Methodology

Problem:

I've had 2 losing months in a row.

Hypotheses:

• I am a good but not great poker player.
• I have the skills to make a decent living playing limit hold'em.
• I could expect to average between 1.0 and 1.5 BB/100 hands in most full handed mid-limit games on PartyPoker.
• Deviation between actual results and the above is explainable by variance and psychological factors.
  

Background Info/Observations:

Definition: Earning 1.0 BB/100 hands means averaging $20 profit for every 100 hands at $10/20, or $30 for every 100 hands at $15/30, etc.

• A good player can earn 1.0-1.5 BB/100. A great player can make over 2.0 BB/100.
• It takes 50,000 to 200,000 hands to have much confidence in the accuracy of a winrate, because variance is so high.
• It isn't uncommon for a good or even a great player to have 20,000 hand stretches of losing or breakeven results.
• These are based on my interpretation of the collective wisdom of the message boards at 2+2. There are lots of discussions about these topics you can search for at the site.
  

Facts about my overall mid-limit record:

• 19,000 hands at $15/30, won 0.54 BB/100
  
• 32,000 hands at $10/20, won 1.37 BB/100
  

Facts about my record during the last 2 months:

• 8,900 hands at $15/30, lost 2.6 BB/100
  
• 19,000 hands at $10/20, won 0.54 BB/100
  

Discussion:

It seems pretty clear to me that my results are consistent with a good player who has hit the bad side of routine variance lately. When the best way to look at results is in the context of hundreds of thousands of hands, and I'm only playing 15,000 hands per month, my perception of results is going to be pretty skewed while I go through them in real time.

That being said, even if I can conclude I'm a good player, that doesn't necessarily translate to making a living. I've identified several obstacles I'll have to overcome if I want to make my living this way: endurance, multitasking, game selection and discipline.

• Endurance - I struggle to play more than 20 hours per week. Experimenting with forcing myself to play more hours showed me that when I go beyond that amount, my focus suffers and I lose my edge. I like the lifestyle of only playing 20 hours per week, so I don't really have any plans to keep working on this. This doesn't necessarily count me out though, since averaging $50/hr for 20 hours per week gives me enough to make a decent living for now.
  

• Multi-tasking - I've had mixed results with multi-tabling. In terms of handling the pace of it, I had no problem 4-tabling $3/6 and still winning a healthy amount. But my results at $5/10 while 4-tabling were far from stellar. My best results in the mid-limits have come while 2-tabling, so it would probably be best to stick with 2 tables until my I start to improve my results. I do think that I'll be able to increase to 4 tables or possibly 6 or 8 eventually.
  

• Game selection - I'm defining game selection as choosing games where my edge is the greatest. I think I'm generally pretty good at choosing the best available tables based on average pot size and similar statistics, and also based on knowing who the weakest players are. But a big problem with my game selection is that I tend to stay at the tables when games get shorthanded and a weak player is still playing. For whatever reason, I just haven't had much success with shorthanded play online. At that point, the edge that I enjoyed when the table was full starts to disappear, so I ought to leave the table when it drops below 7 players.
  

• Discipline - Discipline encompasses the 3 points above, among other things. I need to force myself to play the most amount of hours that I can do while still playing my best. I need to stick with 2 tables when I can't keep up with the action above that. I need to avoid shorthanded games or tables where my position isn't good. While I'm playing I need to focus and not be distracted by AIM or ESPN.com or anything else, and if I feel tilt setting in I need to take a breather. Poker is a game, but if I'm playing for a living I need to approach it in a professional manner.

Bankroll

Playing poker for a living is a lot like running a small business. If I remember one thing from studying entrepreneurship in college, it is that a large percentage of small business failures can be attributed to undercapitalization. I'll get back to this point in a bit.

I've noted that poker has a huge amount of variance, and my results have certainly shown it that too (the bottom lines of my last 5 months: +8,000, +400, +9,000, -2,000, -500). How do you combat variance in poker? Well if you want your monthly results to be more consistent, the best way is to play a huge number of hands every month. So my lack of endurance and limited multi-tabling experience make me more susceptible to high variance. Some guys have no problem putting in 50 hours per week or more and playing 8 tables at a time, which greatly decreases their variance in the same time period, and increases the chance of their poker business being successful.

So if you don't combat variance with volume, how else can you? Capital reserves. Bankroll. If my expected monthly earn isn't significantly above my monthly expenses, I need a much larger bankroll to minimize my risk of ruin. I've known for a long time that my bankroll is smaller than it should be, given my monthly expenses. Ideally, with my bankroll I'd be playing lower limits. But given my cost of living and the other weakness I mentioned above, I decided I had to be in the middle limits, and accepted the risks.

I think that part of the reason for my weak results at $15/30 was that I was playing scared. I think that part of the reason my shorthanded play sucks is that it naturally has higher variance and I play scared. I think part of the reason for this losing streak is that a few bad sessions while playing well caused me to lose confidence and start playing scared and weak. If I had a bigger bankroll I wouldn't play scared, and my results would be better. I'm going to say "scared" a few more times. Scared, scared, scared.

Conclusion:

Clearly if I can't keep bring in cash, I'll have to get a real job and my poker career will have been an enjoyable failure. It doesn't seem likely that I'll put in a lot more hands, so volume won't be my key to success. So its got to be a combination of these things:

• Improve my hand playing skills
• Improve my game selection
• Improve my discipline
• Decrease my expenses
• Increase my bankroll

Idea: Sell My House

Trading the mortgage payment for cheap rent would decrease my expenses, and the cash infusion from my gains would increase my bankroll. That would allow me to play higher limits with less pressure, which should help improve my playing skills and income.