Quick poker thought

While I'm feeling frisky, here's a poker boom thought that recently occurred to me.

I've had concerns that this whole poker explosion would dry up. The popular doomsday model is that the bad players lose enough money that they stop coming back, so without any fish, the sharks just have to feed on each other and everything gets much harder. Poker is a huge fad right now, so tons of dollars are flowing into the poker economy, enabling decent players like me to (barely) make a living. But when the fad dies, that money will stop coming. The best players will probably still make a living, but lots of marginal players like me will have to reenter the work force.

But what occurred to me is that poker's popularity has increased with its availability. 10 years ago, how many people lived close enough to a public card room to play poker regularly? It was basically just AC, Vegas, southern California and maybe a few other spots near Indian casinos or riverboats. So availability of poker was fairly limited. Today anyone with a computer and a credit card can play poker any time they want.

And even in those areas near the casinos, poker rooms were very mysterious and intimidating. But now coverage all over the TV has stripped poker of its seedy image, and commercials for online gambling make everyone forget about its ambiguous legal status.

People play games that are fun and available. Poker has always been fun, but it wasn't always available. Now people know that poker is a widely available entertainment option, and they'll spend a little less time in the theaters or bowling alleys. I'm sure eventually the poker craze will slow down, and maybe it already is doing that. But unless the government explicitly criminalizes online poker, there's going to be plenty of action for a long time.

Ron Artest

I never post here any more. But here's a Sports Guy quote on my favorite non-Terp NBA player. Go Terps tonight!

Highlight of my Clippers season so far: During a stoppage in the second half, Ron Artest was standing right near us by the 3-point line, with the name of his record album carved in the back of his head, of course. So somebody screamed out, "Hey Ron, I bought your album ... IT [STUNK]!!!!!" First, everyone giggled. Then we quickly realized that he might charge into the stands and inexplicably beat the hell out of one of us. So Ron turns around, searches the faces to see who yelled at him, finally finds the guy ... and gives him a big wink. High comedy. I like Ron Artest. He's my favorite NBA player who was ever suspended for a season for attacking a fan.

another birthday, more pictures

Happy 23rd birthday to my archnemesis girlfriend. It has been widely suggested that she is way out of my league, and I cant really dispute it.

I've been asked to clarify that the picture of me was modified by some photoshop effect that squeezes the image in towards the middle. It disturbs me a bit that people didn't realize this. I'm ugly, but I'm not quite that ugly.

Top Pure Comedies

My favorite pure comedies. As this list changes, I'll bump it up.

1.) The Big Lebowski
2.) Monty Python and the Holy Grail
3.) Office Space
4.) There's Something About Mary
5.) Dogma
6.) Swingers
7.) Anchorman: The Legend of Ron Burgundy
8.) South Park: Bigger Long & Uncut
9.) Jay and Silent Bob Strike Back
10.) American Pie Movies
11.) Old School
12.) Zoolander
13.) School of Rock
14.) This Is Spinal Tap
15.) Clerks
16.) Me, Myself and Irene
17.) Road Trip

Honorable Mention: Dumb and Dumber, Mallrats, Austin Powers Movies, Freddy Got Fingered, Dirty Work, Dead Man On Campus, Mr. Deeds, Napoleon Dynamite, Dude Where's My Car, Groundhog Day

Noteworthy Omissions: Billy Madison, Happy Gilmore, Ace Ventura, Caddy Shack

JUAN.

Juan is getting some love from Walton on ESPN's coverage of the Blazers game tonight.

I love foosball

Not that you care, but this is a real IM conversation between me and Walt.

Walt: i wish i had work tomorrow so i could play foosball

Adspar:

step 1: go to sports authority

step 2: spend $350 on the best foosball table they have

step 3: buy a case of sam adams winter brew

step 4: inform sparks of your completion of the 1st 3 steps

step 5: play foosball and drink beer with sparks for 25 consecutive hours

Walt: im not going to spend $350 on a foosball table that will get used all of 3 times

Walt: if that

Adspar: dude its worth it

Adspar: if you have a foosball table, i'll come over at least once a month

Adspar: my presence is definitely worth a one time $350 hit

Walt: haha

Walt: we'll see how big my bonus is this year

Walt: it's also difficult to move a foosball table in a miata

Adspar: they come in a silly box probably

Adspar: or they deliver

Adspar: or we could rent a uhual

Low limit so far

Since Sunday I've played 8,047 hands of $3/6 and won 2.05 BB/100, which is a rate I'm happy with. I've spread that play around a few different sites to step up my bonus-whoring efforts. I'm reasonably pleased with the volume of play I'm putting in, but I can't allow myself to let up on that.

Most of that play is 4 or 5 tabling during the day, which is kind of weird. I've been getting up at 5am and playing off an on until about 5pm. I've been able to listen to the Junks and Bill O'Reilly, while I play and go for runs around lunch time. It is a fairly enjoyable routine.

tiny good deed

For as much as I criticize and complain, I don't really do much to make anything better. But here's something that even a lazy bastard like me can do.

Go here.

The link contains information about "Jessica's Law" and gives you the option to automatically send this email to your state's governor.

I urge you to do everything in your power to see that our state enacts a version of "Jessica's Law." As you probably know, the Florida law was named in memory of 9-year old Jessica Lunsford, who was raped and killed by a repeat sex offender. The law establishes a minimum 25-year sentence for anyone convicted of molesting a young child. It also requires that paroled sex offenders wear a GPS positioning unit so police can keep track of them at all times. Research shows that criminals who prey on young children tend to repeat their crimes many times. Far too many young boys and girls have been brutalized by sex predators that should have been locked away. These abusers need to be kept off the streets and out of our neighborhoods. Enacting some form of "Jessica's Law" will protect our youngest and most vulnerable citizens, and will save lives. I hope you will get behind this legislation immediately. Thank you very much for your concern and your help.

Its a tiny thing, but I feel like I did something worthwhile.

Followup: the email from the link above didn't work for Maryland, so you can go here to send Governor Ehrlich a message.

poker = work

Many wannabe poker pros pursue the life out of a desire not to work. These people are in for a rude awakening. Playing poker well requires hard work. It is nice to work at something you love — but it’s still work. And to succeed, you need to treat it that way.
- Roy Cooke

He's absolutely right, which I have learned the hard way. I'm hoping that since I was able to (barely) get by while doing it the wrong way, I'll be very successful doing it the right way.

Ultimate Bet

In honor of my return to lower limits, I've added Ultimate Bet to my poker site information page. I've played more hands at UB than any site other than Party. Click the banner, sign up, and play lots of hands! Its like welfare for your favorite poker chump.

Back to where it all started

Going back to 4-tabling $3/6. Fortunately, I'm able to view this as a simple business decision. I don't have any problem playing lower, in terms of ego. I need to maximize income given my risk tolerance, and this move is the best way to do it.

Two big advantages to playing lower: the players are so much worse, and I don't have to be afraid of a big loss. Another noteworthy advantage is that it is easier to find a good game any time.

Worse Players: Loose/Passives vs Loose/Aggressives

• There are some loose players at the mid-levels, but there are fewer and they're usually much more aggressive. Loose $3/6 players routinely call til the river and then fold when they miss their inside straight draw. Loose $15/30 players check-raise that draw on the turn just to fuck with you. Not that money can't be made from the latter, but on a weak bankroll, I want my opponents to be as passive as possible. More aggressive games = more variance. I can't afford variance any more.

Worse Players: Tight/Passives vs Tight/Aggressives

• The majority of players at $3/6 and up are somewhat tight, but again they are more aggressive at higher limits. In my return to $3/6, I was amazed by how often all my opponents folded to my flop continuation bet (After raising preflop I almost always bet the flop, regardless of whether my hand improved. There are exceptions, but not many.) This rarely happens at mid-limits. It is so much easier to steal small pots at the lower limits.

Fearlessness

• As my losing streak worsened and my bankroll crumbled, it got to the point where I was afraid of losing. 50BB fluctuations are a very common occurrence in limit hold'em, but I couldn't handle a $1,000 swing at $10/20 any more. Playing scared takes away some important tools, and even bad aggressive players know how to pounce on weakness. I can play fearlessly at $3/6, giving me a big advantage.

Unfortunately, its harder to make a living at lower stakes, so I'm going to have to drastically increase my volume. 30~40 hours per week of 4-tabling is still better than 40 hours per week in an office. I might try 6-tabling.

Hopefully after a few months I will have rebuilt my bankroll and my confidence, and I'll be in a much better position to succeed at the mid-limits. While I was able to post a winrate of 1BB/100 hands in 50,000 hands at $15/30 and $10/20 I still think there are some big flaws in my game, and not all of them fall under the "if my bankroll was bigger..." excuse. I need to patch those holes.

Alternatively, if I find that I am unable to beat these games for enough to make ends meet, I'll know that I'm just not good enough to play poker for a living, and I can walk away knowing that I gave it my best shot and went down swinging.

easy equation

saturday night, tiny bankroll, no confidence...

clearly a visit to low limits is in order.

totally lost

In the short time since this post, I've managed to lose another $1,700. Whatever remained of my confidence is completely gone, and I doubt I will keep playing $10/20 since my bankroll is at about a third of where it was a couple months ago.

outlaws!

this is bullshit

Computer problems

My computer has been getting slower and slower, so I've decided to reformat my hard drive and get more RAM. Preparing for the reformat, I'm trying to set up a home network so I can easily transfer a bunch of my files onto Kira's computer, but we can't figure out how to do the network right. We've gotten it so that I can see her computer on the network, but can't access her shared file. She's never been able to see my computer yet. Neither of us are money enough to figure this out. Argh.

I can't play Civ4 at a reasonable speed until I figure this out, which is a big problem.

much props to Kira for snapping this picture last weekend

Methodology

Problem:

I've had 2 losing months in a row.

Hypotheses:

• I am a good but not great poker player.
• I have the skills to make a decent living playing limit hold'em.
• I could expect to average between 1.0 and 1.5 BB/100 hands in most full handed mid-limit games on PartyPoker.
• Deviation between actual results and the above is explainable by variance and psychological factors.
  

Background Info/Observations:

Definition: Earning 1.0 BB/100 hands means averaging $20 profit for every 100 hands at $10/20, or $30 for every 100 hands at $15/30, etc.

• A good player can earn 1.0-1.5 BB/100. A great player can make over 2.0 BB/100.
• It takes 50,000 to 200,000 hands to have much confidence in the accuracy of a winrate, because variance is so high.
• It isn't uncommon for a good or even a great player to have 20,000 hand stretches of losing or breakeven results.
• These are based on my interpretation of the collective wisdom of the message boards at 2+2. There are lots of discussions about these topics you can search for at the site.
  

Facts about my overall mid-limit record:

• 19,000 hands at $15/30, won 0.54 BB/100
  
• 32,000 hands at $10/20, won 1.37 BB/100
  

Facts about my record during the last 2 months:

• 8,900 hands at $15/30, lost 2.6 BB/100
  
• 19,000 hands at $10/20, won 0.54 BB/100
  

Discussion:

It seems pretty clear to me that my results are consistent with a good player who has hit the bad side of routine variance lately. When the best way to look at results is in the context of hundreds of thousands of hands, and I'm only playing 15,000 hands per month, my perception of results is going to be pretty skewed while I go through them in real time.

That being said, even if I can conclude I'm a good player, that doesn't necessarily translate to making a living. I've identified several obstacles I'll have to overcome if I want to make my living this way: endurance, multitasking, game selection and discipline.

• Endurance - I struggle to play more than 20 hours per week. Experimenting with forcing myself to play more hours showed me that when I go beyond that amount, my focus suffers and I lose my edge. I like the lifestyle of only playing 20 hours per week, so I don't really have any plans to keep working on this. This doesn't necessarily count me out though, since averaging $50/hr for 20 hours per week gives me enough to make a decent living for now.
  

• Multi-tasking - I've had mixed results with multi-tabling. In terms of handling the pace of it, I had no problem 4-tabling $3/6 and still winning a healthy amount. But my results at $5/10 while 4-tabling were far from stellar. My best results in the mid-limits have come while 2-tabling, so it would probably be best to stick with 2 tables until my I start to improve my results. I do think that I'll be able to increase to 4 tables or possibly 6 or 8 eventually.
  

• Game selection - I'm defining game selection as choosing games where my edge is the greatest. I think I'm generally pretty good at choosing the best available tables based on average pot size and similar statistics, and also based on knowing who the weakest players are. But a big problem with my game selection is that I tend to stay at the tables when games get shorthanded and a weak player is still playing. For whatever reason, I just haven't had much success with shorthanded play online. At that point, the edge that I enjoyed when the table was full starts to disappear, so I ought to leave the table when it drops below 7 players.
  

• Discipline - Discipline encompasses the 3 points above, among other things. I need to force myself to play the most amount of hours that I can do while still playing my best. I need to stick with 2 tables when I can't keep up with the action above that. I need to avoid shorthanded games or tables where my position isn't good. While I'm playing I need to focus and not be distracted by AIM or ESPN.com or anything else, and if I feel tilt setting in I need to take a breather. Poker is a game, but if I'm playing for a living I need to approach it in a professional manner.

Bankroll

Playing poker for a living is a lot like running a small business. If I remember one thing from studying entrepreneurship in college, it is that a large percentage of small business failures can be attributed to undercapitalization. I'll get back to this point in a bit.

I've noted that poker has a huge amount of variance, and my results have certainly shown it that too (the bottom lines of my last 5 months: +8,000, +400, +9,000, -2,000, -500). How do you combat variance in poker? Well if you want your monthly results to be more consistent, the best way is to play a huge number of hands every month. So my lack of endurance and limited multi-tabling experience make me more susceptible to high variance. Some guys have no problem putting in 50 hours per week or more and playing 8 tables at a time, which greatly decreases their variance in the same time period, and increases the chance of their poker business being successful.

So if you don't combat variance with volume, how else can you? Capital reserves. Bankroll. If my expected monthly earn isn't significantly above my monthly expenses, I need a much larger bankroll to minimize my risk of ruin. I've known for a long time that my bankroll is smaller than it should be, given my monthly expenses. Ideally, with my bankroll I'd be playing lower limits. But given my cost of living and the other weakness I mentioned above, I decided I had to be in the middle limits, and accepted the risks.

I think that part of the reason for my weak results at $15/30 was that I was playing scared. I think that part of the reason my shorthanded play sucks is that it naturally has higher variance and I play scared. I think part of the reason for this losing streak is that a few bad sessions while playing well caused me to lose confidence and start playing scared and weak. If I had a bigger bankroll I wouldn't play scared, and my results would be better. I'm going to say "scared" a few more times. Scared, scared, scared.

Conclusion:

Clearly if I can't keep bring in cash, I'll have to get a real job and my poker career will have been an enjoyable failure. It doesn't seem likely that I'll put in a lot more hands, so volume won't be my key to success. So its got to be a combination of these things:

• Improve my hand playing skills
• Improve my game selection
• Improve my discipline
• Decrease my expenses
• Increase my bankroll

Idea: Sell My House

Trading the mortgage payment for cheap rent would decrease my expenses, and the cash infusion from my gains would increase my bankroll. That would allow me to play higher limits with less pressure, which should help improve my playing skills and income.

beatdown

I've been losing for more than 2 months now. That's a really long time.

I've tried just about everything I can think of to get back on my feet:

• more hours per week
• less hours per week
• more tables at a time
• less tables at a time
• shorthanded
• different sites
• taking a few days off
• playing at different times
• sharing hands with friends
• reading more poker literature
• reading less poker literature
  
• adding a 2nd monitor
• killing homeless people for good luck
  

Yesterday I played some no-limit. I'm thinking about 4 or 6 tabling $2/4 for a few hours sometime soon. Anything to give me a fresh perspective and a few dollars.

Since 9/1/05 I've played 34,524 hands in 188 hours, averaging 2.2 tables at any given time. I've lost 0.42BB/100 hands, or $29.33/hour for a total playing loss of $5,500. I've received some bonuses and rakeback that adds up to $2,600.

I've had times where I've felt like I was playing very well, times where I've felt like I was playing very poorly, and everything in between. But the results are always negative. I have no idea how I ever won $9,000 in a month two different times.

This all should explain my recent emphasis on advertising on this blog.

200% Bonus at Absolute Poker

As I mentioned here, I think Absolute Poker is a great poker room for getting started playing poker online. Now is an especially great time to pad your bankroll with their limited time 200% bonus on your first deposit (I think it runs for all of November, but this could change). Just enter Bonus Code AP200 on your first deposit and they'll give you up to $200 free.

Click one of my Absolute Poker links to support frictionlessness and cripplingly poor social skills.

Thanks to a few people who have signed up with one of my ads!