Any questions?

Today I played some poker. The following hand happened. I offer it without further comment for your entertainment.

Full Tilt 1/2 Hold'em (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: HTML)


Preflop: adspar is UTG with Kh, 6h.

UTGA raises, 2 folds, Button calls, SB calls, 1 fold.



Flop: (7 SB) Ks, 4c, 9h (3 players)

SB checks, UTGA bets, Button calls, SB calls.



Turn: (5 BB) 4h (3 players)

SB checks, UTGA bets, Button calls, SB calls.



River: (8 BB) 6c (3 players)

SB checks, UTGA bets, Button calls, SB calls.



Final Pot: 11 BB


Results:

SB has 8d Th (one pair, fours).

adspar has Kh 6h (two pair, kings and sixes).

Button has 3s 3d (two pair, fours and threes).

Outcome: adspar wins 11 BB.

While that was happening, so was this:

Good links of the day

Poker: 50/100 hand against mahatma at UB

For the interested but unaware, mahatma is a legend of high-stakes online poker. This excellent thread about playing a NL hand against him illustrates how completely he can baffle his opponents, and gives some good insight into thought processes in the big no-limit games.


Bias: Stephen Carter on the ACLU

Ed Brayton makes the point that people tend to demonize their opposition, especially in matters of ideology like politics or religion.

But rational people, people who care about truth and accuracy, must fight this tendency. We must try and evaluate every claim using the same criteria. Does the evidence support it? Are the conclusions drawn from the evidence logical? Any claim that fails to meet those criteria should be rejected, regardless of whether it supports our agenda or not. Likewise, any claim that withstands that scrutiny should be accepted as valid, regardless of whether it supports our agenda or not. None of us will ever be Mr. Spock, but we should strive to evaluate all arguments as though we have no stake in the outcome.

Cognitive Science: Cognitive science podcasts from Science and the City

I haven't listened to them yet, but I came across this list of cognitive science podcasts. Should be cool.



Offensive Humor: Sarah Silverman music video

A sweet little love song from the funniest female comedian I can think of.

For my poker-starved readers

Here's some rare poker content.

I logged on to Absolute Poker in the wee hours of the morning to play my usual $5/10 6-max hold'em game. I was disappointed to see there were only 2 tables going on a Friday night, and that neither of them looked particularly easy. I was just about to head over to Party Poker, when I decided to check out the $10/20 action. I noticed a pair of 6-max games that looked pretty soft, so I decided to take a shot at that limit. I learned that I'm not ready to stomach the swings of this game on a regular basis, but I was able to book a nice win. Here were a few highlight hands, with very little commentary.

Hand 1: I think you're bullshit!

6 handed $10/20 hold'em.
4 folds to me in the small blind with 2♥2♣
I raise to $20 and the big blind calls.

flop ($40): 3♦ A♦ J♠

I bet $10, he raises to $20, I call.

turn ($80): A♠

I check, he bets $20, I call.

river ($120): 7♥

I check, he bets $20, I call.

He shows K♦8♦

I win $157.

Comments: Don't know my opponent, so I assume he plays like the generic 6-max player. I thought if he had an Ace, he'd have reraised preflop or waited til the turn to raise. And if he had a Jack or another pocket pair he'd have either raised preflop or just called all the way. So I figured a flush draw was his most likely hand.

Hand 2: Value bets or bluffs?

4 handed $10/20 hold'em.
1 fold, button raises to $20, small blind folds, I call in big blind with K♥9♥

flop ($45): 8♣ Q♣ 9♦

I bet $10, he raises to $20, I call.

turn ($85): 5♣

I bet $20, he raises to $40, I raise to $60, he calls.

river ($205): Q♦

I bet $20, he folds. I take down $203.

Comments: I suck at reading hands, so I just put lots of bets in and hope it works. This time it did. Opponent in this hand is very good, so I assumed he was capable of folding a decent made hand or semibluffing (betting/raising with a strong draw). My assumption must have been right, since he obviously he did one of those things.

Hand 3: Nice turn card.

6 handed $10/20 hold'em

UTG calls $10, next guy calls $10, fold, I raise to $20, small blind calls, big blind folds, 2 more callers. I have A♦J♦

flop ($90): 8♥ 7♠ 5♠

Small blind bets $10. 3 callers.

turn ($130): J♥

Small blind bets $20, big blind calls, next guy raises to $40, I raise to $60, small blind caps it to $80, big blind folds, 2 callers.

river ($390): 4♥

Small blind bets $20, 2 callers.

Small blind has J♠6♠ (an 8-high straight)
next guy has J♣9♠ (a pair of Jacks with 9-kicker)

Small blind wins $447

Comment: Small blind was the reason I was in this game. He saw the flop almost every hand, bet and raised often with no hand or on draws, and check/called with his strong hands. The guy with J9 was also loose and weird. My flop call I thought was a no-brainer, even without a backdoor flush draw. Given how bad both players are, I couldn't fold top pair top kicker on the turn, so I figured 3betting was the best play. It turned out I was a 52% favorite to win the hand, so my 3bet (and small blind's cap) was very profitable for me with 2 callers. Too bad I couldn't just claim 52% of the $390 that was in the pot before the river.

thank me later

If you know anything about poker and don't have an account at Absolute, read this hand and then go sign up immediately. When you make your first deposit, use code AP200 and get a 200% bonus. Proceed to enjoy playing against these kind of opponents:


4 handed $5/10 hold'em

preflop

utg calls $5
adspar raises to $10 with K♦K♥
sb calls $7
bb raises to $15
utg calls $10
adspar caps $20
everyone calls.

flop - 16 small bets in pot

2♣ A♣ 4♦

sb checks
bb checks
utg checks
adspar bets $5
everyone folds

Redemption?

This hand happened about 14 hours after the last hand I wrote about. At the time this hand happened, I had been 3-tabling $15/30 on Party for an hour and was down about $1,800 and extremely frustrated with a $3,000+ downswing in less than 24 hours. After this hand, I somehow I managed to finish the session an hour later with a $7 profit. These swings give me indigestion.

A loose and horrible player limped in from middle position, an unknown player who had posted a big blind checked, and I raised with

A♠ K♠.

They both called. 3 to the flop for 6 small bets.

6♦ 9♦ T♦.

The idiot limper bet out and the next player folded. Lots of players will bet at a scary coordinated flop like that with just a big diamond. If he just had a big diamond, he wouldn't fold but I was winning. And if he actually had a pair, he'd be afraid that I had him beat and would revert to check-calling the rest of the way. Taking back control of the hand seemed appropriate here, so I raised. He called the raise and the turn was the

Q♠.

He bet out again, making the pot 6 big bets. My first thought was that he had the Q♦ in his hand, but the more I thought about it, the more it seemed like he'd just check and call with that kind of hand. I concluded that he most likely had either a big diamond or a pair of tens without much kicker, so either I was ahead or I had a lot of top pair or straight outs. So I called. Just like the last hand, the river paired sixes with the same

6♥.

He bet out again. Once again, it seemed like a strong hand would have check-raised me at some point, and a medium strength hand like T♣ 8♣ would have checked the river planning to call a bet. So I called and beat his K♦ 5♠ bluff to win the $302 pot.

Winning is more fun than losing.

Eternal Shame

I am not a good poker player.

Sure, I've been able to scratch a living for half a year by taking money from the retarded chimps that inhabit the online poker world, but that is by no means enough to convince me I'm good. I'm getting there though, and every once in a while something happens that reminds which side of the line I'm on.

This hand will haunt my dreams for many nights. I'm posting it here as a monument to my eternal shame.

When this hand was played, I was 3 hours into a session and down about $1500 4-tabling $15/30 on Party. The games were insanely good, even for a Saturday night, and my luck had been insanely bad so far, putting my Zen-like patience to the test.


Some idiot raised in early position, and I reraised him with

A♣T♣

which I won't always play that way, but this guy was very loose and aggressive and wild so I wanted to isolate him and see a flop heads-up. Everyone else folded, and he called. The flop came down:

9♣ 6♠ 3♦

He bet out. This meant I was probably winning, because he'd probably try to check and raise if he had a pair. I raised and he called. The turn was the

2♠

He checked again, and called my bet. The river was the seemingly harmless

6♥

so I was surprised that he decided to bet out. I replayed the hand in my mind and decided that he must be bluffing, because I believed there was no paired hand he would have played the way he played the flop. Once I determined he was bluffing, I also had to face the prospect that he could still have me beat with an Ace with a better kicker. So I decided to raise, figuring he might fold AK, AQ or AJ.

He rocked my world by quickly reraising. As soon as it happened, I stopped thinking clearly.

I stared at the board:

9♣ 6♠ 3♦ 2♠ 6♥

What the fuck could this guy have?? I had bet and raised at every opportunity, and he'd have to think I had a big pocket pair. He couldn't think I'd actually fold here. But I still just couldn't imagine he had a good hand. I'd seen him bluff several times, but I had also seen him give up on a bluff when it was obvious it wouldn't work. But damn this river 3-bet was so quick that it felt very very weird. As the timer was running down, I considered capping for the same reasons I had put in the first raise, but finally convinced myself that I wasn't thinking clearly because I was having a rough session, and that capping the river with no pair was too crazy. I folded.

He showed

J♠7♠

to taunt me as he scooped the $382 pot that should have been mine.

Looking back on the hand, my reasoning and my play was absolutely perfect until I raised his river bet. Even that river raise could have been good, but I never considered that he might 3-bet me. My reason for the raise was that it might force him to fold a better Ace, but I should have thought back to preflop and realized that he would have probably capped AK or AQ, and maybe even AJ. So without much chance of him having a better hand than mine that would fold to my raise, I guess just calling would have been better. There aren't many players who would put that reraise in on a total bluff, and with that paired board and the strength I had shown, I just never imagined he would reraise bluff.

The lesson for me is obvious - be prepared. My failure to consider what I'd do if he 3bet cost me a huge pot, which was a complete disaster, and especially painful on a night like this one. If I had thought about the possibility of him 3betting, and if I had realized that he would have reraised preflop with better Aces, I would have concluded that since I'd fold to his 3bet that I should just call his river bet. God I wish I could have pulled the trigger on that river cap...

I'm not a good player, but I'm getting close.

Raising the river with the worst possible hand

Party Poker 10/20 Hold'em (9 handed)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with 2♥2♣
3 folds, MP2 calls, Hero calls, CO calls, Button calls, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: (6 SB) 5♦, 5♥, 4♥(6 players)
SB checks, BB checks, MP2 checks, Hero bets, CO folds, Button folds, SB folds, BB folds, MP2 calls.

Turn: (4 BB) 6♦ (2 players)
MP2 checks, Hero bets, MP2 calls.

River: (6 BB) 6♠ (2 players)
MP2 bets, Hero raises, MP2 folds.

Final Pot: 9 BB


Normally I don't put any more money in the pot without flopping my set, but in this hand I bet the flop and turn because I thought it was highly likely I had the best hand. When MP2 called the turn, I figured he probably had overcards and a heart flush draw, but not a good flush draw because he probably would have bet the flop. So he probably had something like T♥8♥. Although a hand like 3♥3♣ or 4♣3♣ also seemed possible.

The river seemed like the worst possible card for my hand, since now I'm playing the board. But when he bet out it seemed like a desperate bluff attempt consistent with a busted heart draw or a pair of 3s. So I took a chance and raised. If he had called my raise, he would have won the pot with any hand except for 43, 33, 42, and 22. Those hands would have won half of it.

I don't know if it was smart, but this bluff won me $177.

Hyperbole? Probably not...

This is the most amazing hand of poker I've ever played.


Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (8 handed)

Preflop: Hero is CO with Kc, Ad. MP2 posts a blind of $3.
2 folds, MP1 calls, MP2 (poster) checks, Hero raises, 1 fold, BB calls, MP1 calls, MP2 3-bets, Hero caps, BB folds, MP1 calls, MP2 folds.

Flop: (13.33 SB) 5s, 3d, Qc (3 players)
MP1 checks, Hero bets, MP1 folds.

Final Pot: 7.16 BB


I almost just called the 3-bet, but said to myself "I guess I'll cap and maybe someone will fold." And then I laughed, because the idea of someone folding was preposterous. And then 2 people folded.

Has anyone ever seen a preflop limp(check)-3bet-fold??

And then MP1 folds the flop getting over 14 to 1 on the call. Astonishing.

Fun and games

I'm not a big fan of FullTilt but they have a 50% rebuy bonus going, and I'm trying to branch out, so I bought back into that site. I instantly remembered how they never have many hold'em games going and the bonuses take forever to earn back. I doubt I'll play there enough to earn all $300 within the 60 day window. But while I was sitting in either a $2/4 or $3/6 shorthanded game, an interesting hand arose, and hilarity ensued. (Non-poker people may or may not agree on the hilariousness.)

Another reason Full Tilt sucks is that they don't offer hand histories, so I'm recounting this hand from memory...

Preflop - 6 handed

• me in the small blind: A♥9♠

• 2 donkeys limp. Button raises. I call cause I could easily have the best hand. Big Blind 3-bets. All call.

Flop - 5 players, 15 small bets in the pot

• board: 8♥ 6♥ 3♣

• I bet out because I figure the BB will raise his overpair, which will probably get everyone else to fold. That cleans up my Ace outs and maybe gets overcards out if pairing my 9 would be good, and I have the backdoor flush draw and a possible weak straight draw. The pot is huge, so its worth taking this shot.

• I bet, big blind raises, all fold to me and I call.
  

• Sweet, exactly what I wanted.

Turn - 2 players, 9.5 big bets in the pot.

• board: T♥

• Now I picked up the flush draw, plus an inside straight draw. I figure I have 9 outs to the nut flush, plus 3 Aces and 3 sevens for probable winners. That's 15 outs of the 46 unseen cards, so I have an easy call getting 10.5 to 1 from the pot.

• I check, big blind bets, I call.

River - 2 players, 11.5 big bets in the pot

• board: A♦

• Sweet, I rivered top pair. No point betting it, but I probably win.

• I check, big blind bets, I call.
• I drag the 13.5 big bet pot after big blind shows 9♦9♣

This hand and the hand I posted earlier with the pocket aces are good examples of how big pots force you to change your strategy considerably. Note that in this pot I bet the flop with what I knew was the worst hand, but in the other hand I checked the flop with what I knew was probably the best hand. I think the circumstances of each hand made this backwards strategy appropriate.

Anyway, I mentioned that hilarity ensued. I very rarely engage my opponents in chat, in fact I usually turn the chat feature off, but this was too good to pass up. The big blind was pretty upset about losing a big pot on the last card, so he begins berating me for what he thinks is bad play. It always pisses me off when I see players criticize their opponents' play.

Big Blind says - "That was absolutely horrible"

He is insulting me, telling me my play was horrible. Now keep in mind that I'm pretty proud of myself because I used some fairly sophisticated moves that paid off. Also note that this guy went a little overboard with his middle pocket pair. If he hadn't 3bet preflop I probably would have just check-folded on the flop, although maybe someone else would have sucked out on him. But that is the nature of middle pocket pairs. The point is that he brought this "bad beat" upon himself.

I reply - "Yeah betting the river there didn't make too much sense for you. Horrible."

I turn it around on him. He probably shouldn't have bet the river. Lots of opponents will call until the river with a hand containing an ace or a ten, so checking probably would have been a better play.

Big blind says - "Well I figured your hand hit the flop... you know, since you called a reraise."

Actually I called a raise not a reraise, but who's keeping track. So he is now defending his river bet, saying he figured my hand was made on the flop and that the Ace didn't help me. I love how it started out with him criticizing me, and now he's flopping around trying to defend his own play.

I reply: "Horrible figuring."

Outzinged, he pretty much gives up on the "horrible' line of conversation, but is still fuming mad.

Big blind says: "I love it when idiots fall a$$ backwards into a hand and then act like they played it right"

This is so replete with irony:

1. At no point in our little conversation did I ever defend my play to him. I didn't act like I played it right; I simply questioned his play, but he's too mad and/or stupid to realize that.

2. Second, as I've already mentioned, with the possible exception of my preflop call, I think I did play my hand right, but he's not a good enough player to realize that. And I didn't fall into that hand, I had to work hard for it! But to his ignorant a$, my play looked idiotic. (By the way, I find it hilarious when angry players find ways around the poker software's auto censoring: a$, fu_ck you, chit, etc. Where there's a will, there's a way.)

3. If you believe your opponent is such a bad player, why would you tell him? Criticism is going to piss a person off, which usually has one of two effects - it is either going to make them play better, or it will make them leave. Do you really want your opponents to get better? Do you really want a horrible player to leave your game?

I was content to simply enjoy irony #1 without further comment. As for irony #2, I felt no need to defend my play. I didn't want to educate him any more than I had already done by questioning his river bet, which I was only willing to do because I knew I wouldn't be playing in this game much longer. On that note, I figured I'd teach him irony lesson #3.

I responded: "You are mean. I don't want to play with you any more. Your meanness is driving this bad player away from your game."

And I left the table.

Huge Pot

Hints:
UTG = Under the Gun = first person to act after the blinds
UTGB= Under the Gun B = 2nd person to act after the blinds
MP = Middle Position
Button = last person to act on all betting rounds

Party Poker 10/20 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop:
UTG raises, UTGB 3-bets, MP1 calls, 1 fold, MP3 calls, 1 fold, Button caps, 2 folds, UTG calls, UTGB calls, MP1 calls, MP3 calls.


Flop:
21.50 SB = $215 in the pot. 5 players for 4 bets each.

8♦, 3♥, 2♣

UTG checks, UTGB checks, MP1 checks, MP3 checks, Button bets, UTG calls, UTGB calls, MP1 calls, MP3 calls.


Turn:
13.25 BB = $265 in the pot. 5 players still in.

2♠

UTG bets, UTGB raises, MP1 calls, MP3 folds, Button folds, UTG calls.

River:
19.25 BB = $385 in the pot. 3 players still in.

K♦

UTG checks, UTGB bets, MP1 calls, UTG folds.

Final Pot: 21.25 BB = $425



Results and commentary in white below (highlight to read):

UTGB has Ah As (two pair, aces and twos).

MP1 has 7c 7s (two pair, sevens and twos).

Outcome: UTGB wins 21.25 BB.

I had the Aces. After 5 people see a capped flop, my priority is maximizing my chance to win the pot, as opposed to maximizing the size of the pot. I didn't raise the flop because it would have still been right for almost any hand to call me. Nobody would have folded and everyone would have odds to call if I bet the turn. By not raising, I induced UTG to bet out on the turn, giving me the chance to raise it to $40 and force 2 people out, and forcing the guy with 77 to make an incorrect call.

This was the biggest pot I've won in a long time.

That oughta teach him

I've been increasingly annoyed by my PartyPoker opponents' growing tendency to not raise preflop with AA or KK. I think that they are misapplying a no-limit concept to the limit game. In no-limit, it is sometimes a good move to just call the blind in early position with a big hand in hopes that someone will raise you from behind, and then you get to put in a massive reraise. But in fixed limit games, especially games where you are unlikely to see the same opponents ever again, I think that anything other than raising with these hands is horrible poker.

Really, I'm glad that my opponents are grossly misplaying their hands, but the deceptive nature of this move has cost me a few bets recently. So that, plus my general disdain for mindless trendy idiots has me pretty worked up about this issue. Tonight I got some revenge on one of these assholes.

In a $5/10 Hold'em game on Party, "asshole" called my $5 big blind in early position.

Asshole: K♠K♣

Everyone folded to me in the big blind, and I checked.

Me: A♣ 3♠

I would have folded if he had raised. Instead, I saw a free flop with $12 in the pot.

Flop ($12): 9♥, 7♣, Q♦

I check because I have nothing, and the asshole checks because he's an asshole. I would have folded if he had bet, but instead we saw a free turn card.

Turn ($12): A♦

Now I have a pair of Aces but no kicker. I check because the pot is small and I won't know what to do if I get raised, but also because he'd be likely to bet a lot of hands worse than mine at this point, which is what happens. Asshole bets $10 because he's an asshole and I call it.

River ($32): 6♠

I check for the same reasons, he bets again for the same reason, and I call and win the $49.50 pot (net of the $2.50 rake) with my pair of Aces.

Lets review my opponent's four decisions this hand.

Preflop
Call, instead of raising and winning the blinds uncontested

Flop
Check, instead of betting and winning the pot

Turn
Bet at a tiny pot with the worst hand

River
Bet at a small pot with the worst hand



Yup, he misplayed every single action. Seriously, you should sign up for Party Poker.

How am I losing?

How am I losing when these are my opponents? Look at this...

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (9 handed)
Preflop: WeepForMe is Button with Th, Ah. UTG calls, 4 folds, CO calls, WeepForMe raises, 1 fold, BB calls, UTG calls, CO calls.
Flop: (8.33 SB) 4s, 4c, 4d (4 players)BB checks, UTG checks, CO checks, WeepForMe bets, BB calls, UTG calls, CO folds.
Turn: (5.66 BB) 2s (3 players)BB checks, UTG checks, WeepForMe bets, BB calls, UTG calls.
River: (8.66 BB) 7d (3 players)BB checks, UTG checks, WeepForMe checks.
Final Pot: 8.66 BB
Results below: BB has Kd Ts (three of a kind, fours). UTG has Ad 9s (three of a kind, fours). WeepForMe has Th Ah (three of a kind, fours). Outcome: WeepForMe wins 8.66 BB.

This is weak passive poker from my 2 opponents here. Limping UTG (UTG = Under the Gun = 1st person to act after the blinds) with A9o is generally awful, mainly for the exact reason illustrated by this hand - if you are up against a better Ace you are in big trouble. I think calling a raise from a solid player with KTo from the big blind is a pretty bad play also, because too often you are up against a better King or a better Ten. Both of these guys called flop and turn bets with only 3 outs.

How can I be losing to these guys? Its not just the passive, suspicious call stations either:

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (9 handed) converter
Preflop: WeepForMe is Button with Ah, Ac. 5 folds, CO calls, WeepForMe raises, 2 folds, CO calls.
Flop: (5.33 SB) 3s, Jc, 7s (2 players)CO checks, WeepForMe bets, CO raises, WeepForMe calls.
Turn: (4.66 BB) 8h (2 players)CO bets, WeepForMe raises, CO calls.
River: (8.66 BB) 6d (2 players)CO checks, WeepForMe bets, CO calls.
Final Pot: 10.66 BB
Results below: CO has Qh 8c (one pair, eights). WeepForMe has Ah Ac (one pair, aces). Outcome: WeepForMe wins 10.66 BB.

Lets walk through this hand from the perspective of my opponent, Mr. CO (CO = Cutoff = the person sitting to the right of the button):

Hi, I'm the moron in the cutoff. Everyone folds to me, and I look down and see a potential monster hand with my unsuited Q8. Rather than raise and risk everyone folding and suffer the disaster of just stealing the blinds, I'm going to limp. Excellent! The unsuspecting fool in on the button raises for me! I'll just call for now. He'll never know what hit him.

HAHA!!! My dream flop, J73 with 2 spades! I have a spade! Oh no wait, I don't, but no matter. I still have the powerful Queen high. Given that the button raised preflop, he'll probably bet if I check, so I'll do that and continue my trap. He fell for it, what a chump! At this point the only possible hand he could have is AK, which I can't beat yet, but I know that nobody on PartyPoker ever calls to the river with an unimproved AK, I'm going to check-raise him and outplay him. Ha! He just called my raise, he must not have anything. Maybe I'm even winning with my Queen. I am so good at poker!!!!!

Woah, the turn was my supercard. Now I have a pair of eights, so I have to keep betting. What?? He raised?? He must not know I have a pair of eights. Hmmm, $6 more? I better call this. I guess he might have a better hand than me, but that seems pretty unlikely. I'll just play it safe and call.

Darn, that river didn't help me. I'll do this guy a favor and just check my pair of eights. He bet again? Maybe he has that Jack after all. I'm going to call him though, just to keep him honest. Nobody bluffs me out of a hand!

How am I losing to these hopeless bluffing clowns? Even when they stop bluffing, they just keep hoping...

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (10 handed)
Preflop: WeepForMe is SB with Kd, Kh. UTG calls, 3 folds, MP2 calls, 2 folds, Button calls, WeepForMe raises, 1 fold, UTG 3-bets, MP2 calls, Button folds, WeepForMe calls.
Flop: (11 SB) 4s, Ah, 5c (3 players)WeepForMe checks, UTG bets, MP2 calls, WeepForMe calls.
Turn: (7 BB) 4d (3 players)WeepForMe checks, UTG checks, MP2 checks.
River: (7 BB) 6h (3 players)WeepForMe bets, UTG folds, MP2 calls.
Final Pot: 9 BB
Results below: WeepForMe has Kd Kh (two pair, kings and fours). MP2 has 7c 7d (two pair, sevens and fours).
Outcome: WeepForMe wins 9 BB.

First let's talk to MP2 (middle position #2). Given a preflop raise from the SB (small blind) and a 3bet, and then 2 other people putting money in on an Ace-high flop, did you really believe that 77 could win this hand? Even when the UTG guy folds, what did you think I had? You watched me raise preflop from awful position. If you had been paying attention, you'd see I am a pretty tight player, so to raise from there I probably had to have a big pair or an Ace with a good kicker, right? In fact, the only pocket pair you can beat on the river is 22 or 33, so you must think I have that? Or maybe you thought I'd get wild with KQ? Please keep playing in my games.

Second, lets talk to trendy young man who decided after calling the blinds that he would try "that sweet move everyone is doing these days," the limp-reraise. Look son, I know you think that is a cool move to try with your 89s, but you really ought to save it for another time. Like maybe when you have a few more people in the pot, or a bit better position for later in the hand. Or maybe wait for when you have a fucking clue. Leave the big boy tools for the big boys to use. Go play on a swing set.

Ok, so in all of those hands I knew I was in pretty good shape, and was glad that my inept opponents made it easy for me. What about hands where it isn't so clear?

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (9 handed)
Preflop: WeepForMe is BB with Th, 8s. 3 folds, MP2 calls, 3 folds, SB completes, WeepForMe checks.
Flop: (3 SB) 5s, 3s, Ts (3 players)SB checks, WeepForMe bets, MP2 calls, SB calls.
Turn: (3 BB) Js (3 players)SB checks, WeepForMe checks, MP2 bets, SB calls, WeepForMe folds.
River: (5 BB) 3h (2 players)SB checks, MP2 checks.
Final Pot: 5 BB
Results below: SB has 6c 7s (flush, jack high). MP2 has 9h Td (two pair, tens and threes). Outcome: SB wins 5 BB.

Folding the best hand is always annoying. I had this hand wrong from beginning to end. I got to see the flop for free, and immediately didn't like the situation I was in. I actually flopped the exact same thing recently (I had top pair of tens on a flop with 3 spades and the 8 of spades as my kicker. I was up against someone with AT and the Ace of spades, and it sucked.) and didn't want the same thing to happen. When everyone called the flop bet I remember thinking that I had the best hand and that I hoped a spade didn't hit, so I checked when the spade hit. It never occured to me that MP2 might have been playing a ten, and that the SB would call a bet with no pair and a spade lower than my 8.

So I was completely clueless this hand. If this was $15/30 and we encountered the same flop situation, I would have bet, the T9 guy would have raised to protect his vulnerable top pair, and the small blind would have folded. Then I would have check-called the rest of the way and won. But I don't play $15/30 online. I don't play $15/30 because I don't have the bankroll. I don't have the bankroll because I can't beat $3/6 for enough money to build my bankroll. I also don't play $15/30 because every time I've taken a shot at it I get crushed. I get crushed probably for the same reason that I can't beat the $3/6 game, which is that I don't know what the hell I'm doing most of the time regardless of the limit. So I probably shouldn't play for higher stakes against better players. Not that that usually stops anyone.

Sorry for that rant. I conclude that my cluelessness this hand was only because my opponents misplayed their hands so much that I couldn't possibly know what what going on. I'll just keep telling myself that. (How am I losing to these guys?)

So usually I'm completely clueless. But sometimes I know what's up. Observe:

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (9 handed)
Preflop: WeepForMe is UTG with Jd, Jc. WeepForMe raises, UTG+1 calls, 3 folds, CO calls, 2 folds, BB calls. Flop: (8.33 SB) 4c, Qs, 6h (4 players)BB bets, WeepForMe calls, UTG+1 calls, CO calls.
Turn: (6.16 BB) 5h (4 players)BB bets, WeepForMe folds, UTG+1 calls, CO folds.
River: (8.16 BB) Ks (2 players)BB checks, UTG+1 bets, BB calls. Final Pot: 10.16 BB
Results below: BB has Qd 8s (one pair, queens). UTG+1 has 7h Ah (high card, ace). Outcome: BB wins 10.16 BB.

I've had a rough time today with JJ, and this time I knew enough to lay it down. I guess I smelled his Q, but apparently the guy who coldcalled my UTG raise with A7 did not get the whiff. How am I losing to these people?

In the next hand I combined cluelessness and a sense of smell. I smelled danger, but I'm clueless as to whether it was right.


Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (10 handed) converter
Preflop: WeepForMe is Button with Qs, Kc. 1 fold, UTG+1 calls, 3 folds, MP3 calls, 1 fold, WeepForMe raises, 1 fold, BB calls, UTG+1 calls, MP3 calls.
Flop: (8.33 SB) Kh, 7h, Jd (4 players)BB checks, UTG+1 bets, MP3 calls, WeepForMe raises, BB folds, UTG+1 calls, MP3 calls.
Turn: (7.16 BB) 3d (3 players)UTG+1 checks, MP3 checks, WeepForMe bets, UTG+1 calls, MP3 raises, WeepForMe calls, UTG+1 3-bets, MP3 caps, WeepForMe folds, UTG+1 calls.
River: (17.16 BB) 3c (2 players)UTG+1 folds.
Final Pot: 17.16 BB
Results below: MP3 doesn't show. Outcome: MP3 wins 17.16 BB.

Everything was going along fine until the turn. I had a decent hand got a decent flop, although not one I was entirely comfortable with. There were lots of draws, so I wanted to keep the pressure on.

On the turn, Mp3 (middle position 3) checkraised me, which sent off huge warning bells on this board, especially because I had observed that player to be very straightforward (he had the Q8 from the last hand). It probably meant he had a set, but I called 1 more bet hoping that he had a vulnerable 2 pair and I had the odds to chase it.

Then in got weird, as UTG+1 (UTG+1 = the guy after UTG = 2nd to act after the blinds) decided to 3bet it. Given his actions so far I read this to mean he had a big draw, either the nut heart flush draw from the flop since he bet at it, or perhaps he bet the flop with QT for an openended straight draw and maybe backed into the diamond flush draw also. I thought I had him beat, but when the guy caps, I let go of my hand. I'm pretty sure I would have lost, but for 17 bets I have to be pretty damn sure of it for the laydown to be correct.

At this point, you'll notice that I've been folding a lot of hands. You might suggest that the reason I'm losing is that I'm folding too often, even if the hands I've shared here all should have been folded. Maybe that is the case, or maybe not:

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (9 handed) converter
Preflop: WeepForMe is CO with 6d, 6c. 3 folds, MP2 calls, MP3 raises, WeepForMe calls, 1 fold, SB calls, 1 fold, MP2 calls.
Flop: (9 SB) Tc, 4c, 7d (4 players)SB checks, MP2 bets, MP3 calls, WeepForMe raises, SB folds, MP2 calls, MP3 calls.
Turn: (7.50 BB) 3c (3 players)MP2 checks, MP3 bets, WeepForMe calls, MP2 folds.
River: (9.50 BB) 2s (2 players)MP3 bets, WeepForMe calls.
Final Pot: 11.50 BB
Results below: MP3 has Ad Qc (high card, ace). WeepForMe has 6d 6c (one pair, sixes). Outcome: WeepForMe wins 11.50 BB.

Sometimes I'll fold 66 to a preflop raise, sometimes I'll 3 bet. This time I called.

That isn't a flop that was likely to have helped anyone. Mp2 seemed to be thinking the same thing when he bet the flop, and when the preflop raiser just called it, I decided to raise. I thought there was a decent chance I had the best hand, and I wanted see where I stood. I didn't like it that the SB called 2 cold, but he later folded the turn for 1 bet, so he's an idiot.

The preflop raiser comes to life and bets out when the turn brings a 3rd club. This struck me as extremely suspicious. Given that he raised preflop, if he had 2 big clubs in his hand, I think he would have raised the flop. I think he also would have raised the flop with an overpair or with a ten in his hand, so I concluded that he must have decided to bet out with the A or K of clubs as a semibluff. I definitely wasn't going to fold, but I decided I didn't want to raise and then get 3bet by MP2 if he was betting out on the flop with a flush draw. In retrospect I think I should have raise here to force MP2 to fold a 7 or a T, but luckily he must not have had a pair because he folded. I conclude he didn't have a pair because nobody in the history of Party Poker $3/6 has ever folded a pair for 1 bet.

The river call is easy, and I win a big pot with a shitty hand, because I'm so very awesome. How am I losing to these players?

Obviously I picked these hands specifically to tell a story. Given the thousands of hands I play, I could probably pick out a few hands that tell any story I want. (Maybe I should do a followup post, "Oh wait... this is why I'm losing." I have about 17,000 hands to tell that story.)

That is what makes a losing streak of this duration so frustrating, especially when my key metrics really haven't changed at all. I could come up with any kind of theory about what is wrong, and I'd probably be able to find plenty of evidence for it. But then I'd get cute and be able to find plenty of evidence against it as well. There are no easy answers. I'll keep doing analysis both of individual hands and of my overall stats, hoping to find something that I can fix, but I'm resigned to the idea that it won't be so simple. For now I'm just going to keep playing. I think I can turn it around.

Because making unbeatable hands is so rare, playing hold'em without confidence is dangerous. Even the worst players seem to be able to smell blood somehow, even online. And so losing can be contagious and there is no simple prescription like "tighten up," "be more aggressive," or "more cowbell." I think that one thing writing this helped me realize is that my instincts are usually pretty good, and maybe too often I'm talking myself out of following them.

Thoughts?

Hand analysis

It is nice to have someone to talk about hands with.

Adspar: i 3bet an UTG raiser (his VPIP is 19%) w/TT, that guy cold calls
Adspar: K7x flop, UTG checks, i bet, cold call folds
Adspar: UTG checkraises, i fold
Adspar: what do you think?
Adspar: i cant imagine him taking that line with a hand i can beat
DK: i agree
DK: the pot may have been big enough to try and spike a 10 though
DK: if it was 3 bet preflop
Adspar: hmm
DK: and you think it will be good
Adspar: if he has AK
DK: in general i hate getting mixed up with those guys thougu
Adspar: he's 91% favorite
Adspar: basically 10 to 1
DK: yeah
DK: the pot was laying you more than that i imagine
Adspar: and i'm getting 12 to 1 on my call
DK: so i think unless you think he has KK you can call that
Adspar: but for him to raise preflop
Adspar: and then checkraise me after i 3bet him
DK: yeah
DK: strong
Adspar: he's got to put me on AA, KK, QQ, AK when i 3bet
Adspar: and knowing his own cards, he can rule out some of those
Adspar: so for him to 3bet i gotta think KK is in there enough to maybe justify the fold
Adspar: i should have thought about that 12-1 price though
DK: sometimes you can tell too by whether he capped preflop
DK: some people are always cap
DK: some are not
Adspar: i just thought: i'm up against AA, KK, or AK
DK: yah
Adspar: if he definitely had one of those, its probably a good fold still
DK: yah
Adspar: actually, if he definitely has AA, KK, AK then its by far a good fold
DK: well yeah
DK: KK is a big chunk there
Adspar: 6 ways AA, 3 ways KK, 12 ways AK
DK: so 17% time KK or so
DK: 14%
DK: rather
Adspar: so 86% of the time i have a 9% chance to win. 14% i have basically 0
DK: yeah
Adspar: so i have 7.7%
DK: so what way does that tip it
Adspar: thats basically 12 to 1
DK: hah
Adspar: so i can do whatever i want
DK: yeah
DK: if you think that's too conservative, call
Adspar: probably with the implied odds its worth playing
DK: this is all with the understanding that you're probably folding the turn
DK: ooh yeah
Adspar: good to know for next time some moron cold calls 3 and juices it up
DK: yah
DK: so how many bets did we neeed
DK: 12 to 1
Adspar: for even money, yes
DK: which is 3 * 3
Adspar: huh?
DK: i was just thinking 3 players 3 bets
DK: preflop
Adspar: right, plus my 1 and UTG's 2 on the flop
DK: yah

Conclusion - It would have probably been right to see the turn here, but its a close call.

Its better to be lucky than good

"Its better to be lucky than good" is a saying I hear all the time around poker games. Here are some hands from tonight to illustrate. Results and commentary are in white beneath the hands, to preserve suspense for you, my faithful reader. Simply highlight the text in that area to get your jollies.



Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Golden Boy is MP2 with 9s, As.
4 folds, Golden Boy raises, 4 folds, BB calls.

Flop: (4.33 SB) 9c, 5s, Qc (2 players)
BB checks, Golden Boy bets, BB raises, Golden Boy 3-bets, BB calls.

Turn: (5.16 BB) 6d (2 players)
BB checks, Golden Boy bets, BB calls.

River: (7.16 BB) Td (2 players)
BB checks, Golden Boy bets, BB calls.

Final Pot: 9.16 BB

Results and commentary in white below:
BB has Jc Tc (one pair, tens).
Golden Boy has 9s As (one pair, nines).
Outcome: BB wins 9.16 BB.

I somehow knew he had JTc when he checkraised that flop. I was sure of it. That actually makes him a favorite (66-34) but I decided to 3bet, partially to get information to validate my read, and partially to make him think I have a Q instead of a 9. When he hits the ten on the river, I bet hoping he'd fold because I played the hand like I had a queen. Oh well.

Maybe I should classify this as him getting lucky, since he did have the better hand on the flop. But I wouldn't have put another bet in on the river if he hit his flush or straight, which is what he was hoping for. Only the Jack or the Ten would have gotten him that extra bet. So he's lucky? Whatever, lets move on...



Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Golden Boy is Button with As, Ts.
2 folds, UTG+2 raises, 4 folds, Golden Boy 3-bets, 1 fold, BB calls, UTG+2 caps, Golden Boy calls, BB calls.

Flop: (12.33 SB) 6d, 7h, 8d (3 players)
BB checks, Golden Boy raises, BB calls.

Turn: (8.16 BB) 5d (3 players)
BB checks, Golden Boy bets, BB raises, Golden Boy folds.

River: (11.16 BB) 2h (2 players)

Final Pot: 11.16 BB
Results in white below:
BB has Qh 9h (straight, nine high).
UTG+2 has 8h Ac (one pair, eights).
Outcome: BB wins 11.16 BB.

Normally I'd fold ATs to an early position raise, but there were several factors that made me strongly suspect I had the best hand. I had just seen the guy limp and then horribly misplay AK, so he seemed like he'd be likely to misplay other hands. He was also very shortstacked, and I've seen enough of these shortstacked donkies to know that they play stupid hands way too hard. So I 3bet hoping to isolate him. Alas, the brilliant player in the big blind decides his Q9s is worth calling 2 cold, and he hits his hand on the turn. I like my read and my play, but its better to be lucky than good.

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Golden Boy is UTG+2 with 7d, 7h.
2 folds, Golden Boy raises, 2 folds, MP3 calls, 2 folds, SB calls, BB calls.

Flop: (8 SB) 4c, Kd, 3d (4 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Golden Boy bets, MP3 calls, SB folds, BB folds.

Turn: (5 BB) 3h (2 players)
Golden Boy bets, MP3 calls.

River: (7 BB) As (2 players)
Golden Boy checks, MP3 bets, Golden Boy calls.

Final Pot: 9 BB

Results in white below:
Golden Boy has 7d 7h (two pair, sevens and threes).
MP3 has 5h 2h (straight, five high).
Outcome: MP3 wins 9 BB.

Obviously this guy is a dolt, calling 2 cold with 52s. I was sure he didn't have a King when he simply called the flop, so I bet the turn, and check-called the scary river. I expected to see A6o or some crappy Aces, but the wheel said: It is better to be lucky than good!


I've disguised which hand is mine here.
Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (8 handed) converter

Preflop:
2 folds, MPA raises, 1 fold, CO 3-bets, 1 fold, SB calls, 1 fold, MPA calls.

Flop: (10 SB) Ts, Qd, Ks (3 players)
SB folds, MPA bets, CO raises, MPA 3-bets, CO caps, MPA calls.

Turn: (9 BB) Qs (2 players)
MPA bets, CO raises, MPA 3-bets, CO calls.

River: (15 BB) As (2 players)
MPA checks, CO bets, MPA calls.

Final Pot: 17 BB

Results in white below:
MPA has Kc Qh (full house, queens full of kings).
CO has Td Tc (full house, tens full of queens).
Outcome: MPA wins 17 BB.

I had the KQ. I opened for a raise, and was very uncomfortable when a tight solid winning player 3bet me. He'd have to have a big pair or AK or unlikely AQ. Since I have KQ, I figured his most likely holdings are AA, JJ, TT. If the small blind hadn't called, I would have seriously considered folding, but I had to call 1 more bet getting 9 to 1 on my call.

At first I love the flop. If he has AA, AK or AQ, he's in serious trouble. There's no way he has AJ, but I do need to be worried about TT or the JJ open-ended straight draw. I decide to bet out , planning to 3bet, rather than go for a checkraise or wait for a later street to reraise. I want to get as much money in this flop as possible if he's drawing. When he caps instead of calling the 3bet, I'm seriously concerned about TT. I've represented AJ pretty well, so I think with AA or JJ he'd just call the flop probably, although maybe he'd keep ramming AA.

I catch a beautiful turn card and get 3 bets in on the turn. He thinks I have AJ at this point, so he raises my bet, but changes his mind when I 3bet him. At this point his most likely hand is TT, but AA or JJ with the Js are still possible, which is why the river scares me and I check. I didn't lose any money though, cause he wouldn't have raised a river bet, but he'll bet TT if I check to him.

Preflop he was a 56.5% - 43.5% favorite, and on the flop he was an 82% favorite. I got lucky!

Some hands

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Your Favorite Chump is MP2 with 6h, 6d.
3 folds, Your Favorite Chump raises, 3 folds, SB calls, BB 3-bets, Your Favorite Chump calls, SB calls.

Flop: (9 SB) 9s, 5s, 3d (4 players)
SB bets, BB raises, Your Favorite Chump folds, SB calls.

Turn: (6.50 BB) Td (3 players)
SB checks, BB checks.

River: (6.50 BB) Th (3 players)
SB bets, BB calls.

Final Pot: 8.50 BB
Results in white below:
SB has 5h Ac (two pair, tens and fives).
BB has Kh Ah (one pair, tens).
UTG+1 doesn't show.

Argh! I hate folding the best hand. As I folded, I thought to myself, "I hope that BB doesn't have AK." Dammit.

-------

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Your Favorite Chump is BB with As, Kc.
2 folds, UTG+2 calls, 1 fold, MP2 raises, 4 folds, Your Favorite Chump calls, UTG+2 calls.

Sometimes I'd reraise this, but I because I'm out of position and to disguise the strength of my hand.

Flop: (6.33 SB) 5d, 4h, 7d (3 players)
Your Favorite Chump checks, UTG+2 checks, MP2 bets, Your Favorite Chump raises, UTG+2 folds, MP2 calls.

I like this flop because it isn't likely to have helped the preflop raiser, and it looks like the kind of flop that could have helped a small blind. Unless the raiser has a pocket pair, I'm probably beating him, so the checkraise to force out the big blind is a play I like a lot.

Turn: (5.16 BB) Qc (2 players)
Your Favorite Chump checks, MP2 bets, Your Favorite Chump calls.

Ew, I don't like that Queen. He probably has AQ, AJ, or KQ, so I'm afraid he might have hit, but I'm reluctant to fold. So I call like a chump.

River: (7.16 BB) 3d (2 players)
Your Favorite Chump bets, MP2 calls.

This card completes a flush and a straight draw, so I take a shot at it.

Final Pot: 9.16 BB
Results in white below:
Your Favorite Chump has As Kc (high card, ace).
MP2 has Qh Ah (one pair, queens).
Outcome: MP2 wins 9.16 BB.

Crap. Love the way I played it until the turn. The river isn't bad either. Probably should have folded on the turn though. Crap.

-----
Guess who has what, and which I am:

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop:
1 fold, UTG+1 raises, 2 folds, MPB 3-bets, MP3 calls, 2 folds, SB calls, 1 fold, UTG+1 caps, MPB calls, MP3 calls, SB calls.

Flop: (17 SB) 4s, 7c, 3d (4 players)
SB checks, UTG+1 bets, MPB raises, MP3 calls, SB calls, UTG+1 3-bets, MPB calls, MP3 calls, SB calls.

Turn: (14.50 BB) 7h (4 players)
SB checks, UTG+1 bets, MPB raises, MP3 calls, SB folds, UTG+1 calls.

River: (20.50 BB) 6d (3 players)
UTG+1 checks, MPB bets, MP3 calls, UTG+1 calls.

Final Pot: 23.50 BB

Results in white below:
UTG+1 has Kc Kd (two pair, kings and sevens).
MPB has Ah As (two pair, aces and sevens).
MP3 has Qd Qh (two pair, queens and sevens).

Outcome: MPB wins 23.50 BB.

I had the Aces. Silly.
-----

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Your Favorite Chump is BB with Ad, Jh.
1 fold, UTG+1 raises, 6 folds, Your Favorite Chump calls.

Flop: (4.33 SB) Qd, 7c, Ks (2 players)
Your Favorite Chump bets, UTG+1 calls.

Turn: (3.16 BB) 4d (2 players)
Your Favorite Chump bets, UTG+1 calls.

River: (5.16 BB) Th (2 players)
Your Favorite Chump bets, UTG+1 raises, Your Favorite Chump 3-bets, UTG+1 caps, Your Favorite Chump calls.

Final Pot: 13.16 BB
Results in white below:

Your Favorite Chump has Ad Jh (straight, ace high).
UTG+1 has Kd Kh (three of a kind, kings).
Outcome: Your Favorite Chump wins 13.16 BB.

I bet the flop and turn hoping that the preflop raiser had an underpair or AJ or AT, but planning to fold to a raise. Whoops!

Curious George looks deeply at a hand

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (9 handed)
Preflop: Curious George is SB with 8c, 8d. CO posts a blind of $3. 2 folds, MP1 calls, 2 folds, CO (poster) checks, 1 fold, Curious George completes, BB checks.

My options here were calling or raising. So far only 1 person has voluntarily put money into the pot, and he limped, so there probably aren't any big hands out there. But 1 more bet to everyone probably won't drive anyone out except maybe the big blind, so I think calling is ok. This way I get out cheap if there are a lot of overcards, but I have potential for a deceptively strong hand. Long run, I don't think the call/raise decision matters much here.

Flop: (4 SB) 9s, 2h, 3s (4 players) Curious George bets.

While any of my 3 opponents could have a 9, there is a pretty good chance that I have the best hand right now. I'm first to act on this flop, so my decision is check or bet. Again, I think this is close.

If I check, it is with the intention of check-raising unless I see a good reason not to. Since this flop isn't likely to have helped anyone, the early position players are likely to check, but one of the later players will often throw in a bluff to try to steal the pot uncontested. This lets me checkraise and blast out anyone in between with forcing them to call a double-bet, or possibly take down the pot right there.

The downside of betting out is that a lot of these players are likely to "take a card off" here with almost any holding, and even though I'm a favorite over a lot of their likely holdings, my hand is definitely vulnerable to overcards, and I'm in bad position. So if I bet and get a caller or two, I don't get any information, and I won't know what to do with most turn cards.

However, I decided to bet out. Even though going for a checkraise was tempting, I didn't want to risk everyone checking around and giving all 3 of them a free card. Even if that free card didn't help them, I'd have a tough decision on the turn, and might have to check again and risk giving another free card. By betting out I put immediate pressure on them, and can gain information.

Flop: (4 SB) 9s, 2h, 3s (4 players) Curious George bets, BB folds, MP1 raises, CO folds, Curious George calls.

Someone raises and everyone has folded back to me. I have 3 options now, but I'm only thinking about a call or a reraise. I made a note earlier in the session that my opponent (who I'll call Daunte, since his screen name referred to the Viking's QB) check/called a King high flop that contained a flush draw with KTo, and then bet out on the turn with his top pair when the flush card didn't hit. This tells me that Daunte is a bit tricky and would be very capable of raising this hand with lots of hands I can beat, so I never considered folding. I conclude he likely has 2 overcards (but not AK, KQ, AQ which he would likely have raised) or maybe a pocket pair lower than mine (but not a set, which he'd likely slowplay). A2, A3, A4 are also possibilities.

If I 3bet, he'd almost certainly call 1 more small bet, which would create a pot big enough that he'd likely call a turn bet even if he didn't improve. Thinking that I'd prefer to avoid a river, I decided to just call Daunte's raise and see what the turn brought.


Turn: (4 BB) Kh (2 players)Curious George bets, MP1 folds.
Final Pot: 5 BB
Results below: No showdown. Curious George wins 5 BB.

While the overcard on the turn was scary, I decided to bet out. It was a combination of factors that led to the decision, but my biggest thought was the classic advice: "if you would call a bet anyway, you might as well bet yourself." While that concept applies mainly to the river, a simpler adage sealed the deal for me: "when in doubt, bet!" Daunte recognizes a tricky play when he sees it, and this is similar to the move I had seen him make. So I figured my betting out here would be a disorienting play after I had just called the flop raise, and it would put pressure on my opponent again. It did. He folded. I won.

I was pretty happy with myself at first, and made a note of this hand, but then I started to wonder about my play. If my opponent had 2 overcards, which was my primary read, I did an excellent job of recognizing his tricky flop raise for what it was, and then seizing back the momentum on the turn in spite of a threatening card for my hand. I took down a small pot before he had a chance to catch me.

But on the other hand, what if he had 66 or 77? If I had checked the turn, he probably would bet, and might bet again on the river if I checked to him, getting me one or 2 more big bets out of him. He might even keep betting with just the overcards even if he didn't hit the river. Maybe I cost myself here.

Writing up this analysis, I notice that I had very close decisions preflop, on the flop, and on the turn. If those decisions were truly close to even in terms of EV (expected value), then long run they don't particularly matter, and there isn't much point scrutinizing them.

But on the other hand, something about my play here leads me to something I'd like to investigate further. I played this hand very conservatively. While it looks aggressive and maybe even reckless, my bet out on the turn gives me a chance to fold if he raises, or take the pot down without a river card. Checking here would be risky.

I'm mired in a tough losing streak (good time to quit your job, Rockefeller) and now that I think about it, it feels like I haven't been seeing as many showdowns as I used to, and I've noticed that my [%ShowdownsWon] has looked rather high lately. I need to look back at my pokertracker stats and see if this is a hole in my game.

If I'm winning a higher percentage of showdowns, it means I'm playing more conservatively. This could have 2 related negative effects on my win rate - 1) if I'm folding the best hand even 1/6th of the time it is costing me money since pots are usually at least 7BBs, and 2.) if my opponents see that I'm not willing to take marginal hands to the river, they could pounce on this weakness and play more aggressively against me.

I'll do the research on this soon, but now I gotta go play basketball.

Meanwhile, back at the tables...

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Handsome Champion is UTG+2 with 7h, 7s.
2 folds, Handsome Champion raises, 4 folds, Button calls, 2 folds.

Flop: (5.33 SB) 5h, 2c, Jc (2 players)
Handsome Champion bets, Button raises, Handsome Champion calls.

Turn: (4.66 BB) Qd (2 players)
Handsome Champion bets, Button calls.

River: (6.66 BB) 6d (2 players)
Handsome Champion checks, Button checks.

Final Pot: 6.66 BB

Results:
Handsome Champion has 7h 7s (one pair, sevens).
Button has 9d Jh (one pair, jacks).
Outcome: Button wins 6.66 BB.

Thoughts: I'll almost always bet out on this flop. All he's done so far is coldcall the raise from the button, so who knows what he has. When he raises, he is representing a pair of Jacks, but he could have a flush draw or some other weird hand. I refuse to let this go for one flop raise, but I doubt I'd get much information from 3betting the flop, so I just call. The turn bet is what makes this hand interesting. I still don't know where I am, so if I checked and he bet, I still don't think it would be right to fold, but then I still wouldn't know what to do on the river if I don't hit the miracle 7. So I like betting out here - if he was on a draw from the flop, I don't let him take a free card, but if he had a pair of Jacks, the Queen is a scare card for him, so he won't raise. If he had raised, I can easily fold. The weird turn bet scared him enough not to bet when I check the river, so I got a free showdown, and laughed on the inside when I saw he coldcalled my preflop raise with J9o.


Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Handsome Champion is SB with 4c, 4d.
1 fold, UTG+1 calls, 2 folds, MP3 calls, CO calls, Button calls, Handsome Champion completes, BB checks.

Flop: (6 SB) 7c, 2d, 3d (6 players)
Handsome Champion checks, BB checks, UTG+1 checks, MP3 checks, CO checks, Button bets, Handsome Champion raises, BB folds, UTG+1 folds, MP3 folds, CO folds, Button calls.

Turn: (5 BB) Jd (2 players)
Handsome Champion bets, Button raises, Handsome Champion folds.

Final Pot: 8 BB

Thoughts: On the flop I think there's a good chance I have the best hand, but I can't bet out into 5 other players, so I check to see what happens. Given the preflop and flop action, the button's bet could easily be with a hand that I can beat, so I check-raise and blast everyone else out. I can't check the turn and let a worse hand hit a better pair or complete the diamonds, and it makes it easy to fold to a raise.


Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Handsome Champion is UTG with Qc, Qh.
Handsome Champion raises, UTG+1 calls, 2 folds, MP3 calls, 3 folds, BB 3-bets, Handsome Champion caps, UTG+1 calls, MP3 calls, BB calls.

Flop: (16.33 SB) 9d, 8h, 4c (5 players)
BB checks, Handsome Champion bets, UTG+1 raises, MP3 calls, BB 3-bets, Handsome Champion folds, UTG+1 caps, MP3 calls, BB calls.

Turn: (14.66 BB) 9h (4 players)
BB checks, UTG+1 bets, MP3 calls, BB calls.

River: (17.66 BB) 5h (4 players)
BB checks, UTG+1 bets, MP3 calls, BB calls.

Final Pot: 20.66 BB

Results:
BB has Js Jd (two pair, jacks and nines).
UTG+1 has Ts 9s (three of a kind, nines).
MP2 doesn't show.
MP3 has 4h 5d (two pair, nines and fives).
Outcome: UTG+1 wins 20.66 BB.

Thoughts: This is some kind of weird reverse bad-beat. I made the wrong play (folding the best hand on the flop in a huge pot) but got lucky when some idiot hit three of a kind. Wow these players are crazy.



Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Handsome Champion is MP2 with Jc, Ah.
UTG calls, 2 folds, Handsome Champion raises, 1 fold, CO 3-bets, 3 folds, UTG folds, Handsome Champion calls.

Flop: (8.33 SB) Jd, 8c, 7h (2 players)
Handsome Champion checks, CO bets, Handsome Champion calls.

Turn: (5.16 BB) 2d (2 players)
Handsome Champion checks, CO bets, Handsome Champion calls.

River: (7.16 BB) Th (2 players)
Handsome Champion bets, CO raises, Handsome Champion calls.

Final Pot: 11.16 BB

Results:
Handsome Champion has Jc Ah (one pair, jacks).
CO has 9c 9s (straight, jack high).
Outcome: CO wins 11.16 BB.

Thoughts: I think my play is good until the river. On the river I should only make that bet if I'm willing to fold to the raise. If I'm not willing, I have to check/call. I made the bet planning to fold to a raise, but then I talked myself out of it. Poor.

Coulda been worse

I just had a rough losing session, but I played well, otherwise it could have been worse. All these hands are intended to highlight spots where I saved myself from more serious damage, except for the last hand which I just thought was interesting. I used a hand converter (linked by clicking on the title of this post), and alternated colors so it was more obvious which commentary went with which hand.

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (10 handed) converter
Preflop: Hero is SB with Kh, Qh. 5 folds, MP3 raises, 4 folds.
Final Pot: 1.66 BB

This is a pretty easy fold for me these days that I never used to make. I'm up against an Ace far too often here to make it worth playing the whole hand out of position with King high.


Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (9 handed) converter
Preflop: Hero is SB with Jh, Qs. 2 folds, MP1 calls, 5 folds, BB checks.
Flop: (2.33 SB) 5c, 2d, 9h (2 players)BB bets, MP1 raises, BB calls.
Turn: (3.16 BB) 3s (2 players)BB checks, MP1 bets, BB calls.
River: (5.16 BB) 5s (2 players)BB checks, MP1 bets, BB calls.
Final Pot: 7.16 BB

Another example of folding 2 big cards from the blinds. This time its just not worth completing the small blind (calling $2 more). I just can't be comfortable enough when I make top pair to play this whole hand out of position against so many players.


Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (10 handed) converter
Preflop: Hero is UTG+2 with Jc, Tc. 5 folds, MP3 raises, 3 folds, BB 3-bets, MP3 calls.
Flop: (6.33 SB) 3s, As, 6c (2 players)BB bets, MP3 calls.
Turn: (4.16 BB) 8c (2 players)BB bets, MP3 folds.
Final Pot: 5.16 BB

Pretty straightforward, folding a hand that is tempting.


Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (10 handed) converter
Preflop: Hero is Button with Kh, Qc. 1 fold, UTG+1 raises, 4 folds, CO calls, 1 fold, SB calls, 1 fold.
Flop: (7 SB) 7h, 2s, Qd (3 players)SB bets, UTG+1 raises, CO folds, SB calls.
Turn: (5.50 BB) 6c (2 players)SB checks, UTG+1 bets, SB calls.
River: (7.50 BB) 7s (2 players)SB checks, UTG+1 bets, SB calls.
Final Pot: 9.50 BB

Here a tight player raised in early position, and I didn't want to take KQ against that, because his most likely hands are AA, KK, QQ, AK, AQ, JJ, TT. I'm in serious trouble against most of those hands, so I fold, and save myself a lot of money when it turns out the raiser had AQ.

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (9 handed) converter
Preflop: Hero is BB with Ac, Kc. UTG calls, 4 folds, CO raises, 2 folds, Hero 3-bets, UTG folds, CO caps, Hero calls.
Flop: (9.33 SB) 3c, Kh, 3s (2 players)Hero bets, CO calls.
Turn: (5.66 BB) Qc (2 players)Hero checks, CO checks.
River: (5.66 BB) 5h (2 players)Hero bets, CO raises, Hero calls.
Final Pot: 9.66 BB
Results below: Hero has Ac Kc (two pair, kings and threes). CO has Qs Qh (full house, queens full of threes). Outcome: CO wins 9.66 BB.

Here I save myself a bet by checking the turn. When the cut-off caps preflop, his most likely holding is QQ since my AK makes it less likely he has AA, KK, or AK. On the turn I can't beat AA, KK, or QQ so I check. His check behind makes me think maybe he has JJ, so I bet the river and pay off his raise. If my opponent had bet the turn I would have called and check/called the river so I'm losing 2 bets either way. If I had bet the turn he would have certainly raised either the turn or my river bet, so I saved a bet here because of a good read.

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (9 handed) converter
Preflop: Hero is BB with Kd, Js. 1 fold, UTG+1 raises, 3 folds, CO calls, 1 fold, SB calls, Hero calls.
Flop: (8 SB) As, Ks, 6h (4 players)SB checks, Hero checks, UTG+1 bets, CO calls, SB calls, Hero calls.
Turn: (6 BB) 9c (4 players)SB checks, Hero checks, UTG+1 bets, CO calls, SB calls, Hero folds.
River: (9 BB) Jh (3 players)SB checks, UTG+1 bets, CO calls, SB folds.
Final Pot: 11 BB
Results below: UTG+1 has 9s Ad (two pair, aces and nines). CO has Th Kc (one pair, kings). Outcome: UTG+1 wins 11 BB.

Nothing spectacular here. All of the other opponents were VERY loose, otherwise I'd often just fold this hand preflop. I call a bet on the flop because the pot is big and nobody has defined their hand very clearly. I fold the turn because at least one of these turkeys has an Ace, maybe 2 pair, and its not worth a big bet to see the river. I'm glad I folded because I would have made the 2nd best 2 pair hand.

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (10 handed) converter
Preflop: Hero is MP1 with Qc, Qd. 3 folds, Hero raises, MP2 calls, 1 fold, CO calls, 3 folds.
Flop: (7.33 SB) 3s, Kd, Jc (3 players)Hero bets, MP2 raises, CO folds, Hero calls.
Turn: (5.66 BB) Js (2 players)Hero bets, MP2 calls.
River: (7.66 BB) Ah (2 players)Hero checks, MP2 checks.
Final Pot: 7.66 BB
Results below: Hero has Qc Qd (two pair, queens and jacks). MP2 has Kc Qs (two pair, kings and jacks). Outcome: MP2 wins 7.66 BB.

I'm not sure about this hand but I think I played it well. When MP2 raises me on the flop, he probably has a King, but I think he could have a Jack or a straight draw often enough for me to keep playing. My bet out on the turn is the play I like here. If he has just a King, he can't raise my bet and probably would check behind me on most rivers if I check, so I get to showdown for only 1 more bet. If he has a Jack, he'll raise the turn usually, and then I can just fold. If he has a draw, he'll probably just call the turn. Basically it seemed to me that with that card, the only way he puts in 2 more big bets is with a hand that definitely beats mine, but he might have bet behind if I checked with a hand like AQ, QT, or TT. There's even an outside chance he might fold a weak King if he thinks I have a Jack or AK. In conclusion, folding somewhere would have been better, but since I made up my mind that I wanted a showdown with QQ, I got the cheapest possible showdown this way.


Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (9 handed) converter
Preflop: Hero is MP2 with Ks, Qs. 3 folds, Hero raises, MP3 calls, 3 folds, BB calls.
Flop: (6.33 SB) 9d, Th, 7c (3 players)BB checks, Hero bets, MP3 calls, BB calls.
Turn: (4.66 BB) 9s (3 players)BB checks, Hero bets, MP3 calls, BB calls.
River: (7.66 BB) Kh (3 players)BB checks, Hero checks, MP3 bets, BB calls, Hero calls.
Final Pot: 10.66 BB
Results below: BB has 6s 8c (straight, ten high). Hero has Ks Qs (two pair, kings and nines). MP3 has Jc Kd (two pair, kings and nines). Outcome: BB wins 10.66 BB.

I like the way I played this hand. My bets on the flop and the turn with overcards and an inside straight draw figure to win me the pot a lot of the time if the river is a blank, since often the blind is calling with just an 8 and the guy behind me is usually calling with overcards. Turned out the weirdo in the blind had the straight the whole time, but was too scared of his own shadow to ever do anything with it. The guy behind me is a moron. I'm a moron too, actually.


Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (10 handed) converter
Preflop: Hero is BB with Jc, Ac. 3 folds, MP1 calls, 2 folds, CO raises, 1 fold, SB calls, Hero calls, MP1 calls.
Flop: (8 SB) 9s, 9h, Kh (4 players)SB checks, Hero checks, MP1 bets, CO raises, SB calls, Hero folds, MP1 calls.
Turn: (7 BB) 8s (3 players)SB checks, MP1 checks, CO bets, SB calls, MP1 calls.
River: (10 BB) Ts (3 players)SB checks, MP1 checks, CO bets, SB calls, MP1 raises, CO calls, SB folds.
Final Pot: 15 BB
Results below: MP1 has Js 9d (three of a kind, nines). CO has Ah 9c (three of a kind, nines). Outcome: CO wins 15 BB.

Normally I'd probably just fold this hand preflop, but the cutoff knows that MP1 is very loose, so he'd lower his raising standards here, making me comfortable enough to see a flop out of position. I get out on the flop, but what the hell is MP1 thinking? He obviously thought his trips were the best hand the whole way. Why wait until the flush and straights come on the river to checkraise? Why not 3bet the flop or check-raise the turn?