And I decided to play some $10/20 this week, so some of that is at double my normal stakes.
So, let's put things in perspective. This is my 2006:
Yeah, after this week I've won $1,000 so far this year. Pretty awe-inspiring.
This week is once again forcing me to stop and do some serious self-evaluation. I can't hide any more from the following observations:
Commence serious rant.
From time to time I've observed that I tend to live my life as if I'm waiting for something to happen to me, instead of making something happen for myself. That's how I've been with poker too. I read stories about guys who were just grinding along at low limits and then one day something just clicks and they start crushing their game and soon they're playing $100/200 and winning 6 figures in a month. Its like I've been just sitting around waiting for that to happen to me. What the fuck? What a terrible approach.
How am I going to get make myself get better? Yeah I've read a couple books once or twice. Yeah I spend a lot of time reading poker forums. But I don't REALLY think about that stuff. I don't REALLY try to learn. I just kind of put it in front of my eyes and go through the motions without any heart behind it. I don't go back through my hand histories after a session and look for mistakes I made. I don't bust out a calculator and figure out if I had the odds to make that call.
At some point I stopped thinking about poker. I stopped working at it. I rarely put my opponents on hands. I mostly just play my own cards and hope I'm playing profitably. Sometimes I'll notice that a players stats look really bad, and so then I assume I'm better than them. Mostly I just isolate and then call down. I'm not playing poker, its like I'm playing Marco Polo and just treading water in the corner of the pool hoping the blind idiot doesn't bump into me. God forbid I actually swim around.
Going through the motions doesn't cut it in the real real world like it does in the fake real world (corporate world). Hell, going through the motions puts you on the fast track to success in the corporate world. People pretend to be busy all day, then they even stay in the office late to make it look like they're working reallllllly hard. Questioning the way things are done is more likely to get you scolded than rewarded. So you just sit at your desk and find ways to make your boss think that you're better than the guy sitting next to you. But your boss doesn't care because he's thinking of ways to make his boss think he's better than the guy in the office next to his.
When I lose, I assume bad luck is to blame. I'm playing well so it must be bad variance! So I'll make it up in volume! I'll play more tables and more hours! Who am I trying to convince? I've got hundreds of thousands of hands now, and they say that I'm winning at most 1BB/100 hands, and showing no sign of improvement from a year ago. I probably play even worse when I play more tables, and I certainly don't learn anything.
All of this makes perfect sense. I didn't quit my job to play poker, I quit my job because I didn't like it. When I quit, my idea was that I could pay the bills playing 20 hours per week and use the extra time to figure out what the hell to do with my life. And I've done the first part - I've won barely enough to pay my bills this whole time - but I haven't done the 2nd part. I don't know what I want to do with my life.
At some point I just started saying "I'm a poker player" and that was what I was doing with my life. Except I never actually have approached it that way. From time to time I've made token efforts to fix some problem but I've never truly approached poker like I'm running my own business and I have only myself to answer to.
Hopefully this latest loss has shocked me into coherence. I need to do 2 things really quickly. First I have to start devoting some time to figuring out what I plan to do with my life, both for the next few years and beyond. And second, I need to figure out a better way to approach poker as long as it is going to be my primary income source.
It has been almost a year since I quit that job. In some ways I've been living the dream. But I think it is time to wake up.
So, let's put things in perspective. This is my 2006:
Yeah, after this week I've won $1,000 so far this year. Pretty awe-inspiring.
This week is once again forcing me to stop and do some serious self-evaluation. I can't hide any more from the following observations:
- I'm not making a very good living from poker.
- I don't seem to be improving.
- I'm not enjoying the game, or this lifestyle, nearly as much at I used to.
- I'm not good enough at poker to make a living from it.
- I'm never going to get any better. I'm maxed out.
- I hate poker, and I hated my old job. So I need to figure something else out.
Commence serious rant.
From time to time I've observed that I tend to live my life as if I'm waiting for something to happen to me, instead of making something happen for myself. That's how I've been with poker too. I read stories about guys who were just grinding along at low limits and then one day something just clicks and they start crushing their game and soon they're playing $100/200 and winning 6 figures in a month. Its like I've been just sitting around waiting for that to happen to me. What the fuck? What a terrible approach.
How am I going to get make myself get better? Yeah I've read a couple books once or twice. Yeah I spend a lot of time reading poker forums. But I don't REALLY think about that stuff. I don't REALLY try to learn. I just kind of put it in front of my eyes and go through the motions without any heart behind it. I don't go back through my hand histories after a session and look for mistakes I made. I don't bust out a calculator and figure out if I had the odds to make that call.
At some point I stopped thinking about poker. I stopped working at it. I rarely put my opponents on hands. I mostly just play my own cards and hope I'm playing profitably. Sometimes I'll notice that a players stats look really bad, and so then I assume I'm better than them. Mostly I just isolate and then call down. I'm not playing poker, its like I'm playing Marco Polo and just treading water in the corner of the pool hoping the blind idiot doesn't bump into me. God forbid I actually swim around.
Going through the motions doesn't cut it in the real real world like it does in the fake real world (corporate world). Hell, going through the motions puts you on the fast track to success in the corporate world. People pretend to be busy all day, then they even stay in the office late to make it look like they're working reallllllly hard. Questioning the way things are done is more likely to get you scolded than rewarded. So you just sit at your desk and find ways to make your boss think that you're better than the guy sitting next to you. But your boss doesn't care because he's thinking of ways to make his boss think he's better than the guy in the office next to his.
When I lose, I assume bad luck is to blame. I'm playing well so it must be bad variance! So I'll make it up in volume! I'll play more tables and more hours! Who am I trying to convince? I've got hundreds of thousands of hands now, and they say that I'm winning at most 1BB/100 hands, and showing no sign of improvement from a year ago. I probably play even worse when I play more tables, and I certainly don't learn anything.
All of this makes perfect sense. I didn't quit my job to play poker, I quit my job because I didn't like it. When I quit, my idea was that I could pay the bills playing 20 hours per week and use the extra time to figure out what the hell to do with my life. And I've done the first part - I've won barely enough to pay my bills this whole time - but I haven't done the 2nd part. I don't know what I want to do with my life.
At some point I just started saying "I'm a poker player" and that was what I was doing with my life. Except I never actually have approached it that way. From time to time I've made token efforts to fix some problem but I've never truly approached poker like I'm running my own business and I have only myself to answer to.
Hopefully this latest loss has shocked me into coherence. I need to do 2 things really quickly. First I have to start devoting some time to figuring out what I plan to do with my life, both for the next few years and beyond. And second, I need to figure out a better way to approach poker as long as it is going to be my primary income source.
It has been almost a year since I quit that job. In some ways I've been living the dream. But I think it is time to wake up.
Thursday, March 02, 2006
Losing $3,000 to impress someone
If you want to see a message board thread that captures the essense of.... something, check this out.
It started with this challenge:
Seems pretty stupid, but basically just some goofy fun.
Until some kid decided to do this at $5/10 and dropped almost $3,000.
So then some people started pointing out how completely insane it is that he deliberately lost thousands of dollars just to make a funny post on a message board. This kid had made over $100,000 in February playing poker, so having a little fun and losing $3,000 in an hour probably seemed like a good idea to him. Of course the rest of us realize that spending that on a week vacation at the beach would probably be a lot more fun.
So there were a bunch of "wasting that much money is crazy" vs "its not that much money to him" posts. Lots of people just telling the $3,000 kid how awesome he is. Then some kid from my University of Maryland made some great points I think, and people gave him all kinds of shit for it, although a few agreed with him:
Somebody else wrote:
That is another great point. I lost $1,500 yesterday and won $1,000 tonight, so it can be easy to be distracted from the fact that an hour of poker is worth about $30 to me. Playing this game for a living really fucks with your mind.
It started with this challenge:
I am laying down a challenge for all of those people willing to blow 20k on blackjack. This will be much more fun.
The rules:
-you must play 100 hands of LIMIT poker
-you must play EVERY single hand to the river
-you must have a PFR of over 40% and an aggression factor over 1
-any limits are allowed (.25/5 to 1 billion dollars/2 billion dollars)
-this must be in a single session
-graphs and stats must be posted for you to compete in this challenge
Seems pretty stupid, but basically just some goofy fun.
Until some kid decided to do this at $5/10 and dropped almost $3,000.
So then some people started pointing out how completely insane it is that he deliberately lost thousands of dollars just to make a funny post on a message board. This kid had made over $100,000 in February playing poker, so having a little fun and losing $3,000 in an hour probably seemed like a good idea to him. Of course the rest of us realize that spending that on a week vacation at the beach would probably be a lot more fun.
So there were a bunch of "wasting that much money is crazy" vs "its not that much money to him" posts. Lots of people just telling the $3,000 kid how awesome he is. Then some kid from my University of Maryland made some great points I think, and people gave him all kinds of shit for it, although a few agreed with him:
- Hes a young kid who recently came across much more money then he is accustomed to. I am sure he is extrapolating his new found success into being a billionaire at 40. The idea that he is willing to blow 3k to simply say "look at me" shows an extreme amount of information about his personality, imo. Someone's value of an activity or object can be grossly skewed especially temporarily. The idea that the value of everything being self-deciding just doesn't hold that much water as an argument on a number of levels.
- A better analogy would be to watch a wealthy businessman go to the center of town and light money on fire, while his yes-men cream their pants.
- you don't realize how insulated many of you are within a community you have emerged yourself into. Its akin to body builder's approval of steroids, nazis approval of anti-semitism, and the like. The groupthink becomes an unfortunate byproduct of this forum.
- it easy to become so close-minded when no one is telling you anything different. Its detrimental to your growth, so its pretty unfortunate.
- I just think it is so scary that a 20 year old kid starts making a lot of money, and the first thing he wants to do is blow 3k to impress people he does not know. If you are going to waste 3k get a pound of weed or a sick plasma tv screen. You can donate it or give it to a friend that needs it.
Somebody else wrote:
it's really sick what poker can do to our sense of monetary value. our hourly swings can be 10-15 times our hourly earn, so the money seems to be so much less valuable. compound that with someone who ran super hot for a while and the money almost has no significance. but there's a time when we will all run bad and it sucks to think back at that money you could've had.
That is another great point. I lost $1,500 yesterday and won $1,000 tonight, so it can be easy to be distracted from the fact that an hour of poker is worth about $30 to me. Playing this game for a living really fucks with your mind.
Monday, January 23, 2006
More pictures: Poker Graphs
Graphs to accompany this post. Slightly updated to include play between this post and that one.
Each limit since June 05 (click images to enlarge)
$3/6 (0.77 BB/100)
This starts out mostly 4 tabling, then moves to 6. I expect my winrate drops as I add 2 more tables, but if it is 70% of my 4 table rate or better, I make a better hourly rate. Hard to draw any definite conclusions, but I think I might be better with 4 or 5.
$5/10 (1.35 BB/100)
You can see the downswing I've been moaning about recently in the fall from the peak at 20k hands. Looks like I've been coming out of it. There are a variety of multitable patterns over these hands, so its hard to analyze that variable.
$10/20 + $15/30 combined (0.53 BB/100)
In like a lion, out like a lamb. Not surprising is that in the lion phase I was playing mostly 1 or 2 tables at a time (and I actually have 11k more hands in my other database at $10/20 winning 2.1 BB/100). Pretty much exactly the time I moved to 3 or 4 tables is when the curve turns downward. Since that time, I think I've greatly improved my ability to play 4 tables, but I'm going to be very very conservative about expanding beyond 2 tables when I get back to these limits. I'll have to play more hours to make up for the lower hourly volume.
Each limit since June 05 (click images to enlarge)
$3/6 (0.77 BB/100)
This starts out mostly 4 tabling, then moves to 6. I expect my winrate drops as I add 2 more tables, but if it is 70% of my 4 table rate or better, I make a better hourly rate. Hard to draw any definite conclusions, but I think I might be better with 4 or 5.$5/10 (1.35 BB/100)
You can see the downswing I've been moaning about recently in the fall from the peak at 20k hands. Looks like I've been coming out of it. There are a variety of multitable patterns over these hands, so its hard to analyze that variable.
$10/20 + $15/30 combined (0.53 BB/100)
In like a lion, out like a lamb. Not surprising is that in the lion phase I was playing mostly 1 or 2 tables at a time (and I actually have 11k more hands in my other database at $10/20 winning 2.1 BB/100). Pretty much exactly the time I moved to 3 or 4 tables is when the curve turns downward. Since that time, I think I've greatly improved my ability to play 4 tables, but I'm going to be very very conservative about expanding beyond 2 tables when I get back to these limits. I'll have to play more hours to make up for the lower hourly volume.
Friday, January 20, 2006
my poker past and future
After a terrible evening, I decided to do some poker introspection. The following is semi-stream of consciousness.
Let's put tonight's loss in perspective.
At all levels since June 1, I've won 0.76 BB/100 in 120,000 hands.
$3/6: 0.77bb, 52k hands
$5/10: 1.27bb, 22k hands
$10/20: 0.49bb, 23k hands
$15/30: 0.56bb, 14k hands
If you're wondering why bothered with $15/30 when I haven't even shown much profitability at $3/6, here's the rough sequence of limits since June:
$10/20 ---> $15/30 hot at first, then very cold ---> retreat down to $10/20, frigidly cold --> retreat all the way down to $3/6, double from 2 to 4 tables and grind away, gradually go to 6 tables (which lowers my winrate) --> $5/10
So here I am at $5/10 and based on everything else, my 1.3 bb/100 here might be temporarily too high because I'm running hot. (1.3 would be 1.5bb if not for tonight. Shows you how volatile this stat is) Or maybe I've finally learned something and I'm improving a bit.
When I first move to a new game I'm very cautious about table selection, which probably helps me get off to a hot start. But when I'm being cautious, I'm not playing nearly as much because the higher stakes make it more emotional. Then I look at how little I'm playing and see that I've got a good winrate at first, and I start forcing myself to play more, sacrificing selectivity. Eventually I get sloppy, sit down without scouting it out, and play too many tables at a time. And then I start wondering what went wrong.
A better approach to moving to a new game would be to play it a bit here and there when the games look good, but then drop down and play the game I had been comfortable with before moving up. Or better yet, make damn sure I have a solid long-term win rate in a game before jumping up. Unfortunately financial constraints force me to try to maintain a minimum level of income, and laziness constraints limit the hours I play, so I tend to want to play higher than I probably should.
I've said this same shit so many times, and I keep having the same problem. This game is hard. It seeks out my weaknesses and exploits them. You can do the income math on the numbers above. Its not impressive at all. Luckily rakeback and bonuses more than double that number, otherwise I'd be employed by now. As it is, I'm just barely getting by month to month.
I always try to make these kind of entries have a positive spin. "If I do this or that, I have reason to be optimistic... blah blah..." Should I really be optimistic?
I think it is pretty clear by now that given my skill level, expenses, and endurance, I'm going to struggle to build a bankroll and move up to higher limits. But I'm clearly a proven winner at this point, albeit a marginal winner.
But then would I probably be a marginal winner at the next level? Say I can win 1.2 bb/100 at $5/10. That's $12 per 100 hands. Could I expect to win 0.8bb/100 at $10/20? That seems like a reasonable assumption. That's $16 per 100 hands with the same skill level. Plus then I'd be playing against better competition and hopefully learning from them and improving.
Is it insane to think I'd be better off playing higher when I haven't even been able to build a bankroll to afford higher stakes? This is part of the reason I think selling my house would be a good idea. I could live someplace cheaper that lowers my monthly expenses, increasing the amount of my winnings that I can reinvest in my bankroll. Hell if I had no expenses the last 6 months, I'd have a very nice bankroll. Plus I could use some of the cash infusion from the equity gain to pad my bankroll and possibly move to higher stakes.
Another weird possibility would be having someone stake me. I've never really seriously considered such an arrangement, but it might be a good fit here if someone with money to risk buys into the idea that I'd probably be a winner at a higher level. I'm not sure if playing with someone else's money would make me feel less pressure or more, although I suspect less since I'm a selfish bastard (luckily in this case that works to the advantage of my theoretical backer).
Maybe the Vegas trip I have planned for April would be a good test-run for a staking deal. From what I hear about the $20/40 and 30/60 games out there, I probably have the skill but not the bankroll to beat them. If anyone wants to invest in a mediocre poker player, let me know. (Yes, someone asking to borrow money is a huge warning sign that they'd be a bad investment. That's why this isn't really me asking. It is more like me letting you know about a lukewarm opportunity that we could consider. I expect the offers to now come flooding in.)
Anyway, the fact that my prospects for advancing are based more on capital infusions than hard work or skill is probably an indication that I won't be a professional poker player in 5 years. I've been thinking of other things I might like to do, but most of them will take some time to get started, so I think I'll be doing this for at least another year if I can make it. I still really enjoy poker, and I imagine it will be a great hobby and supplemental income source for the rest of my life.
Let's put tonight's loss in perspective.
At all levels since June 1, I've won 0.76 BB/100 in 120,000 hands.
$3/6: 0.77bb, 52k hands
$5/10: 1.27bb, 22k hands
$10/20: 0.49bb, 23k hands
$15/30: 0.56bb, 14k hands
If you're wondering why bothered with $15/30 when I haven't even shown much profitability at $3/6, here's the rough sequence of limits since June:
$10/20 ---> $15/30 hot at first, then very cold ---> retreat down to $10/20, frigidly cold --> retreat all the way down to $3/6, double from 2 to 4 tables and grind away, gradually go to 6 tables (which lowers my winrate) --> $5/10
So here I am at $5/10 and based on everything else, my 1.3 bb/100 here might be temporarily too high because I'm running hot. (1.3 would be 1.5bb if not for tonight. Shows you how volatile this stat is) Or maybe I've finally learned something and I'm improving a bit.
When I first move to a new game I'm very cautious about table selection, which probably helps me get off to a hot start. But when I'm being cautious, I'm not playing nearly as much because the higher stakes make it more emotional. Then I look at how little I'm playing and see that I've got a good winrate at first, and I start forcing myself to play more, sacrificing selectivity. Eventually I get sloppy, sit down without scouting it out, and play too many tables at a time. And then I start wondering what went wrong.
A better approach to moving to a new game would be to play it a bit here and there when the games look good, but then drop down and play the game I had been comfortable with before moving up. Or better yet, make damn sure I have a solid long-term win rate in a game before jumping up. Unfortunately financial constraints force me to try to maintain a minimum level of income, and laziness constraints limit the hours I play, so I tend to want to play higher than I probably should.
I've said this same shit so many times, and I keep having the same problem. This game is hard. It seeks out my weaknesses and exploits them. You can do the income math on the numbers above. Its not impressive at all. Luckily rakeback and bonuses more than double that number, otherwise I'd be employed by now. As it is, I'm just barely getting by month to month.
I always try to make these kind of entries have a positive spin. "If I do this or that, I have reason to be optimistic... blah blah..." Should I really be optimistic?
I think it is pretty clear by now that given my skill level, expenses, and endurance, I'm going to struggle to build a bankroll and move up to higher limits. But I'm clearly a proven winner at this point, albeit a marginal winner.
But then would I probably be a marginal winner at the next level? Say I can win 1.2 bb/100 at $5/10. That's $12 per 100 hands. Could I expect to win 0.8bb/100 at $10/20? That seems like a reasonable assumption. That's $16 per 100 hands with the same skill level. Plus then I'd be playing against better competition and hopefully learning from them and improving.
Is it insane to think I'd be better off playing higher when I haven't even been able to build a bankroll to afford higher stakes? This is part of the reason I think selling my house would be a good idea. I could live someplace cheaper that lowers my monthly expenses, increasing the amount of my winnings that I can reinvest in my bankroll. Hell if I had no expenses the last 6 months, I'd have a very nice bankroll. Plus I could use some of the cash infusion from the equity gain to pad my bankroll and possibly move to higher stakes.
Another weird possibility would be having someone stake me. I've never really seriously considered such an arrangement, but it might be a good fit here if someone with money to risk buys into the idea that I'd probably be a winner at a higher level. I'm not sure if playing with someone else's money would make me feel less pressure or more, although I suspect less since I'm a selfish bastard (luckily in this case that works to the advantage of my theoretical backer).
Maybe the Vegas trip I have planned for April would be a good test-run for a staking deal. From what I hear about the $20/40 and 30/60 games out there, I probably have the skill but not the bankroll to beat them. If anyone wants to invest in a mediocre poker player, let me know. (Yes, someone asking to borrow money is a huge warning sign that they'd be a bad investment. That's why this isn't really me asking. It is more like me letting you know about a lukewarm opportunity that we could consider. I expect the offers to now come flooding in.)
Anyway, the fact that my prospects for advancing are based more on capital infusions than hard work or skill is probably an indication that I won't be a professional poker player in 5 years. I've been thinking of other things I might like to do, but most of them will take some time to get started, so I think I'll be doing this for at least another year if I can make it. I still really enjoy poker, and I imagine it will be a great hobby and supplemental income source for the rest of my life.
Sunday, January 08, 2006
Small victories
I have trouble playing longer than an hour, too often let myself get frustrated, and tend to quit when I'm emotional. I just overcame all of that, and karma rewarded me with a nice come-from-behind win. My name is Earl.After about 50 minutes I was down 30BBs, frustrated at a string of bad beats, and nearly convinced myself to quit. But I realized that the people I was playing against were total morons and figured I should stick around a bit longer. After another half hour I had recovered all of my losses and more.
I shouldn't be having these kinds of problems. Usually I don't, but Party 6max games have a mysterious power over me. Plus I'm riding a 150BB downswing at Absolute $5/10, so maybe I'm on edge more than normal. Or I just suck.
Also, I slept from midnight to 4pm last night. It was great.
Monday, November 07, 2005
Back to where it all started
Going back to 4-tabling $3/6. Fortunately, I'm able to view this as a simple business decision. I don't have any problem playing lower, in terms of ego. I need to maximize income given my risk tolerance, and this move is the best way to do it.
Two big advantages to playing lower: the players are so much worse, and I don't have to be afraid of a big loss. Another noteworthy advantage is that it is easier to find a good game any time.
Worse Players: Loose/Passives vs Loose/Aggressives
Unfortunately, its harder to make a living at lower stakes, so I'm going to have to drastically increase my volume. 30~40 hours per week of 4-tabling is still better than 40 hours per week in an office. I might try 6-tabling.
Hopefully after a few months I will have rebuilt my bankroll and my confidence, and I'll be in a much better position to succeed at the mid-limits. While I was able to post a winrate of 1BB/100 hands in 50,000 hands at $15/30 and $10/20 I still think there are some big flaws in my game, and not all of them fall under the "if my bankroll was bigger..." excuse. I need to patch those holes.
Alternatively, if I find that I am unable to beat these games for enough to make ends meet, I'll know that I'm just not good enough to play poker for a living, and I can walk away knowing that I gave it my best shot and went down swinging.
Two big advantages to playing lower: the players are so much worse, and I don't have to be afraid of a big loss. Another noteworthy advantage is that it is easier to find a good game any time.
Worse Players: Loose/Passives vs Loose/Aggressives
- There are some loose players at the mid-levels, but there are fewer and they're usually much more aggressive. Loose $3/6 players routinely call til the river and then fold when they miss their inside straight draw. Loose $15/30 players check-raise that draw on the turn just to fuck with you. Not that money can't be made from the latter, but on a weak bankroll, I want my opponents to be as passive as possible. More aggressive games = more variance. I can't afford variance any more.
- The majority of players at $3/6 and up are somewhat tight, but again they are more aggressive at higher limits. In my return to $3/6, I was amazed by how often all my opponents folded to my flop continuation bet (After raising preflop I almost always bet the flop, regardless of whether my hand improved. There are exceptions, but not many.) This rarely happens at mid-limits. It is so much easier to steal small pots at the lower limits.
- As my losing streak worsened and my bankroll crumbled, it got to the point where I was afraid of losing. 50BB fluctuations are a very common occurrence in limit hold'em, but I couldn't handle a $1,000 swing at $10/20 any more. Playing scared takes away some important tools, and even bad aggressive players know how to pounce on weakness. I can play fearlessly at $3/6, giving me a big advantage.
Unfortunately, its harder to make a living at lower stakes, so I'm going to have to drastically increase my volume. 30~40 hours per week of 4-tabling is still better than 40 hours per week in an office. I might try 6-tabling.
Hopefully after a few months I will have rebuilt my bankroll and my confidence, and I'll be in a much better position to succeed at the mid-limits. While I was able to post a winrate of 1BB/100 hands in 50,000 hands at $15/30 and $10/20 I still think there are some big flaws in my game, and not all of them fall under the "if my bankroll was bigger..." excuse. I need to patch those holes.
Alternatively, if I find that I am unable to beat these games for enough to make ends meet, I'll know that I'm just not good enough to play poker for a living, and I can walk away knowing that I gave it my best shot and went down swinging.
Wednesday, November 02, 2005
Methodology
Problem:
I've had 2 losing months in a row.
Hypotheses:
Background Info/Observations:
Definition: Earning 1.0 BB/100 hands means averaging $20 profit for every 100 hands at $10/20, or $30 for every 100 hands at $15/30, etc.
Facts about my overall mid-limit record:
Discussion:
It seems pretty clear to me that my results are consistent with a good player who has hit the bad side of routine variance lately. When the best way to look at results is in the context of hundreds of thousands of hands, and I'm only playing 15,000 hands per month, my perception of results is going to be pretty skewed while I go through them in real time.
That being said, even if I can conclude I'm a good player, that doesn't necessarily translate to making a living. I've identified several obstacles I'll have to overcome if I want to make my living this way: endurance, multitasking, game selection and discipline.
Bankroll
Playing poker for a living is a lot like running a small business. If I remember one thing from studying entrepreneurship in college, it is that a large percentage of small business failures can be attributed to undercapitalization. I'll get back to this point in a bit.
I've noted that poker has a huge amount of variance, and my results have certainly shown it that too (the bottom lines of my last 5 months: +8,000, +400, +9,000, -2,000, -500). How do you combat variance in poker? Well if you want your monthly results to be more consistent, the best way is to play a huge number of hands every month. So my lack of endurance and limited multi-tabling experience make me more susceptible to high variance. Some guys have no problem putting in 50 hours per week or more and playing 8 tables at a time, which greatly decreases their variance in the same time period, and increases the chance of their poker business being successful.
So if you don't combat variance with volume, how else can you? Capital reserves. Bankroll. If my expected monthly earn isn't significantly above my monthly expenses, I need a much larger bankroll to minimize my risk of ruin. I've known for a long time that my bankroll is smaller than it should be, given my monthly expenses. Ideally, with my bankroll I'd be playing lower limits. But given my cost of living and the other weakness I mentioned above, I decided I had to be in the middle limits, and accepted the risks.
I think that part of the reason for my weak results at $15/30 was that I was playing scared. I think that part of the reason my shorthanded play sucks is that it naturally has higher variance and I play scared. I think part of the reason for this losing streak is that a few bad sessions while playing well caused me to lose confidence and start playing scared and weak. If I had a bigger bankroll I wouldn't play scared, and my results would be better. I'm going to say "scared" a few more times. Scared, scared, scared.
Conclusion:
Clearly if I can't keep bring in cash, I'll have to get a real job and my poker career will have been an enjoyable failure. It doesn't seem likely that I'll put in a lot more hands, so volume won't be my key to success. So its got to be a combination of these things:
Idea: Sell My House
Trading the mortgage payment for cheap rent would decrease my expenses, and the cash infusion from my gains would increase my bankroll. That would allow me to play higher limits with less pressure, which should help improve my playing skills and income.
I've had 2 losing months in a row.
Hypotheses:
- I am a good but not great poker player.
- I have the skills to make a decent living playing limit hold'em.
- I could expect to average between 1.0 and 1.5 BB/100 hands in most full handed mid-limit games on PartyPoker.
- Deviation between actual results and the above is explainable by variance and psychological factors.
Background Info/Observations:
Definition: Earning 1.0 BB/100 hands means averaging $20 profit for every 100 hands at $10/20, or $30 for every 100 hands at $15/30, etc.
- A good player can earn 1.0-1.5 BB/100. A great player can make over 2.0 BB/100.
- It takes 50,000 to 200,000 hands to have much confidence in the accuracy of a winrate, because variance is so high.
- It isn't uncommon for a good or even a great player to have 20,000 hand stretches of losing or breakeven results.
- These are based on my interpretation of the collective wisdom of the message boards at 2+2. There are lots of discussions about these topics you can search for at the site.
Facts about my overall mid-limit record:
- 19,000 hands at $15/30, won 0.54 BB/100
- 32,000 hands at $10/20, won 1.37 BB/100
- 8,900 hands at $15/30, lost 2.6 BB/100
- 19,000 hands at $10/20, won 0.54 BB/100
Discussion:
It seems pretty clear to me that my results are consistent with a good player who has hit the bad side of routine variance lately. When the best way to look at results is in the context of hundreds of thousands of hands, and I'm only playing 15,000 hands per month, my perception of results is going to be pretty skewed while I go through them in real time.
That being said, even if I can conclude I'm a good player, that doesn't necessarily translate to making a living. I've identified several obstacles I'll have to overcome if I want to make my living this way: endurance, multitasking, game selection and discipline.
- Endurance - I struggle to play more than 20 hours per week. Experimenting with forcing myself to play more hours showed me that when I go beyond that amount, my focus suffers and I lose my edge. I like the lifestyle of only playing 20 hours per week, so I don't really have any plans to keep working on this. This doesn't necessarily count me out though, since averaging $50/hr for 20 hours per week gives me enough to make a decent living for now.
- Multi-tasking - I've had mixed results with multi-tabling. In terms of handling the pace of it, I had no problem 4-tabling $3/6 and still winning a healthy amount. But my results at $5/10 while 4-tabling were far from stellar. My best results in the mid-limits have come while 2-tabling, so it would probably be best to stick with 2 tables until my I start to improve my results. I do think that I'll be able to increase to 4 tables or possibly 6 or 8 eventually.
- Game selection - I'm defining game selection as choosing games where my edge is the greatest. I think I'm generally pretty good at choosing the best available tables based on average pot size and similar statistics, and also based on knowing who the weakest players are. But a big problem with my game selection is that I tend to stay at the tables when games get shorthanded and a weak player is still playing. For whatever reason, I just haven't had much success with shorthanded play online. At that point, the edge that I enjoyed when the table was full starts to disappear, so I ought to leave the table when it drops below 7 players.
- Discipline - Discipline encompasses the 3 points above, among other things. I need to force myself to play the most amount of hours that I can do while still playing my best. I need to stick with 2 tables when I can't keep up with the action above that. I need to avoid shorthanded games or tables where my position isn't good. While I'm playing I need to focus and not be distracted by AIM or ESPN.com or anything else, and if I feel tilt setting in I need to take a breather. Poker is a game, but if I'm playing for a living I need to approach it in a professional manner.
Bankroll
Playing poker for a living is a lot like running a small business. If I remember one thing from studying entrepreneurship in college, it is that a large percentage of small business failures can be attributed to undercapitalization. I'll get back to this point in a bit.
I've noted that poker has a huge amount of variance, and my results have certainly shown it that too (the bottom lines of my last 5 months: +8,000, +400, +9,000, -2,000, -500). How do you combat variance in poker? Well if you want your monthly results to be more consistent, the best way is to play a huge number of hands every month. So my lack of endurance and limited multi-tabling experience make me more susceptible to high variance. Some guys have no problem putting in 50 hours per week or more and playing 8 tables at a time, which greatly decreases their variance in the same time period, and increases the chance of their poker business being successful.
So if you don't combat variance with volume, how else can you? Capital reserves. Bankroll. If my expected monthly earn isn't significantly above my monthly expenses, I need a much larger bankroll to minimize my risk of ruin. I've known for a long time that my bankroll is smaller than it should be, given my monthly expenses. Ideally, with my bankroll I'd be playing lower limits. But given my cost of living and the other weakness I mentioned above, I decided I had to be in the middle limits, and accepted the risks.
I think that part of the reason for my weak results at $15/30 was that I was playing scared. I think that part of the reason my shorthanded play sucks is that it naturally has higher variance and I play scared. I think part of the reason for this losing streak is that a few bad sessions while playing well caused me to lose confidence and start playing scared and weak. If I had a bigger bankroll I wouldn't play scared, and my results would be better. I'm going to say "scared" a few more times. Scared, scared, scared.
Conclusion:
Clearly if I can't keep bring in cash, I'll have to get a real job and my poker career will have been an enjoyable failure. It doesn't seem likely that I'll put in a lot more hands, so volume won't be my key to success. So its got to be a combination of these things:
- Improve my hand playing skills
- Improve my game selection
- Improve my discipline
- Decrease my expenses
- Increase my bankroll
Idea: Sell My House
Trading the mortgage payment for cheap rent would decrease my expenses, and the cash infusion from my gains would increase my bankroll. That would allow me to play higher limits with less pressure, which should help improve my playing skills and income.
beatdown
I've been losing for more than 2 months now. That's a really long time.
I've tried just about everything I can think of to get back on my feet:
Since 9/1/05 I've played 34,524 hands in 188 hours, averaging 2.2 tables at any given time. I've lost 0.42BB/100 hands, or $29.33/hour for a total playing loss of $5,500. I've received some bonuses and rakeback that adds up to $2,600.
I've had times where I've felt like I was playing very well, times where I've felt like I was playing very poorly, and everything in between. But the results are always negative. I have no idea how I ever won $9,000 in a month two different times.
This all should explain my recent emphasis on advertising on this blog.
I've tried just about everything I can think of to get back on my feet:
- more hours per week
- less hours per week
- more tables at a time
- less tables at a time
- shorthanded
- different sites
- taking a few days off
- playing at different times
- sharing hands with friends
- reading more poker literature
- reading less poker literature
- adding a 2nd monitor
- killing homeless people for good luck
Since 9/1/05 I've played 34,524 hands in 188 hours, averaging 2.2 tables at any given time. I've lost 0.42BB/100 hands, or $29.33/hour for a total playing loss of $5,500. I've received some bonuses and rakeback that adds up to $2,600.
I've had times where I've felt like I was playing very well, times where I've felt like I was playing very poorly, and everything in between. But the results are always negative. I have no idea how I ever won $9,000 in a month two different times.
This all should explain my recent emphasis on advertising on this blog.
Monday, October 17, 2005
Back where I started
I decided to do some mid-month evaluation after yet another catastrophe at the tables, and much to my delight, I've calculated that my bankroll has dropped to exactly where it was when I began this foolish journey.
Now what?
Now what?
Wednesday, October 12, 2005
Observations
At work, I used to read ESPN all day. I'd estimate I averaged no less than 60 minutes a day reading ESPN articles with an excel spreadsheet ready to quickly flip to if someone walked by. 60 minutes is a very conservative estimate; I'm sure there were weeks where I averaged 3 hours per day. I devoted at least another 60 minutes to other topics, including my fantasy sports teams, Mark Cuban's blog, the latest news in science and technology, and tried to stay generally aware of what was going on in financial markets.
I spend very little time on any of those now. Since I quit the desk job, my records tell me I've spent 21.5 hours per week playing poker. I've watched a lot of movies and DVD TV shows (Sopranos, Lost, Curb Your Enthusiasm, Family Guy), and read a few books. I play way too much online Risk (the game of world domination!). I've played some basketball, soccer, and tennis. I've done some jogging and some drinking, and I cook a lot more. I read 2+2 for I'd guess an average of 90 minutes per day. At some point I decided I wanted to do more writing, and I've done a tiny bit but not much. I probably average 9 hours of sleep per night, which is glorious.
When people ask me what I do with my time, I don't really have an answer. I do most of the same things as I used to do, but now I just get more sleep, read different web pages, and don't spend 2 hours commuting. I guess I'm wasting away a similar amount of time as before, I just can't call it "work" now.
I spend very little time on any of those now. Since I quit the desk job, my records tell me I've spent 21.5 hours per week playing poker. I've watched a lot of movies and DVD TV shows (Sopranos, Lost, Curb Your Enthusiasm, Family Guy), and read a few books. I play way too much online Risk (the game of world domination!). I've played some basketball, soccer, and tennis. I've done some jogging and some drinking, and I cook a lot more. I read 2+2 for I'd guess an average of 90 minutes per day. At some point I decided I wanted to do more writing, and I've done a tiny bit but not much. I probably average 9 hours of sleep per night, which is glorious.
When people ask me what I do with my time, I don't really have an answer. I do most of the same things as I used to do, but now I just get more sleep, read different web pages, and don't spend 2 hours commuting. I guess I'm wasting away a similar amount of time as before, I just can't call it "work" now.
Sunday, October 09, 2005
Wallowing peppered with lies
Warning: The following could easily be construed as a bloggal vomit of self-pity. Proceed with caution.
In the 2.5 weeks since Sept 22
The poker games I'm in for the most part seem very good. I usually have several opponents who are consistently making obvious mistakes. I am extremely frustrated with this prolonged losing streak, and not experienced enough to have confidence in either explanation for it (bad luck/bad play). Luckily, losing thousands of dollars rather than earning money in this period is inconsequentially to me financially, since I'm independently wealthy.*
To further complicate matters, today PartyPoker separated itself from Empire, Eurobet, and the other skins, so my rakeback arrangement is most likely screwed. So it seems pretty likely that I'll effectively be paying higher rake to continue playing with Party's vast aquarium of horrendous players, rather than playing in Empire's tougher games with reduced fees. I'm a little bit concerned that a frenzy of withdrawal requests from Empire has some chance of screwing me out of the money I have deposited there, but hopefully that won't happen.
Hard to tell for sure how this whole Party situation will play out. My theory is that with any major change comes a major opportunity. I just haven't figured out what the opportunity is quite yet.
* - denotes a probable fabrication.
In the 2.5 weeks since Sept 22
- My net poker results are a loss of over $5,000.
- That's about 8,000 hands at mostly $10/20 and $15/30, with a BB/100 of (2.78).
- My VP$IP/PFR/AF in that stretch is 19.5/12.5/1.6.
- Won $ When Saw Flop is 36.59%
- Went to showdown 39%
- Won $ at SD 51%
- My computer started laughing at me when I lose hands.*
- A dear member of my family is facing a serious health issue.
- Water keeps dripping out of more and more places in my house. I assume it will cost a good deal of money to fix the leaks and damage.
- In a full-body stretch gone terribly awry, I somehow managed to hurt my neck playing poker today. I can't rotate it more than 20 degrees left or right.
- My penis fell off.*
The poker games I'm in for the most part seem very good. I usually have several opponents who are consistently making obvious mistakes. I am extremely frustrated with this prolonged losing streak, and not experienced enough to have confidence in either explanation for it (bad luck/bad play). Luckily, losing thousands of dollars rather than earning money in this period is inconsequentially to me financially, since I'm independently wealthy.*
To further complicate matters, today PartyPoker separated itself from Empire, Eurobet, and the other skins, so my rakeback arrangement is most likely screwed. So it seems pretty likely that I'll effectively be paying higher rake to continue playing with Party's vast aquarium of horrendous players, rather than playing in Empire's tougher games with reduced fees. I'm a little bit concerned that a frenzy of withdrawal requests from Empire has some chance of screwing me out of the money I have deposited there, but hopefully that won't happen.
Hard to tell for sure how this whole Party situation will play out. My theory is that with any major change comes a major opportunity. I just haven't figured out what the opportunity is quite yet.
* - denotes a probable fabrication.
Saturday, October 01, 2005
Perspective
A conversation with Dan helped me put things in perspective tonight. I've been distraught about my recent downswing, but the bottom line is that I've earned enough money playing poker over the last 6 months to cover my living expenses and keep paying my mortgage. My idea of success has been a bit distorted by hearing stories about people who have done very well, but I just need to focus on what I've done and what I can do.
I can do better in the next 6 months than I've done so far. I've learned some valuable lessons, and I have a solid gameplan going forward.
I can do better in the next 6 months than I've done so far. I've learned some valuable lessons, and I have a solid gameplan going forward.
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