Its better to be lucky than good

"Its better to be lucky than good" is a saying I hear all the time around poker games. Here are some hands from tonight to illustrate. Results and commentary are in white beneath the hands, to preserve suspense for you, my faithful reader. Simply highlight the text in that area to get your jollies.



Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Golden Boy is MP2 with 9s, As.
4 folds, Golden Boy raises, 4 folds, BB calls.

Flop: (4.33 SB) 9c, 5s, Qc (2 players)
BB checks, Golden Boy bets, BB raises, Golden Boy 3-bets, BB calls.

Turn: (5.16 BB) 6d (2 players)
BB checks, Golden Boy bets, BB calls.

River: (7.16 BB) Td (2 players)
BB checks, Golden Boy bets, BB calls.

Final Pot: 9.16 BB

Results and commentary in white below:
BB has Jc Tc (one pair, tens).
Golden Boy has 9s As (one pair, nines).
Outcome: BB wins 9.16 BB.

I somehow knew he had JTc when he checkraised that flop. I was sure of it. That actually makes him a favorite (66-34) but I decided to 3bet, partially to get information to validate my read, and partially to make him think I have a Q instead of a 9. When he hits the ten on the river, I bet hoping he'd fold because I played the hand like I had a queen. Oh well.

Maybe I should classify this as him getting lucky, since he did have the better hand on the flop. But I wouldn't have put another bet in on the river if he hit his flush or straight, which is what he was hoping for. Only the Jack or the Ten would have gotten him that extra bet. So he's lucky? Whatever, lets move on...



Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Golden Boy is Button with As, Ts.
2 folds, UTG+2 raises, 4 folds, Golden Boy 3-bets, 1 fold, BB calls, UTG+2 caps, Golden Boy calls, BB calls.

Flop: (12.33 SB) 6d, 7h, 8d (3 players)
BB checks, Golden Boy raises, BB calls.

Turn: (8.16 BB) 5d (3 players)
BB checks, Golden Boy bets, BB raises, Golden Boy folds.

River: (11.16 BB) 2h (2 players)

Final Pot: 11.16 BB
Results in white below:
BB has Qh 9h (straight, nine high).
UTG+2 has 8h Ac (one pair, eights).
Outcome: BB wins 11.16 BB.

Normally I'd fold ATs to an early position raise, but there were several factors that made me strongly suspect I had the best hand. I had just seen the guy limp and then horribly misplay AK, so he seemed like he'd be likely to misplay other hands. He was also very shortstacked, and I've seen enough of these shortstacked donkies to know that they play stupid hands way too hard. So I 3bet hoping to isolate him. Alas, the brilliant player in the big blind decides his Q9s is worth calling 2 cold, and he hits his hand on the turn. I like my read and my play, but its better to be lucky than good.

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Golden Boy is UTG+2 with 7d, 7h.
2 folds, Golden Boy raises, 2 folds, MP3 calls, 2 folds, SB calls, BB calls.

Flop: (8 SB) 4c, Kd, 3d (4 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Golden Boy bets, MP3 calls, SB folds, BB folds.

Turn: (5 BB) 3h (2 players)
Golden Boy bets, MP3 calls.

River: (7 BB) As (2 players)
Golden Boy checks, MP3 bets, Golden Boy calls.

Final Pot: 9 BB

Results in white below:
Golden Boy has 7d 7h (two pair, sevens and threes).
MP3 has 5h 2h (straight, five high).
Outcome: MP3 wins 9 BB.

Obviously this guy is a dolt, calling 2 cold with 52s. I was sure he didn't have a King when he simply called the flop, so I bet the turn, and check-called the scary river. I expected to see A6o or some crappy Aces, but the wheel said: It is better to be lucky than good!


I've disguised which hand is mine here.
Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (8 handed) converter

Preflop:
2 folds, MPA raises, 1 fold, CO 3-bets, 1 fold, SB calls, 1 fold, MPA calls.

Flop: (10 SB) Ts, Qd, Ks (3 players)
SB folds, MPA bets, CO raises, MPA 3-bets, CO caps, MPA calls.

Turn: (9 BB) Qs (2 players)
MPA bets, CO raises, MPA 3-bets, CO calls.

River: (15 BB) As (2 players)
MPA checks, CO bets, MPA calls.

Final Pot: 17 BB

Results in white below:
MPA has Kc Qh (full house, queens full of kings).
CO has Td Tc (full house, tens full of queens).
Outcome: MPA wins 17 BB.

I had the KQ. I opened for a raise, and was very uncomfortable when a tight solid winning player 3bet me. He'd have to have a big pair or AK or unlikely AQ. Since I have KQ, I figured his most likely holdings are AA, JJ, TT. If the small blind hadn't called, I would have seriously considered folding, but I had to call 1 more bet getting 9 to 1 on my call.

At first I love the flop. If he has AA, AK or AQ, he's in serious trouble. There's no way he has AJ, but I do need to be worried about TT or the JJ open-ended straight draw. I decide to bet out , planning to 3bet, rather than go for a checkraise or wait for a later street to reraise. I want to get as much money in this flop as possible if he's drawing. When he caps instead of calling the 3bet, I'm seriously concerned about TT. I've represented AJ pretty well, so I think with AA or JJ he'd just call the flop probably, although maybe he'd keep ramming AA.

I catch a beautiful turn card and get 3 bets in on the turn. He thinks I have AJ at this point, so he raises my bet, but changes his mind when I 3bet him. At this point his most likely hand is TT, but AA or JJ with the Js are still possible, which is why the river scares me and I check. I didn't lose any money though, cause he wouldn't have raised a river bet, but he'll bet TT if I check to him.

Preflop he was a 56.5% - 43.5% favorite, and on the flop he was an 82% favorite. I got lucky!