Juan to Portland

I'm sad to see him leave the area, but hope he makes good things happen for the Trailblazers.


3 years, $8 million not too bad.

For pooping at work, Iggy is the 2nd best

Below is a snippet from the latest Guinness-fueled uber-post. If you like poker at all, get bored at work, and don't know about Iggy, check him out. Click that link, print out the last few uberposts on the company printer, and your next workdump will last an hour.

My favorite workdump reading material:
#1 Bill Simmons, aka the Sports Guy
#2 Iggy, aka the Blog-father
#3 Fantasy football articles/rankings
#4 Mark Cuban's blog
#5 The Wall Street Journal that someone used to always leave in the handicap stall
#6 Fantasy basketbal articles/rankings
#7 H-Double's poker blog (only this low because his output has been infrequent)

I dread the thought of getting a job any time soon, but if I do, at least I'll look forward to the workdumps.

Poker is freaking hard.

Mastery of poker (hah!) requires the perfect simultaneous alignment of so many human and table-centric and meteorlogical mental variables as to overburden the average mind and drive it into the refuge of mysticism in its search for an ordering power. What if skill is a delusion? What if poker is a random and chaotic universe ruled by the forces of pure chance??

Every poker player who ever did everything by the book only to watch his pocket aces cracked on the river for the tenth time in a row has at least flirted with the idea. Not even the grizzled veteran or the advanced student of the game, in a bad run, can ever entirely overcome the sneaking suspicion that what it really comes down to is luck.

I was talking to a good friend, an avid golfer, about this concept today. And he showed me how golf is similar - the very "stickiness" of it - it's challenging to the point that you can never solve it. And usually, the enemy is yourself.

Because of this, poker, like the game of golf, hooks the susceptible and the desperate with the seductive promise of coming up a winner against all odds via nothing more than the auspices of Lady Fortune. And thus, like gambling, golf becomes addictive. Just one more round. I can feel it.

Today's the day luck rides in my cart. Today's the day that higher power makes me destiny's tot, guides me thru the shadow of the valley of incompetence on a giddy roll of clean fairway drives, miracle putts and group one hands.

Well, it didn't work today. Maybe tomorrow. I'll just keep playing until it does. Gawdamnit, it's only a matter of a few inches here, a few folds there and a tad more topspin on my approach. Can't stop now - sooo tantalizingly close I can taste it!

It's maddening sometimes, isn't it?

- from http://guinnessandpoker.blogspot.com/

Let's put a quick end to that

A good session earlier this evening roughly made up for last night. I'm going to have to get used to bigger single-session variance, and whining to my little diary here about a few bad beats isn't going to help that.

Game on.

Sigh.

You don't hear much about guys who take their shot and miss. But I'll tell you what happens to 'em. They wind up humping crappy jobs on graveyard shifts trying to figure out how they came up short.
-Mike McDermott

Mired in a losing funk and somewhat convinced that I'm costing myself money by sitting in the rockfest $10/20 games instead of the milk and honey $15/30 games I decided to move up and take a shot tonight.

I got clobbered pretty bad, losing $947 in almost 4 hours of play. My W$WSF (percentage of the time I won money when seeing flop) for the 500 hands was at under 28%. In my ~90,000 hands of from 3/6 to 10/20, this stat is more like 38%. Given a VP$IP (percentage of the time I voluntarily put money into the pot) of about 20%, I played about 100 hands and won 10% fewer of these than I could expect to win in the longrun, if my other stats are a fair comparison. The average pot was $170, so by this method, I figure I experienced $1700 of bad luck tonight. So I can credit myself with an imaginary $753 win and make an imaginary mortgage payment.

Attempting to quantify my bad luck isn't meant to suggest my game was spotless by any means. I misjudged how much players would adjust to the image I created and missed a couple value bets. There were times when I felt totally lost figuring out how to play against the 2/3 blind structure and the more aggressive opponents, although you tend to feel lost a lot when you miss every flop. So generally, this session really just felt like I played fairly well but got unlucky.

Even though a loss like this hurts, especially when I haven't been running well, I still think this was a shot worth taking. The $15/30 game looks like it has a lot more selection available and more pure maniacs. Still, the swings are going to be pretty severe, so coming in under-bankrolled is highly risky. The difference between $10/20 and $15/30 might not seem like a big one, but in addition to the 50% higher stakes, players are much more aggressive, which makes a bigger bankroll even more important.

In spite of this, I'll probably take another shot at this game some evening soon. Aside from the way the game felt, my track record of consistently winning at every level I've tried and the 28% W$WSF in this session are enough to convince me that this loss doesn't mean I'm outclassed at this level. $947 is a lot of money for me, but this was only a 32BB loss, which isn't really very severe in the world of online limit hold'em.

If I get spanked again, I'll whimper softly and retreat back to the relative safety of lower limits, muttering that I could beat those games if I only had a bigger roll...

... sounds pretty lame.

Sigh.

I miss my bankroll

I'm running so cold... so cold... I think I see Blue!



HE LOOKS GLORIOUS!





This cheers me up a bit. I hope it is real, but if not, someone did good.

Can you go to hell for what you post in a blog?

I'm posting this IM conversation because it crudely makes plenty of good points. The names are changed so people don't crucify the involved parties. If you are offended by this, try to figure out why.

Joseph: you know what i realized is a huge huge joke

Mary: what's that

Joseph: heaven

Joseph: think about it

Joseph: its like "hey idiot, dont do things that are bad for society, because if you are good enough you'll be in a nice place forever after you die."

Joseph: and the idiots just go right along with the idea of heaven despite having no reason to believe it in aside from that its a nice idea

Mary: hahah

Mary: true

Joseph: there are so many people who so fervently believe in heaven

Mary: yeah

Mary: well that goes hand in ahnd with the religion though

Joseph: these idiots will strap explosives to their body and blow themselves up because someone convinced them there will be 70 virgins awaiting them if they kill a bunch of sinners

Mary: truedat

Mary: they are convinced

Joseph: its like its too good to be true, if you are the one creating the relgions

Joseph: "hmmm what do people want? sex with virgins! we'll just promise them that if they do what we want. hmm but we cant really deliver on that. i've got it! we'll say they'll get it after they die!! they wont really fall for this will they?"

Mary: haha

Mary: people are idiots

Mary: sheep

Mary: you give em a nice idea like that

Mary: they will run with it

Mary: it doesn't hurt that it's self perpetuating too

Joseph: and the reason that some people fall for this shit and a few people can see through it is that the people who see through it still fuck the stupid people

Joseph: so its not like we'll ever advance past it

Joseph: but at least the majority of the dummies have something positive to believe in

Joseph: "i'm going to heaven"

Mary: i guess, but it's stupid positive nonetheless

Mary: and it's always an untouchable issue

Mary: it's like oh yeah i can't go to work on monday

Mary: gotta go do some shit for heaven

Mary: oh ok

Mary: cool dude

Mary: oh i cant go to work monday

Mary: i got an important bball game that day

Joseph: if i dont eat before sundown, i'll go to heaven

Mary: dude

Mary: you can't skip work for important bball game

Joseph: the ball game gets me into heaven

Mary: hah

Joseph: REALLY?? WHAT LEAGUE? CAN I JOIN??!

Mary: ahahah

Joseph: are there boring services and stupid ceremonies?!!

Mary: it'll be money

Joseph: can i donate 10% of my pretax earnings to perpetuate it??!

Mary: hahaha

Joseph: can we ritualistically kill a goat and then coat ourselves in its blood?!!

Joseph: dude whats wrong with you... i gotta go eat some jesus fleshwafers and drink his blood

Mary: hahahaha

Joseph: BUT MINE ISNT REAL

Joseph: so i'm not crazy

Joseph: its just a pretend fleshwafer and pretend blood

Joseph: so that makes it perfectly sane

Mary: mm pretend

Mary: symbol

Mary: religion really is a goddamn crutch

Joseph: you do all this shit for god

Joseph: show me god

Joseph: GOD IS EVERYWHERE

Mary: yeah

Joseph: its like talking to a child

Joseph: they just make up answers

Mary: religion is really genius

Mary: because if you deny it

Mary: then you are a heretic

Mary: and are invalidated

Joseph: exploitation of all these built in mechanisms we have

Mary: yeah

Mary: a fucking human virus

Mary: self-replicating

Joseph: i want a copy of this whole convo publicly available

Mary: do it

Mary: it's so taboo to disrespect religion

Mary: you know what

Mary: FUCK RELIGION

Joseph: whoa now

Mary: hah

Joseph: only the ones that hurt us

Mary: HAHAHA

Joseph: we benefit from religion for the most part

Joseph: sure i catch some shit from my mom

Joseph: and a few crazy muslims lob some grenades at us every once in a while

Joseph: but mostly jesus just keeps people occupied so they dont steal my money

Mary: i dunno about that

Mary: have you seen these jesus solicitations

Mary: i get one in the mail probably 3 times a week

Joseph: so you get some extra junk mail

Joseph: and a knock on your door once a year

Joseph: HAVE YOU HEARD THE GOOD WORD?

Mary: i'm even considering what i read one guy did

get some heavy strips of scrap metal, and send them in the reply envelope and make them pay for the postage

Joseph: hahahah

Mary: he said it drastically reduced his mail

Joseph: but he'll go to hell

Mary: hah

Joseph: you should tell him to stop

Joseph: tell him about jesus

Joseph: he can still be saved

Mary: hahaha

Mary: the best thing about jesus is you can just be an ass your whole life

Mary: and then be saved on your death bed

Joseph: thats true, jesus is a bit of a chump like that

Mary: hahah

Joseph: 20 hail marys and you're set in eternity

Mary: yup

Joseph: i think its horrible those things you said

Joseph: very offensive

Mary: hahaha

Mary: fucking a

Mary: just thinking about this shit

Mary: riles me

Joseph: turn the other cheek

Mary: almost have to

Mary: god you can't thoguh

Joseph: our relgion says that if you get punched, you should invite your attacker to repeat his assualt

Mary: people do the stupidest shit in the name of "god"

Joseph: god forbid you do shit just because it makes sense

Mary: yeah seriously

Mary: how have we fucking allowed religion to just take over

Mary: and make us do stupid shit

Mary: amazing really

Joseph: a lot of the actions religions encourage are actions that should be encouraged

Joseph: but they do it in the most ass-backwards way

Joseph: and there's so many layers of bullshit

Joseph: and pedophiles

Mary: especially imagine how things used to be, churchs running governments and shit

Joseph: "hey, its cool if you dont, but i want to eat pork, ok?" OFF WITH HIS HEAD!!

Mary: god

Mary: and even now in US politics religion is such a fuck

Mary: like if some atheist were to run for president, he wouldn't even make it past the first hurdle

Mary: he would be shot down so quickly

Mary: a fucking faggot could beat him

Joseph: well thats what happens when everyone gets an equal vote

Mary: people shouldn't get equal votes

Joseph: democracy is built on the idea that the sum of ignorance is intelligence

Mary: yeah

Joseph: at least we formally established seperation of church and state

Mary: yeah that was good

My thoughts on the matter...

• To the extent that religion encourages people to act in ways that benefit themselves and each other, reglion is a good thing.
• To the extent that religion helps people deal with life's challenges in a positive way, religion is a good thing.
• To the extent that religion unites communities and encourages friendships, religion is a good thing.

Religion is only good for those first 3 points when it encourages people to act in a positive way when they ONLY act that way because of religion. I'd much rather have people try to act based on a rationally derived moral code. If some people couldn't come to a moral code on their own and find one in a reglion, we are all better off with the religion. But that is a very dangerous situation because those people are ripe for manipulation. They're being told what God wants by a possibly corruptible leader or a book written by those leaders. Those leaders become "the mouths of God" or the books become "the word of God." Then, when the wrong person acheives those positions of power, it is scary as shit.

• Doing anything based only on a belief that it is the will of an all-powerful deity is insane.

• Doing anything based only on a belief that it will have good or bad consequences in an afterlife is insane.

• Many practices encouraged by major religions made good sense at some point in history. Because the world has changed so drastically, many of those practices no longer make sense. Many of these take the form of taboos: food taboos, taboos on sexual acts between consenting adults, taboos about deviating from certain rituals. Continuing to strictly interpret these obsolete ideas to the point where it causes emotional distress is insane.

• The belief that the book of Genesis is a factually accurate historical account of the creation of Earth and humans is insane.

• We clearly see that many cult leaders are twisted geniuses who exploit their congregations, but we sometimes fail to that many similar figures exist within the leadership of major religions. Combine this phenomenon with the sexual taboos for religious leaders and you get major pedophilia scandals. How many sane, heterosexual males would voluntarily choose a life of complete abstinence? Let's make that group the only people who can be our leaders! Major religions use the same mechanisms as the crazy cults, they just drink pretend blood instead of real blood.
  

I'm an equal opportunity offender. Hopefully I've offended everyone's beliefs here. Next time I'll write about why every racial group sucks. Except Aboriginal Australians. I love those goofy little fuckers.

Sweet relief!

There isn't much in life that feels better than a big winning session after a rough downswing. But don't tell my girlfriend I said that...

TELL ME WHAT TO DO

Post a comment on here with recommendations of any movies, music, TV, books or anything else.

Recommendations so far:

Movies

• City of God - Watched it 6/18. Pretty good, worth watching. Probably not good enough that I would go out of my way to recommend it to someone several times though...
  

• Bad Education

• Equilibrium

• The Machinist

• Motorcycle Diaries

• Spiderman 1 or 2 -I suppose I'll probably watch these one day, but I don't usually have much interest in comic book movies. Batman Begins was awesome though.
  

• Taxi Driver - I've seen this, good movie.
  

• Waking Life

• The Primer
  

Music

• The Shins - They aren't available on my Yahoo service, so I doubt I'll check them out.
  

• Spoon - Same
  

TV

• Arrested Development

• The Shield -I've seen this show a little bit. It does look pretty good.

• Angels in America
  

Books

• Buffett: The Making of an American Capitalist

• Guns, Germs, and Steel -Currently reading it
  

• Freakonomics - Read in July 05. Check out their website and blog.

• How I Became Stupid, by Martin Page

• The Footprints of God, by Greg Iles

• Courtroom 302

• American Prometheus

• PROFESSIONAL POKER: The Essential Guide To Playing For A Living, by Mark Blade

• The Language Instinct, by Steven Pinker - I've read this. It is excellent.

Reorg

Among other reasons I do this blog to

- record my thoughts
- amuse myself
- amuse others
- keep in touch with people

I wanted to reduce the clutter and organize my thoughts, so thats what all the last few posts are. They are replacing a bunch of links on the right. The best of the links will get their own direct link, the 2nd tier gets a link to some links.

Amusements

Blue Oyster Cult - 2/16/05 - I got a fever, and the only prescription is...
I don't usually watch the news - 3/1/05 - Dan and I flip out over the idiocy of a news report
Vegas I - 3/21/05 - Famous people I saw on a recent Vegas Trip
Vegas II - 3/21/05 - Quick recap of the trip
Other Poker Sightings - 3/21/05 - More famous peope I've seen in casinos, and some I made up
What's Shabbos? - 3/24/05 - Shut the fuck up, Donny
Safety at work - 3/24/05 - That's me in the pink shirt
Classic - 4/5/05 - Funny analogies
Cacocallia - 4/8/05 - (KAK-uh-KAL-shee-uh) - The paradoxical state of being ugly but at the same time sexually desireable.
Once upon a time... - 5/16/05 - The boob story
Help! - 6/16/05 - I don't know what the hell this is
For pooping at work, Iggy is the 2nd best - 7/27/05 - Workdump.
Randomness - 9/21/05
A quick story about Megan - 10/6/05 - Crazy shit happens in McDonalds
Adspar's Guide to Beard Growing - 10/27/05
Party with Adspar - 10/31/05 - Adspar goes to a party. Good times.
Great picture - 11/2/05
BLAST! - 12/5/05 - I went to this gay show
Reader response - 12/8/05 - Reaction to the BLAST! post
Why would I hunt penguins? - 12/10/05 - Early warning of my collapse into insanity
Drinks with Megan - 12/31/05 - More crazy shit with Megan
9000 awesome words - 1/23/06
Top 5 things that come in cans - 1/23/07 - Clear evidence of full blown insanity


Gracious in Defeat 1
Gracious in Defeat 2
Gracious in Defeat 3
Gracious in Defeat 4


Online Poker Screen Names 1
Online Poker Screen Names 2
Online Poker Screen Names 3
Online Poker Screen Names 4

Sports

I hate losing - 1/26/05 - I hate to lose more than I love to win

NBA vs NCAA Basketball: A raging rant - 3/10/05 - I rant about how my preference for NBA basketball is often looked down on

NBA v NCAA part 2 - 3/14/05 - Continued

First Day Notes, and more NBA v NCAA - 3/28/05 - Wilbon chimes in

Grant Hill - 5/15/05 - I make fun of Grant Hill (and Bill Walton)

Seriously though

This index is in chronological order, earlier to latest.


What's love got to do with it? - 2/12/05 - Love is all you need
I'm a feedback whore - 2/17/05 - A self evaluation of my personality
Reactions to Personality - 2/18/05 - Reactions to above
Desiderata - 4/12/05 - The poem by Max Ehrmann
Sleep - 5/2/05 - Me and sleep. This can't be interesting to anyone but me.
Reading, Thinking, Writing... Being a Lazy Jackass - 6/17/05 - What do I want to do with my life?
Pokernomics - 7/11/05 - I offer my services to an economist's poker project.
Can you go to hell for what you post in a blog? -7/21/05 - A rant about religion
More Evolution - 8/7/05 - Thoughts on science
Premarital cohabitation - 8/27/05 - My girlfriend, who is way hotter than me, moves in.
Why I mostly ignore Government/Politics - 9/5/05
Oil - 9/7/05 - A political rant, 2 days after I say how I ignore politics
Science already knows me - 9/23/05 - More self-obsessing about my personality
Calling people racist is fun - 10/2/05 - Politics, race, abortion
tiny good deed - 11/10/05
Businesses that I hate - 12/9/05 - List so far includes Comcast and Fandango
Gifts: Bah-hum-bug - 12/19/05 - Sounds goofy but I'm serious
Atheism - 12/27/05 - I out myself as an atheist
Belief in God is comfortable.. why take that away? - 12/31/05 - more atheist discussion
War, terrorists, Paulp - 1/03/06 - Political discussion
followup - 1/04/06 - more from the topic above
0.9999... = 1 - 1/10/06 - kinda funny but serious too. How do people argue fact?
Atheism under fire - 1/16/06 my atheist discussions offend my family
Is believing in God stupid? - 1/18/06 - Sorta.
Am I better than you? and the value of dishonesty - 1/19/06 - people keep calling me names
"Don't blame religion for what evil people do" - 1/20/06
Communication is hard - 1/24/06

Poker Posts

On 2/10/06 I decided to start another blog devoted entirely to poker. All of the posts below are copied to it.


My poker evolution

Way back then... - 2/6/05 - A recap of my online poker career from Sept 2000 through December 2004
Happy New Year, now you suck at poker - 2/13/05 - Recap of a frustrating start to 2005
what to do - 3/21/05 - Brainstorming about my tendency to lose early in my live mid-limit hold'em sessions and win late
Poker Life (so far) - 4/12/05 - Reflections on my first couple weeks of playing full time
Reality - 4/26/05 - 1 month update
Not satisfied - 5/15/05 - Another update and plan
Its been a long day - 5/27/05 - A crazy day leads to a major shift in my approach
11 weeks now - 6/8/05 - update
Trip Recap - 6/13/05 - Atlantic City
Opportunity cost - 6/24/05
Cartesian Pokery - 6/26/05
Acceleration? - 7/15/05 - Setting a poker goal
I'm still here - various poker updates - 8/6/05 - Big hand, huge win, general progress report, musings.
Bad end to a great month - 8/31/05
Big Losses - 9/5/05 - Coping with losses
Drivel 3 - 9/9/05 - More coping with losses
A month of daily results - 9/23/05 - A list of numbers, no commentary
Temporary setback of the beginning of the end? - 9/25/05
Cartesian Pokery 2 - 9/27/05
Perspective - 10/1/05
Wallowing peppered with lies - 10/9/05
Back where I started - 10/17/05
Beatdown - 11/2/05 - ugh!
Methodology - 11/2/05 - Analyzing a huge losing streak
Back to where it all started - 11/7/05 - I go back to low limits
my poker past and future - 1/20/05 - Wallowing in medocrity, lamenting inadequate bankroll
More pictures: Poker Graphs - 1/23/06

Poker thoughts and stories

The Big Game - 2/23/05 - My first experience in the Bellagio $4,000/$8,000 game
The Royal - 5/26/05 - My history with royal flushes and playing in casinos underage
playing online poker for a living - 6/21/05 - pros and cons of this game
The value of a decision: to play or not to play - 6/30/05
Famous Poker Players - 8/30/05 - I like him and him, but I don't like him... lil bit gay.
Ease the tension - 9/10/05 - How to handle jackasses at your table
I've had 13 positive thoughts while pokering recently: - 9/30/05 - Lemons, lemonade, etc
Quick poker thought - 11/30/05 - the poker boom can last
terrible poker post, DO NOT READ - 1/20/06 - Terrible post from a terrible session


A bunch of hand analysis

Stalling with a pair of hands from tonight - 2/10/05
If they want to hang themselves, just give them the rope - 2/13/05
Small Stakes No Limit fun - 2/20/05
Coulda been worse - 2/21/05
Meanwhile, back at the tables... - 3/2/05
Curious George looks deeply at a hand - 3/7/05 - What a weird title
Some hands - 3/26
Its better to be lucky than good - 4/1/05
Hand Analysis - 4/7/05
How am I losing - 4/7/05 - Hands and rants about how bad people play
That oughta teach him - 4/23/05 - Don't limp with KK
Huge Pot - 5/28/05
Fun and games - 5/29/05 - Weird play and funny reaction
Hyperbole? Probably not... - 6/7/05 - The most amazing hand ever
Raising the river with the worst possible hand - 6/20/05
Eternal Shame - 9/18/05 - A hand that haunts me still
Redemption? - 9/18/05 - A similar hand that worked out better
For my poker-starved readers - 1/14/06

Entertainment: Movies, Music, etc

TELL ME WHAT TO DO

Books

Movies

Top Movies
Top Pure Comedies
Top Hybrid Comedies
Top Badass Movies

Top Movie Characters

King Kong sucked hard!

TV

Top TV Characters

Music

I Alone Cannot Stop the D - 4/13/05
Sympathy for the Devil - 4/8/05 - Kill the beast!
DMB - 4/27/05
My Yahoo! Artist Ratings - 9/16/05


Video Games

Video Games (and another top 10) - 4/2/05

Leaving my job

Gotta get out - 2/1/05 - Realizing that I needed a change

The fine line between genius and stupidity - 2/28/05 - Q&A about my decision to quit my job

Response from coworkers - 3/1/05 - How people at work responded to the entry above

To do: - 3/7/05 - Unorganized plans for unemployment

The Exit Interview - 3/25/05 - Interview with the HR leader on my last day

Reading, Thinking, Writing... Being a Lazy Jackass - 6/17/05 - Is poker enough?

Opportunity cost - 6/24/05 - financial comparison of poker v job

Observations - 10/12/05 - wasting time

I tell you what - 10/15/05 - losing money and enjoying it

1/5/06 - not interested, thanks

Non-poker Friends

my life, in ASCII - my boy Walt, we went to high school and college together

Da Honger - I worked with Dan at GE

Max & Lynnette's Peace Corp Experience - Lynnette left GE to join the Peace Corps with her husband Max

Bezoar - Mario, another friend from high school and college

Maybe Manda - Amanda, a friend from college

MassMarket - Liam, a man who needs no introduction (because you'd rather not know)


If you are my friend and would like a link, post a comment here.

Gravity

did we botch that?

funny

Blogging: If minds had anuses, blogging would be what your mind would do when it had to take a dump.

-credit-


Another worthless dump tonight. Can't sleep.

Wow

This was posted on 2+2.

SoBeDude Pooh-Bah Reged: 01/10/03 Posts: 2356 Loc: South Beach!!!

100 years ago, he'd a shot ya! #2448234 - 05/21/05 04:10 PM

This is a story to tell my grandkids on day. There is this little asian (LA) guy at my 20-40 table here in Harrah's New Orleans. He's stuck a lot. He tries to pull an angle on me after getting cards and trying not to post behind the button. (floor comes over to settle it, he was called by the dealer) After he posts, I complete in the SB, the BB checks, then dealer scoops all the money in to the pot, THEN the LA says wait he wants to raise. I say no way, call the floor back. Floor says no raise. I flop top pair with my 97, where he 4bets me on the flop and bets the turn and river with his A2o no pair and I scoop the pot. About 4 hands later, he gets up and walks over to me and smashes his full beer over my head. While I'm sitting there in shock he's apprehended and arrested. I'm so lucky. only several small minor cuts on my ear and head, and one big lump. My head hurts and my neck is killing me. The EMT, while cleaning out my head says, "Hey be thankful, 100 years ago he'd a shot ya!" -Scott

Right on cue

For my last 300 hands, I've lost $260/hr.

I asked for that!



300 hands: 2 hours
1st hour: -$1,0000
2nd hour: +$500

Acceleration?

I'm setting a goal of averaging at least $50 per hour over the next few months. That is 2.0 to 2.5 BB/100 hands playing 2 tables of $10/20, which I think is especially achievable playing limited hours with good game selection.

Translation for non-poker people:
I usually play limit hold'em where bets and raises are fixed in increments of $10 or $20, as opposed to the no-limit you see on TV. I think that I can average a profit of 2 to 2.5 big bets (big bet in this case being $20) per 100 hands I play, and I can expect 100 to 130 hands per hour or so. A win rate of 2.5 would be very ambitious (anything over 1.5 is good; over 3.0 is expert) if I was playing 4 tables at the same time for lots of hours, but if I only play under very favorable circumstances (lots of bad players at my table and few good players) and only have to concentrate on making good decisions at 2 tables, I think it is a reasonable goal.


For my last ~70,000 hands played, I've averaged $34/hour.
For my last ~13,000 hands played, I've averaged $77/hour.
For my last ~800 hands played, I've averaged $132/hour.

That last stat is just a joke. Those are the real numbers, but I'm sure I could find plenty of 800 hand samples where I won or lost $200/hour. This is a very volatile game, so you really have to look at the long run. Even the 13,000 hand sample isn't really enough to draw any specific conclusions other than that I've have a good last 13,000 hands.

What I really should also do is set a goal of playing a certain number of hours per week. Then I could estimate my total earnings, net out estimated living expenses, and project my bankroll growth to set an estimated date to move up to $15/30.

Not tonight though. I'm getting up "early" tomorrow to meet some former coworkers on their lunchbreak, so I better get some sleep.

Online Poker Screen Names 3

When you sign up to play poker at an online casino, you pick a screen name that other players see when you sit at a table. Here are some names I've played against. Players in red are losers in games I've played; green are winners.

(Online Poker Screen Names 1)

(Online Poker Screen Names 2)



Sexual/Vulgarity:

• jizmaster - Pretty much speaks for itself

• AssPoker - Pretty much speaks for itself. The AssPoker won a lot when we played. It was a lovely experience.
  

• NutsKickerNL - Curiously this guy was playing limit, when I saw him, not no-limit (NL). Maybe that's why he was losing.
  

• ea8tshtndie - Had to throw that 8 in there because eatshitanddie, eatshitndie, and eatshtndie must have been taken.
  

• eatmynuts1 - Once again, resorting to adding numbers because some other genius beat you to the original idea.
  

Drugs:

• GAMBOL4CRACK - Is there any other reason to gambol?

• cokedupninja - This is just a great name. Bravo.

Messages:

• DontEatMeat - In response to his suggestion, I'll quote Reel Big Fish: "Maybe I'm a murderer, but I'm hungry and they're better off dead." Maybe some protein would help your results, buddy.
  

• spirituality - Allah helps me hit my flushes.

• Jeter_Loves_LilBoys - I didn't actually play with this guy, but I saw him sitting in a game and his message rang true to me. But I suspect most of you already knew that Jeter is a homosexual pedophile.
  

• lysbexic - This noble public servant has taken it upon himself to warn the world about the dangers of dyslexia.

Weird:

• ryanquirk - I assume the guy's name is Ryan Quirk. What kind of weird last name is Quirk?

Funny References:

• Pete Rose - Insert your favorite Pete Rose gambling joke.

• bobamilktea - I don't know if this is why he picked this name, but there is a woman who walks through the Commerce Casino selling that stuff. In her thick Asian accent, she yells "boba tea... milk tea... boba MILK tea!!" Mildly amusing but curiously memorable. Adverbially speaking.
  

• cunningstunts - I didn't play with this guy either, but I recognized the classic punchline: What is the difference between a circus and a cheerleading team? A circus is a bunch of cunning stunts...

• chewygotu - What a wookie!

In response to "chez"

In response to my recent gem of an entry "Fuck Comcast," someone left this gem of a comment:

Chez said...

seems to me a serious card player, with a sole income source being from an online activity, would have had an emergency plan in place.

hmmm, guess not.

failure = when a lack of preparation meets a roadblock while the person in question is involved in an idiotic plan

Wow, I have a heckler. I'’m big time now. Allow me to respond.


a serious card player

Is he talking about me?



sole income source being from an online activity, would have had an emergency plan in place.

1. While I prefer online play for the most part, I'm quite comfortable making the 3 hour drive and playing in Atlantic City for a few days until the internet connection is back up. I would have done this but I had a trip to the Boston area planned for last weekend.
2. I had about 4 offers from people in my area to let me use their computer to play if I wanted.
3. At any point I could have switched to Verizon DSL. In fact I still might do that. But in spite of their awful service in response to this situation, Comcast's product is a better overall value while everything is up and running.
4. I've been running pretty hot the last few weeks, so taking an unexpected week of vacation is well short of a financial emergency.

a lack of preparation

I set aside 6 months of living expenses before I quit my job. If I lose my bankroll, I have 6 months to find a job. If poker is outlawed in the United States, I could comfortably live off my bankroll for at least a year if I had to. That is enough preparation for me at this point in my life.

roadblock

A roadblock would be somehow losing my entire bankroll. A roadblock would be a nationwide ban on poker. A roadblock would be breaking both of my hands. Losing my internet connection for a few days is a pothole.



while the person in question is involved in an idiotic plan

My plan is not to waste 50 hours a week at a job I don't like if I don't have to. My plan is to play poker an average of 20~30 hours per week to support myself and to use the extra free time to read, write, and figure out what I want to do with my life. I'm definitely an idiot though, so maybe thats why this seems like a good plan to me.


failure = when a lack of preparation meets a roadblock while the person in question is involved in an idiotic plan

Here are some other quotes about failure:

"I can accept failure, but I can't accept not trying."
-Michael Jordan

"With every effort, I learned a lot. With every mistake and failure, not only mine, but of those around me, I learned what not to do."
-Mark Cuban

"Success is not final, failure is not fatal: it is the courage to continue that counts."
-Sir Winston Churchill

"The majority of men meet with failure because of their lack of persistence in creating new plans to take the place of those which fail."
-Napoleon Hill

"Far better it is to dare mighty things, to win glorious triumphs, even though checkered by failure, than to take rank with those poor spirits who neither enjoy much nor suffer much, because they live in the gray twilight that knows not victory nor defeat."
-Theodore Roosevelt


Anyway, thanks to Chez for stopping by and using the internet for its highest purpose - to anonymously insult strangers with no threat of negative consequences for rude behavior.

Pokernomics

I've always been fascinated with trying to figure out why people act the way they act. Over the last year or so, I've read a lot about evolutionary psychology and other approaches to behavioral sciences that have blown my mind again and again.

I've mentioned Freakonomics a few times recently on this blog. I liked the book because it was mainly about asking why people act the way they act, but I found it particularly interesting because it was written by an economist. I think that when I first studied economics in high school I saw it as an exciting way to analyze people's actions, but after 4 years of college study with endless plotting of utility functions, currency conversions and lifeless textbooks, I think I forgot why I liked it in the first place. I turned down a fellowship to study economics at Johns Hopkins because I couldn't remember why I wanted to study it. Freakonomics reminded me.

I recently learned that Steven Levitt is running a project to study poker, Freakonomics style. Check it out.

I just sent them the letter below. I listed this blog as a point of contact. I'm amused that if they check this out, my recent posts will mostly be profane rants about how much I hate Comcast. Maybe they'll skip past that to some of my quasi-intelligent discussions of more relevant subjects.

I've been in contact with Dana Chandler about the Pokernomics project. I'm very interested in this research, and I have a database of over 100,000 hands that I am willing to donate.

Every hand of poker is a series of risk/reward decisions and an often confusing combination of strategies in response to incentives. Adding to the confusion, existing poker literature has been authored by poker players who could have mixed motives in revealing their secrets. Maybe conventional wisdom about optimal strategies is wrong. It is easy to see why poker is a great target for Freakonomical study.

The decision to play poker professionally is also an interesting one. Reading the chapter of Freakonomics about drug dealers, I couldn't help but think what a similar analysis of the poker world would find. With poker skyrocketing in popularity, lots of bright young minds are quitting their jobs or dropping out of school to hit the felt. Why are they choosing poker? Why not the corporate world and academia? Will they be successful with poker? Do they live with their parents?

In addition to donating my hand histories, I'd like to offer myself as a resource for this project. Working in the corporate world, I saw how big projects are always taking advantage of contributions from loosely labeled "subject matter experts." I'm reluctant to call myself a professional poker player, but I've been scratching a living off of poker winnings since I quit my job in March of this year. I used to be a student of economics (I completed my undergrad with a double degree in Finance and Economics and was offered a fellowship to the Economics Ph.D. program at the Johns Hopkins University), so I'd love any opportunity to contribute to a project that combines my academic field with my recently adopted profession.

I see in the FAQ that the project is fully staffed, but if I there is something I can offer - insights into the poker world, specific hand analysis, ideas for investigation, my own poker stories or anything else, please feel free to contact me.

ugh

I'm back. I hate Comcast.

Fuck Comcast

I can't believe I actually said something nice about Comcast recently. I take it all back. My internet and cable have been out since Saturday (7/2) morning and won't be back before next Tuesday (7/12) at the earliest.

On Saturday I called and they told me it was a temporary outage in my area that would be fixed in a few hours. It seemed believable since the same thing had happened the weekend before. Sunday morning it was still out, so I called again and after 15 minutes on the phone they couldn't figure out what was wrong and concluded they'd need to send someone out. Oh yeah and the earliest available date was a week away. Great, I'm an internet poker player without an internet connection for over a week. They told me I could maybe call back and if someone cancelled an appointment maybe I could move mine earlier.

So Tuesday I called and they told me they had an opening the next day. PRAISE ALLAH! Half an hour after the scheduled time, nobody had shown up. So I called them again. Every call takes at least 10 minutes before I speak to a person, by the way. "We have no record of an appointment being scheduled for today." WHAT?? "This shows that you called to inquire, but no appointment was actually made. Next Wednesday (7/13) is the earliest available time."

Wow. And this brief summary doesn't include all the various transfers between people over the phone and bizarre stories some of them made up. Amazingly bad customer service.

The only real internet and TV alternatives are Verizon DLS and Direct TV, but Comcast really does have the best deal. So I'm just bending over and waiting til Wednesday.