Poker Life (so far)

Many tragedies come from our physical and cognitive makeup. Our bodies are extraordinarily improbable arrangements of matter, with many ways for things to go wrong and only a few ways for things to go right. We are certain to die, and smart enough to know it. Our minds are adapted to a world that no longer exists, prone to misunderstandings correctable only by arduous education, and condemned to perplexity about the deepest questions we can entertain.

-Steven Pinker

I quit my job on March 25. I guess technically I quit a month before that, but my last day was March 25. I didn't know what I wanted to do for the rest of my life, but I knew I didn't want to work at GE any more. I knew I had always been curious what it would be like to play poker full time, so I decided until I figure out something better to do, I'd play a lot for a while and see how it went.

I had heard and read a lot about what its like to do this for a living. There are plenty of magazine articles, websites, TV shows, and internet message boards that discuss the pros and cons, highs and lows, feels, smells, and tastes of professional poker. A couple weeks ago, someone who has been there summed it all up for me: "Poker can be a brutal life, but a lucrative one. I wouldn't suggest it, but you'll find out for yourself."

I named my blog from the Buddha quote I have at the very bottom of this page. I can do all the research about poker life or what it would be like to work for another company or to go back to school, but its the "find out for yourself" part that resonates for me.

To be successful in a poker career, aside from poker talent, I always thought I would need to be capable of distancing myself from emotion and making rational decisions. I also figured I'd need to be comfortable with more of a "loner" lifestyle, and capable of good bankroll management. I believed I had these characteristics and abilities. I've always seen myself as unemotional and introverted, and with my finance background I didn't think I'd have trouble with the bankroll management.

Now, not even 3 weeks into this thing, how it going? I still believe I have the poker talent; I'm thriving on the solitude; Sleeping til 3pm is awesome; bankroll management hasn't been a problem yet. What I do question is my emotional capacity for coping with adversity.

Humans are social animals. We have always lived and worked in groups, and depended on our group for survival. Each person has to be trusted to contribute, and each person had to be able to trust the group will reward that contribution. Because this bond of trust is so important to the stability of a group, and thus to our individual survival, we have evolved certain emotions to reinforce it. Positive feelings like loyalty, honor, brotherly love, respect, dedication, patriotism, honesty and trust are a psychological glue that keep us together.

The flip side of that coin is that some of the strongest negative emotions we feel are reactions to breaking that social covenant. We feel guilt, shame or disgrace when we wrong someone who trusted us, and the wronged party feels betrayed and desires revenge. A highly developed negative sense is our "cheater-detection mechanism." 120,000 years ago it was "that bastard Og in cave 3 is eating more than his share of the antelope meat we caught" and today it is "that bastard Ogden in marketing barely did anything for this project, but he's going to take advantage of my hard work." We are all keenly alert for people taking advantage of us.

We all have experienced some form of these universal emotions, and understand the intense power they have over our actions. That power reflects the critical importance that working together played in the evolution of our species, and the danger of being taken advantage of.

What does that have to do with me and poker? Sometimes weird things can inadvertantly trigger those intense negative emotions. When someone catches the only card in the deck that could have beaten me, it feels like an injustice. It feels like the world owed me better, and someone has to pay for it. Obviously this is completely irrational. I know that if I'm in that situation 100 times, I'll win 98 of them and get paid off handsomely. But, my innate understanding of statistics isn't as well-tuned as my rational understanding, and my own mind betrays me as I feel a burn like I've been wronged.

Since March 26 I've played over 15,000 hands of poker. To put that in perspective, if you played in a casino and were dealt 30 hands an hour, you'd need about 3 months of playing 40 hours per week to play that many hands. But because internet poker is a lot faster, and I can play multiple tables simultaneously, that represents 71 hours of play and a little over 2 weeks. In this short time, I've seen the brutality to which Luke alluded. (So far the lucrative part eludes me.)

It usually doesn't bother me very much when I absorb one or two "bad beats." My style of play lends itself to them, because when I'm in there playing a hand, I usually started with something very strong, so usually my wilder opponents need to get lucky to beat me, which is of course going to happen some of the time. The theory is that it won't happen enough of the time to prevent me from winning overall, and long term it hasn't.

When it does start to bother me is when it happens a few times in a row, or on huge pots. In the last 2.5 weeks, I've suffered 3 months worth of bad beats, and the effect on my emotional state is cumulative. Feel the burn over and over, and that shit adds up.

In poker, when you let something bother you enough that your play suffers, it is called going on tilt. I've read world-class professionals say something to the effect of "I can't hope to eliminate tilt in my game, just to minimize it. I think of it as a business expense." They understand that it is part of our nature.

I've been suffering from short-term and long-term tilt lately. Short term tilt gets set off by a few tough beats in a row, and suddenly I'm playing hands differently that I normally would, usually to my disadvantage. Then those short-term downfalls and other factors have contributed to me playing poorly over a longer horizon. My recent woes, while likely at least partially just some bad luck, are probably also due to some questionable play on my part. Its a pretty viscious spiral. Brutal.

So while it wasn't realistic for me to expect to just dive right into this and be emotionally prepared for it, I do think that I can learn. I've made some key adjustments recently that I think are helping to put me back on track.

In regards to short-term tilt, I've started trying to implement a very simple remedy - count to 3. I'm trying to force myself to count to 3 before I make any action in big pots, or in hands that are likely to cause an emotional response. I noticed that often when I'm confronted by an unexpected raise from an opponent, that I too quickly go into a passive/defensive style of play. Sometimes this might be appropriate, but often it is not. Counting to 3 is helping already.

In regards to long-term, I've noticed I'm tending to play too passively overall lately. Related to this, I'm limping in early position with some weakish hands. In an effort to plug this leak as soon as possible, I've implemented a few rules:

1.) No limping in early position preflop (the first 3 people to act after the big blind). This means that if I'm in bad position, I either raise or fold. This is forcing me to dump hands like A8s, KJo, JTs, and 55 that I used to limp with.

2.) No open-limping. If I'm the first person into a pot, I am raising. Period.

3.) Assume your opponents are morons unless you have overwhelming evidence to the contrary. Act accordingly. This means that 99% of the actions you are faced with are pretty straight-forward. You can't bluff a calling station, and you can't check-raise someone who is afraid of their shadow. Bluff sparingly. Bet for value. Don't get fancy, jackass.

These rules aren't perfect, but they do more good than bad. They are part of Pinker's "arduous education" intended to help me overcome my natural tendancies. I think my game is starting to get back on track.

This is fun.

Desiderata

Desiderata
by Max Ehrmann


Go placidly amid the noise and the haste,
and remember what peace there may be in silence.

As far as possible, without surrender,
be on good terms with all persons.
Speak your truth quietly and clearly;
and listen to others,
even to the dull and the ignorant;
they too have their story.
Avoid loud and aggressive persons;
they are vexatious to the spirit.

If you compare yourself with others,
you may become vain or bitter,
for always there will be greater and lesser persons than yourself.
Enjoy your achievements as well as your plans.
Keep interested in your own career, however humble;
it is a real possession in the changing fortunes of time.

Exercise caution in your business affairs,
for the world is full of trickery.
But let this not blind you to what virtue there is;
many persons strive for high ideals,
and everywhere life is full of heroism.
Be yourself. Especially do not feign affection.
Neither be cynical about love,
for in the face of all aridity and disenchantment,
it is as perennial as the grass.

Take kindly the counsel of the years,
gracefully surrendering the things of youth.
Nurture strength of spirit to shield you in sudden misfortune.
But do not distress yourself with dark imaginings.
Many fears are born of fatigue and loneliness.

Beyond a wholesome discipline,
be gentle with yourself.
You are a child of the universe
no less than the trees and the stars;
you have a right to be here.
And whether or not it is clear to you,
no doubt the universe is unfolding as it should.

Therefore be at peace with God,
whatever you conceive Him to be.
And whatever your labors and aspirations,
in the noisy confusion of life,
keep peace in your soul.


With all its sham, drudgery, and broken dreams,
it is still a beautiful world.
Be cheerful. Strive to be happy.

poor little guy

If laughing at painful awkwardness is as good for you as it is for me, check this out.

Cacocallia

Cacocallia (KAK-uh-KAL-shee-uh) - The paradoxical state of being ugly but at the same time sexually desireable.




Mena Suvari


Anna Paquin



Hilary Swank


Steffi Graf


Mary Pierce

Sympathy for the Devil

I started running again now that the weather is getting warm. Yesterday I did about 2.5 miles in about 25 minutes and was struggling. Today I did 3 miles in about 30 minutes and felt pretty good. I'd like to get to 4 miles in 30 to 32 minutes comfortably. Running with music helps a lot.

Speaking of music, I realized I have 2 songs that have been on my playlists recently that tell tales of the triumph of man over evil beings in musical competition:

Tribute, Tenacious D
The Devil Went Down to Georgia, Charlie Daniels Band

In Tribute, JB and KG defeat the shiny demon by meeting his demand that they play the best song in the world. They played the first thing that came to their heads, and it just so happened to be the best song in the world. I take no issue with the story.

But in Charlie's tale, the Devil squares off against Johnny head to head, and after hearing Johnny play, the Devil bows his head as a concession of defeat. What is going on here?? That doesn't sound like the Price of Darkness that I know and love. Johnny's chops were definitely impressive, but Satan and the band of demons layed it down pretty damn good. Come on guy, at least put the decision to a 3rd party! I'd vote for you.

I guess that's the problem though - you couldn't really find impartial judges like me. Most mortals would be so terrified of the Devil that they would be too scared to decide against him. And any that aren't afraid of him probably are going to be biased against him. Then the immortals are already going to have well-established allegiances to Heaven or Hell, so you wouldn't be able to trust their objectivity. This situation must have been what it was like trying to pick Olympic figure skating judges during the Cold War.

See, in Tenacious D's ballad, there was a clearly defined objective goal. There is one single best song in the world, and thats what they played. In fact, upon hearing it, the fallen beast assumed that Jack and Rage Kage must have been angels to have have played it. The power and genius of Tribute is that we never actually get to hear the greatest song in the world, because they couldn't remember it after that fateful night. The best song in the world is like Keyser Soze, achieving mythical status because you never really know exactly what happened.

I suppose it is possible that Johnny and Satan had some mutual understanding about how the winner would be objectively decided, but that seems improbable. The major flaw is that we the listeners get to hear the fiddle contest, which opens its outcome to debate based on our subjective preferences. I think the Devil won.

Regardless, the Devil knew that he'd been beat. And he laid the golden fiddle on the ground at Johnny's feet. I guess its good to know that the Devil is exceedingly honest in his business dealings, because the way this poker thing is going I might have to make a few wagers with him myself...



NAY! WE ARE BUT MEN!

ROCK!!

How am I losing?

How am I losing when these are my opponents? Look at this...

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (9 handed)
Preflop: WeepForMe is Button with Th, Ah. UTG calls, 4 folds, CO calls, WeepForMe raises, 1 fold, BB calls, UTG calls, CO calls.
Flop: (8.33 SB) 4s, 4c, 4d (4 players)BB checks, UTG checks, CO checks, WeepForMe bets, BB calls, UTG calls, CO folds.
Turn: (5.66 BB) 2s (3 players)BB checks, UTG checks, WeepForMe bets, BB calls, UTG calls.
River: (8.66 BB) 7d (3 players)BB checks, UTG checks, WeepForMe checks.
Final Pot: 8.66 BB
Results below: BB has Kd Ts (three of a kind, fours). UTG has Ad 9s (three of a kind, fours). WeepForMe has Th Ah (three of a kind, fours). Outcome: WeepForMe wins 8.66 BB.

This is weak passive poker from my 2 opponents here. Limping UTG (UTG = Under the Gun = 1st person to act after the blinds) with A9o is generally awful, mainly for the exact reason illustrated by this hand - if you are up against a better Ace you are in big trouble. I think calling a raise from a solid player with KTo from the big blind is a pretty bad play also, because too often you are up against a better King or a better Ten. Both of these guys called flop and turn bets with only 3 outs.

How can I be losing to these guys? Its not just the passive, suspicious call stations either:

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (9 handed) converter
Preflop: WeepForMe is Button with Ah, Ac. 5 folds, CO calls, WeepForMe raises, 2 folds, CO calls.
Flop: (5.33 SB) 3s, Jc, 7s (2 players)CO checks, WeepForMe bets, CO raises, WeepForMe calls.
Turn: (4.66 BB) 8h (2 players)CO bets, WeepForMe raises, CO calls.
River: (8.66 BB) 6d (2 players)CO checks, WeepForMe bets, CO calls.
Final Pot: 10.66 BB
Results below: CO has Qh 8c (one pair, eights). WeepForMe has Ah Ac (one pair, aces). Outcome: WeepForMe wins 10.66 BB.

Lets walk through this hand from the perspective of my opponent, Mr. CO (CO = Cutoff = the person sitting to the right of the button):

Hi, I'm the moron in the cutoff. Everyone folds to me, and I look down and see a potential monster hand with my unsuited Q8. Rather than raise and risk everyone folding and suffer the disaster of just stealing the blinds, I'm going to limp. Excellent! The unsuspecting fool in on the button raises for me! I'll just call for now. He'll never know what hit him.

HAHA!!! My dream flop, J73 with 2 spades! I have a spade! Oh no wait, I don't, but no matter. I still have the powerful Queen high. Given that the button raised preflop, he'll probably bet if I check, so I'll do that and continue my trap. He fell for it, what a chump! At this point the only possible hand he could have is AK, which I can't beat yet, but I know that nobody on PartyPoker ever calls to the river with an unimproved AK, I'm going to check-raise him and outplay him. Ha! He just called my raise, he must not have anything. Maybe I'm even winning with my Queen. I am so good at poker!!!!!

Woah, the turn was my supercard. Now I have a pair of eights, so I have to keep betting. What?? He raised?? He must not know I have a pair of eights. Hmmm, $6 more? I better call this. I guess he might have a better hand than me, but that seems pretty unlikely. I'll just play it safe and call.

Darn, that river didn't help me. I'll do this guy a favor and just check my pair of eights. He bet again? Maybe he has that Jack after all. I'm going to call him though, just to keep him honest. Nobody bluffs me out of a hand!

How am I losing to these hopeless bluffing clowns? Even when they stop bluffing, they just keep hoping...

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (10 handed)
Preflop: WeepForMe is SB with Kd, Kh. UTG calls, 3 folds, MP2 calls, 2 folds, Button calls, WeepForMe raises, 1 fold, UTG 3-bets, MP2 calls, Button folds, WeepForMe calls.
Flop: (11 SB) 4s, Ah, 5c (3 players)WeepForMe checks, UTG bets, MP2 calls, WeepForMe calls.
Turn: (7 BB) 4d (3 players)WeepForMe checks, UTG checks, MP2 checks.
River: (7 BB) 6h (3 players)WeepForMe bets, UTG folds, MP2 calls.
Final Pot: 9 BB
Results below: WeepForMe has Kd Kh (two pair, kings and fours). MP2 has 7c 7d (two pair, sevens and fours).
Outcome: WeepForMe wins 9 BB.

First let's talk to MP2 (middle position #2). Given a preflop raise from the SB (small blind) and a 3bet, and then 2 other people putting money in on an Ace-high flop, did you really believe that 77 could win this hand? Even when the UTG guy folds, what did you think I had? You watched me raise preflop from awful position. If you had been paying attention, you'd see I am a pretty tight player, so to raise from there I probably had to have a big pair or an Ace with a good kicker, right? In fact, the only pocket pair you can beat on the river is 22 or 33, so you must think I have that? Or maybe you thought I'd get wild with KQ? Please keep playing in my games.

Second, lets talk to trendy young man who decided after calling the blinds that he would try "that sweet move everyone is doing these days," the limp-reraise. Look son, I know you think that is a cool move to try with your 89s, but you really ought to save it for another time. Like maybe when you have a few more people in the pot, or a bit better position for later in the hand. Or maybe wait for when you have a fucking clue. Leave the big boy tools for the big boys to use. Go play on a swing set.

Ok, so in all of those hands I knew I was in pretty good shape, and was glad that my inept opponents made it easy for me. What about hands where it isn't so clear?

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (9 handed)
Preflop: WeepForMe is BB with Th, 8s. 3 folds, MP2 calls, 3 folds, SB completes, WeepForMe checks.
Flop: (3 SB) 5s, 3s, Ts (3 players)SB checks, WeepForMe bets, MP2 calls, SB calls.
Turn: (3 BB) Js (3 players)SB checks, WeepForMe checks, MP2 bets, SB calls, WeepForMe folds.
River: (5 BB) 3h (2 players)SB checks, MP2 checks.
Final Pot: 5 BB
Results below: SB has 6c 7s (flush, jack high). MP2 has 9h Td (two pair, tens and threes). Outcome: SB wins 5 BB.

Folding the best hand is always annoying. I had this hand wrong from beginning to end. I got to see the flop for free, and immediately didn't like the situation I was in. I actually flopped the exact same thing recently (I had top pair of tens on a flop with 3 spades and the 8 of spades as my kicker. I was up against someone with AT and the Ace of spades, and it sucked.) and didn't want the same thing to happen. When everyone called the flop bet I remember thinking that I had the best hand and that I hoped a spade didn't hit, so I checked when the spade hit. It never occured to me that MP2 might have been playing a ten, and that the SB would call a bet with no pair and a spade lower than my 8.

So I was completely clueless this hand. If this was $15/30 and we encountered the same flop situation, I would have bet, the T9 guy would have raised to protect his vulnerable top pair, and the small blind would have folded. Then I would have check-called the rest of the way and won. But I don't play $15/30 online. I don't play $15/30 because I don't have the bankroll. I don't have the bankroll because I can't beat $3/6 for enough money to build my bankroll. I also don't play $15/30 because every time I've taken a shot at it I get crushed. I get crushed probably for the same reason that I can't beat the $3/6 game, which is that I don't know what the hell I'm doing most of the time regardless of the limit. So I probably shouldn't play for higher stakes against better players. Not that that usually stops anyone.

Sorry for that rant. I conclude that my cluelessness this hand was only because my opponents misplayed their hands so much that I couldn't possibly know what what going on. I'll just keep telling myself that. (How am I losing to these guys?)

So usually I'm completely clueless. But sometimes I know what's up. Observe:

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (9 handed)
Preflop: WeepForMe is UTG with Jd, Jc. WeepForMe raises, UTG+1 calls, 3 folds, CO calls, 2 folds, BB calls. Flop: (8.33 SB) 4c, Qs, 6h (4 players)BB bets, WeepForMe calls, UTG+1 calls, CO calls.
Turn: (6.16 BB) 5h (4 players)BB bets, WeepForMe folds, UTG+1 calls, CO folds.
River: (8.16 BB) Ks (2 players)BB checks, UTG+1 bets, BB calls. Final Pot: 10.16 BB
Results below: BB has Qd 8s (one pair, queens). UTG+1 has 7h Ah (high card, ace). Outcome: BB wins 10.16 BB.

I've had a rough time today with JJ, and this time I knew enough to lay it down. I guess I smelled his Q, but apparently the guy who coldcalled my UTG raise with A7 did not get the whiff. How am I losing to these people?

In the next hand I combined cluelessness and a sense of smell. I smelled danger, but I'm clueless as to whether it was right.


Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (10 handed) converter
Preflop: WeepForMe is Button with Qs, Kc. 1 fold, UTG+1 calls, 3 folds, MP3 calls, 1 fold, WeepForMe raises, 1 fold, BB calls, UTG+1 calls, MP3 calls.
Flop: (8.33 SB) Kh, 7h, Jd (4 players)BB checks, UTG+1 bets, MP3 calls, WeepForMe raises, BB folds, UTG+1 calls, MP3 calls.
Turn: (7.16 BB) 3d (3 players)UTG+1 checks, MP3 checks, WeepForMe bets, UTG+1 calls, MP3 raises, WeepForMe calls, UTG+1 3-bets, MP3 caps, WeepForMe folds, UTG+1 calls.
River: (17.16 BB) 3c (2 players)UTG+1 folds.
Final Pot: 17.16 BB
Results below: MP3 doesn't show. Outcome: MP3 wins 17.16 BB.

Everything was going along fine until the turn. I had a decent hand got a decent flop, although not one I was entirely comfortable with. There were lots of draws, so I wanted to keep the pressure on.

On the turn, Mp3 (middle position 3) checkraised me, which sent off huge warning bells on this board, especially because I had observed that player to be very straightforward (he had the Q8 from the last hand). It probably meant he had a set, but I called 1 more bet hoping that he had a vulnerable 2 pair and I had the odds to chase it.

Then in got weird, as UTG+1 (UTG+1 = the guy after UTG = 2nd to act after the blinds) decided to 3bet it. Given his actions so far I read this to mean he had a big draw, either the nut heart flush draw from the flop since he bet at it, or perhaps he bet the flop with QT for an openended straight draw and maybe backed into the diamond flush draw also. I thought I had him beat, but when the guy caps, I let go of my hand. I'm pretty sure I would have lost, but for 17 bets I have to be pretty damn sure of it for the laydown to be correct.

At this point, you'll notice that I've been folding a lot of hands. You might suggest that the reason I'm losing is that I'm folding too often, even if the hands I've shared here all should have been folded. Maybe that is the case, or maybe not:

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (9 handed) converter
Preflop: WeepForMe is CO with 6d, 6c. 3 folds, MP2 calls, MP3 raises, WeepForMe calls, 1 fold, SB calls, 1 fold, MP2 calls.
Flop: (9 SB) Tc, 4c, 7d (4 players)SB checks, MP2 bets, MP3 calls, WeepForMe raises, SB folds, MP2 calls, MP3 calls.
Turn: (7.50 BB) 3c (3 players)MP2 checks, MP3 bets, WeepForMe calls, MP2 folds.
River: (9.50 BB) 2s (2 players)MP3 bets, WeepForMe calls.
Final Pot: 11.50 BB
Results below: MP3 has Ad Qc (high card, ace). WeepForMe has 6d 6c (one pair, sixes). Outcome: WeepForMe wins 11.50 BB.

Sometimes I'll fold 66 to a preflop raise, sometimes I'll 3 bet. This time I called.

That isn't a flop that was likely to have helped anyone. Mp2 seemed to be thinking the same thing when he bet the flop, and when the preflop raiser just called it, I decided to raise. I thought there was a decent chance I had the best hand, and I wanted see where I stood. I didn't like it that the SB called 2 cold, but he later folded the turn for 1 bet, so he's an idiot.

The preflop raiser comes to life and bets out when the turn brings a 3rd club. This struck me as extremely suspicious. Given that he raised preflop, if he had 2 big clubs in his hand, I think he would have raised the flop. I think he also would have raised the flop with an overpair or with a ten in his hand, so I concluded that he must have decided to bet out with the A or K of clubs as a semibluff. I definitely wasn't going to fold, but I decided I didn't want to raise and then get 3bet by MP2 if he was betting out on the flop with a flush draw. In retrospect I think I should have raise here to force MP2 to fold a 7 or a T, but luckily he must not have had a pair because he folded. I conclude he didn't have a pair because nobody in the history of Party Poker $3/6 has ever folded a pair for 1 bet.

The river call is easy, and I win a big pot with a shitty hand, because I'm so very awesome. How am I losing to these players?

Obviously I picked these hands specifically to tell a story. Given the thousands of hands I play, I could probably pick out a few hands that tell any story I want. (Maybe I should do a followup post, "Oh wait... this is why I'm losing." I have about 17,000 hands to tell that story.)

That is what makes a losing streak of this duration so frustrating, especially when my key metrics really haven't changed at all. I could come up with any kind of theory about what is wrong, and I'd probably be able to find plenty of evidence for it. But then I'd get cute and be able to find plenty of evidence against it as well. There are no easy answers. I'll keep doing analysis both of individual hands and of my overall stats, hoping to find something that I can fix, but I'm resigned to the idea that it won't be so simple. For now I'm just going to keep playing. I think I can turn it around.

Because making unbeatable hands is so rare, playing hold'em without confidence is dangerous. Even the worst players seem to be able to smell blood somehow, even online. And so losing can be contagious and there is no simple prescription like "tighten up," "be more aggressive," or "more cowbell." I think that one thing writing this helped me realize is that my instincts are usually pretty good, and maybe too often I'm talking myself out of following them.

Thoughts?

Hand analysis

It is nice to have someone to talk about hands with.

Adspar: i 3bet an UTG raiser (his VPIP is 19%) w/TT, that guy cold calls
Adspar: K7x flop, UTG checks, i bet, cold call folds
Adspar: UTG checkraises, i fold
Adspar: what do you think?
Adspar: i cant imagine him taking that line with a hand i can beat
DK: i agree
DK: the pot may have been big enough to try and spike a 10 though
DK: if it was 3 bet preflop
Adspar: hmm
DK: and you think it will be good
Adspar: if he has AK
DK: in general i hate getting mixed up with those guys thougu
Adspar: he's 91% favorite
Adspar: basically 10 to 1
DK: yeah
DK: the pot was laying you more than that i imagine
Adspar: and i'm getting 12 to 1 on my call
DK: so i think unless you think he has KK you can call that
Adspar: but for him to raise preflop
Adspar: and then checkraise me after i 3bet him
DK: yeah
DK: strong
Adspar: he's got to put me on AA, KK, QQ, AK when i 3bet
Adspar: and knowing his own cards, he can rule out some of those
Adspar: so for him to 3bet i gotta think KK is in there enough to maybe justify the fold
Adspar: i should have thought about that 12-1 price though
DK: sometimes you can tell too by whether he capped preflop
DK: some people are always cap
DK: some are not
Adspar: i just thought: i'm up against AA, KK, or AK
DK: yah
Adspar: if he definitely had one of those, its probably a good fold still
DK: yah
Adspar: actually, if he definitely has AA, KK, AK then its by far a good fold
DK: well yeah
DK: KK is a big chunk there
Adspar: 6 ways AA, 3 ways KK, 12 ways AK
DK: so 17% time KK or so
DK: 14%
DK: rather
Adspar: so 86% of the time i have a 9% chance to win. 14% i have basically 0
DK: yeah
Adspar: so i have 7.7%
DK: so what way does that tip it
Adspar: thats basically 12 to 1
DK: hah
Adspar: so i can do whatever i want
DK: yeah
DK: if you think that's too conservative, call
Adspar: probably with the implied odds its worth playing
DK: this is all with the understanding that you're probably folding the turn
DK: ooh yeah
Adspar: good to know for next time some moron cold calls 3 and juices it up
DK: yah
DK: so how many bets did we neeed
DK: 12 to 1
Adspar: for even money, yes
DK: which is 3 * 3
Adspar: huh?
DK: i was just thinking 3 players 3 bets
DK: preflop
Adspar: right, plus my 1 and UTG's 2 on the flop
DK: yah

Conclusion - It would have probably been right to see the turn here, but its a close call.

What the hell is going on?

From August to December 2004 I played 13,601 hands of $3/6 full handed hold'em and won at a rate of 6.29 BB/100 hands.

Since January 1, 2005 I have played 17,230 hands and lost at a rate of 0.98 BB/100 hands.

I feel like a loser whenever I play this game now. Very frustrating.

Classic

Winners of the "worst analogies ever written in a high school essay" contest.

He spoke with the wisdom that can only come from experience, like a guywho went blind because he looked at a solar eclipse without one of those boxes with a pinhole in it and now goes around the country speaking at high schools about the dangers of looking at a solar eclipse without one of those boxes with a pinhole in it. (Joseph Romm,Washington)

She caught your eye like one of those pointy hook latches that used to dangle from screen doors and would fly up whenever you banged the door open again. (Rich Murphy, Fairfax Station)

The little boat gently drifted across the pond exactly the way a bowling ball wouldn't. (Russell Beland, Springfield)

McBride fell 12 stories, hitting the pavement like a Hefty Bag filled with vegetable soup. (Paul Sabourin, Silver Spring)

From the attic came an unearthly howl. The whole scene had an eerie, surreal quality, like when you're on vacation in another city and"Jeopardy" comes on at 7 p.m. instead of 7:30. (Roy Ashley, Washington)

Her hair glistened in the rain like nose hair after a sneeze. (ChuckSmith, Woodbridge)

Her eyes were like two brown circles with big black dots in the center. (Russell Beland, Springfield)

Bob was as perplexed as a hacker who means to access T:flw.quid55328.com\aaakk/ch@ung but gets T:\flw.quidaaakk/ch@ung bymistake (Ken Krattenmaker, Landover Hills)

Her vocabulary was as bad as, like, whatever. (Unknown)

He was as tall as a six-foot-three-inch tree. (Jack Bross, Chevy Chase)

The hailstones leaped from the pavement, just like maggots when you fry them in hot grease. (Gary F. Hevel, Silver Spring)

Her date was pleasant enough, but she knew that if her life was a moviethis guy would be buried in the credits as something like "Second Tall Man." (Russell Beland, Springfield)

Long separated by cruel fate, the star-crossed lovers raced across thegrassy field toward each other like two freight trains, one having left Cleveland at 6:36 p.m. traveling at 55 mph, the other from Topeka at 4:19 p.m. at a speed of 35 mph. (Jennifer Hart, Arlington)

The politician was gone but unnoticed, like the period after the Dr. on Dr Pepper can. (Wayne Goode, Madison, Ala.)

They lived in a typical suburban neighborhood with picket fences that resembled Nancy Kerrigan's teeth (Paul Kocak, Syracuse, N.Y.)

John and Mary had never met. They were like two hummingbirds who had also never met. (Russell Beland, Springfield)

The thunder was ominous-sounding, much like the sound of a thin sheet of metal being shaken backstage during the storm scene in a play. (Barbara Fetherolf, Alexandria)

His thoughts tumbled in his head, making and breaking alliances like underpants in a dryer without Cling Free (Chuck Smith, Woodbridge)

The red brick wall was the color of a brick-red Crayola crayon.

Video Games (and another top 10)

An unemployed jackass who just spent the last few days blogging about his favorite movies shouldn't be allowed into Best Buy. There should be rules to protect me against myself.

I went in to pick up the new Splinter Cell game on Friday, and I came back with 8 DVDs too. They always have those specials where they bundle 3 movies together for $20 and I can't resist buying a movie I like for $10 or less, so I go nuts.

I don't play video game very much, but I occassionally get really into one. I bought an XBox a few years ago specifically to play the first Splinter Cell game (the 3rd just came out). I bought a few other games, but couldn't really get into them and never touch them now. Until Friday, I hadn't even played a game on my 55" HDTV that I bought in July.

I bought an N64, in 2002 I believe, just to play Bond. I didn't even buy another game except for Perfect Dark, which was a quasi-sequel to Goldeneye. Bond had an amazing multiplayer game that we played way too much in college, and I got way too good at it. MarioKart was fun too.

My parents never bought me a video game system, but how I managed to get a Nintendo is an amusing story. In 5th grade, our teacher made us all enter a writing contest. I don't remember what I wrote about, but I managed to win it, and the prize was a gift certificate to Walden Books. I took it to a Walden Software store and redeemed it for a Nintendo system and Super Mario 3, completely defeating the spirit of the contest. I ended up with a lot of games for that system, since they were pretty cheap by the time I got it.

This introduces another top list - my favorite video games from my limited video game experience.

Top 10 favorite video games:

1.) Goldeneye 007 - N64 - The facility cheat code, 4 player grenade launchers in the complex, Oddjob, Plithy comebacks. SILLY!
2.) Super Mario Brothers 3 - original Nintendo - Each Mario game was different enough to count them all separately. The hammer suit was awesome. Warp Whistles, P-wings, disappearing behind the white blocks. Money.
3.) Splinter Cell - XBox - Each of these games is almost the same, so they all count together. These games are amazingly realistic. Sam Fisher is a badass.
4.) MarioKart - N64 - Jumping the walls in the level I called "dirt farm" and pissing everyone off was sweet.
5.) Contra - original Nintendo - Up, Up, Down, Down, Left, Right, Left, Right, B, A, (B, A, Select), Start
6.) Madden Football - Playstation 2 - The only sports video game I've ever really liked. Whatever version we played in college, I used to use the Broncos, and there was a Hail Mary pass that I always had Greise throw to easy Ed McCaffery that was unstoppable. Erm used to get so pissed about it.
7.) Zelda - original Nintendo, N64 - I know there were lots of these games, but I've only played 3 of them. The first one for the original Nintendo, and the 2 for N64. I always said the whole point of Zelda is to avoid being annoyed. Especially in the N64 versions with all the magical music and the pony and whatnot, everything was so annoying, yet still completely addictive. I never bought these games, so I must have borrowed them from someone.
8.) Halo - XBox - The multiplayer is very very cool. Single player sucked.
9.) Perfect Dark - N64 - They tried to make a sequel to Bond. Props on the effort, but next time don't use stupid looking aliens as the enemies instead of Russians. I don't care if you don't have the rights to the Bond names any more, just use generic looking spies and call the hero Jim Bondsworth or something. I'm only putting this on the list to emphasize how awesome the first one was.
10.) Super Mario Brothers 2 - original Nintendo - This game was just so damn weird, but it was fun.

Its better to be lucky than good

"Its better to be lucky than good" is a saying I hear all the time around poker games. Here are some hands from tonight to illustrate. Results and commentary are in white beneath the hands, to preserve suspense for you, my faithful reader. Simply highlight the text in that area to get your jollies.



Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Golden Boy is MP2 with 9s, As.
4 folds, Golden Boy raises, 4 folds, BB calls.

Flop: (4.33 SB) 9c, 5s, Qc (2 players)
BB checks, Golden Boy bets, BB raises, Golden Boy 3-bets, BB calls.

Turn: (5.16 BB) 6d (2 players)
BB checks, Golden Boy bets, BB calls.

River: (7.16 BB) Td (2 players)
BB checks, Golden Boy bets, BB calls.

Final Pot: 9.16 BB

Results and commentary in white below:
BB has Jc Tc (one pair, tens).
Golden Boy has 9s As (one pair, nines).
Outcome: BB wins 9.16 BB.

I somehow knew he had JTc when he checkraised that flop. I was sure of it. That actually makes him a favorite (66-34) but I decided to 3bet, partially to get information to validate my read, and partially to make him think I have a Q instead of a 9. When he hits the ten on the river, I bet hoping he'd fold because I played the hand like I had a queen. Oh well.

Maybe I should classify this as him getting lucky, since he did have the better hand on the flop. But I wouldn't have put another bet in on the river if he hit his flush or straight, which is what he was hoping for. Only the Jack or the Ten would have gotten him that extra bet. So he's lucky? Whatever, lets move on...



Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Golden Boy is Button with As, Ts.
2 folds, UTG+2 raises, 4 folds, Golden Boy 3-bets, 1 fold, BB calls, UTG+2 caps, Golden Boy calls, BB calls.

Flop: (12.33 SB) 6d, 7h, 8d (3 players)
BB checks, Golden Boy raises, BB calls.

Turn: (8.16 BB) 5d (3 players)
BB checks, Golden Boy bets, BB raises, Golden Boy folds.

River: (11.16 BB) 2h (2 players)

Final Pot: 11.16 BB
Results in white below:
BB has Qh 9h (straight, nine high).
UTG+2 has 8h Ac (one pair, eights).
Outcome: BB wins 11.16 BB.

Normally I'd fold ATs to an early position raise, but there were several factors that made me strongly suspect I had the best hand. I had just seen the guy limp and then horribly misplay AK, so he seemed like he'd be likely to misplay other hands. He was also very shortstacked, and I've seen enough of these shortstacked donkies to know that they play stupid hands way too hard. So I 3bet hoping to isolate him. Alas, the brilliant player in the big blind decides his Q9s is worth calling 2 cold, and he hits his hand on the turn. I like my read and my play, but its better to be lucky than good.

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Golden Boy is UTG+2 with 7d, 7h.
2 folds, Golden Boy raises, 2 folds, MP3 calls, 2 folds, SB calls, BB calls.

Flop: (8 SB) 4c, Kd, 3d (4 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Golden Boy bets, MP3 calls, SB folds, BB folds.

Turn: (5 BB) 3h (2 players)
Golden Boy bets, MP3 calls.

River: (7 BB) As (2 players)
Golden Boy checks, MP3 bets, Golden Boy calls.

Final Pot: 9 BB

Results in white below:
Golden Boy has 7d 7h (two pair, sevens and threes).
MP3 has 5h 2h (straight, five high).
Outcome: MP3 wins 9 BB.

Obviously this guy is a dolt, calling 2 cold with 52s. I was sure he didn't have a King when he simply called the flop, so I bet the turn, and check-called the scary river. I expected to see A6o or some crappy Aces, but the wheel said: It is better to be lucky than good!


I've disguised which hand is mine here.
Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (8 handed) converter

Preflop:
2 folds, MPA raises, 1 fold, CO 3-bets, 1 fold, SB calls, 1 fold, MPA calls.

Flop: (10 SB) Ts, Qd, Ks (3 players)
SB folds, MPA bets, CO raises, MPA 3-bets, CO caps, MPA calls.

Turn: (9 BB) Qs (2 players)
MPA bets, CO raises, MPA 3-bets, CO calls.

River: (15 BB) As (2 players)
MPA checks, CO bets, MPA calls.

Final Pot: 17 BB

Results in white below:
MPA has Kc Qh (full house, queens full of kings).
CO has Td Tc (full house, tens full of queens).
Outcome: MPA wins 17 BB.

I had the KQ. I opened for a raise, and was very uncomfortable when a tight solid winning player 3bet me. He'd have to have a big pair or AK or unlikely AQ. Since I have KQ, I figured his most likely holdings are AA, JJ, TT. If the small blind hadn't called, I would have seriously considered folding, but I had to call 1 more bet getting 9 to 1 on my call.

At first I love the flop. If he has AA, AK or AQ, he's in serious trouble. There's no way he has AJ, but I do need to be worried about TT or the JJ open-ended straight draw. I decide to bet out , planning to 3bet, rather than go for a checkraise or wait for a later street to reraise. I want to get as much money in this flop as possible if he's drawing. When he caps instead of calling the 3bet, I'm seriously concerned about TT. I've represented AJ pretty well, so I think with AA or JJ he'd just call the flop probably, although maybe he'd keep ramming AA.

I catch a beautiful turn card and get 3 bets in on the turn. He thinks I have AJ at this point, so he raises my bet, but changes his mind when I 3bet him. At this point his most likely hand is TT, but AA or JJ with the Js are still possible, which is why the river scares me and I check. I didn't lose any money though, cause he wouldn't have raised a river bet, but he'll bet TT if I check to him.

Preflop he was a 56.5% - 43.5% favorite, and on the flop he was an 82% favorite. I got lucky!

RIP Hedberg

Can't say I didn't see it coming, but I'll miss this guy. Dude was funny.

First Day Notes, and more NBA v NCAA

Thanks to the dozen people who IMed me today asking how my first day of joblessness was going, and my apologies for not responding to most of you. So far it doesn't really seem real. It just feels like a long weekend.

In the last 2 days I've played 7.5 hours and 1,478 hands. I lost $126.67 and cleared another $100 worth of Party Poker bonus.

I began my massive house cleaning project, watched Pulp Fiction (top 5) and Swingers (top 10 pure comedies). Hmmm, I should write about my favorite movies. I also cleaned my trumpet, with the intention of playing it tomorrow.

Here are a pair of Mike Wilbon quotes that Clint brought to my attention:

1.)
As dramatic as the tournament often is, with all the upsets and buzzer-beating shots that become part of college basketball history, the play is very often -- how do I say this? -- spotty. Games, even between the good teams, are often a matter of attrition. Tournament games have steadily declined in quality for the simple reason that there are fewer and fewer skilled players in college every year.

2.)
As for the person who is "daring" me to provide reasons the NBA playoffs are more exciting than college basketball, why would I waste my breath. You're a college fan who probably thinks he knows everything about basketball and would spit out a bunch of dumb reasons the college game is more exciting without knowing anything real about the pro game. A great many of the people who spew that junk have their own issues to deal with.

I'll say this: The college game is exciting.

The NBA Playoffs are exciting.

But don't try to convince someone who has spent 25 years covering both that the college kids are more fundamentally sound and play better defense and all this garbage.

For all the college basketball know-it-alls, ask yourself this: If a college basketball player played better defense than his pro counterpart, why wouldn't he try out, make a roster as a defensive starter, then make the average NBA salary of $3.5 million?

Because he can't. Because the college game, while exciting, isn't as good. It isn't as well played, as well-officiated, as well coached, as well anything. It's a step below.

If you don't like the pro game just have the guts to say, "I don't like it" instead of hiding behind all the codes and personal agendas. People are allowed to like and dislike whatever they want. Discerning basketball fans see the beauty of both.

Well said, Wilbon.

Good day

Personal

• Annual family Easter party in Annapolis
• Brought my girl to meet everyone (I think she still likes me)
• Good food
• Good times

Financial

• Played 4.3 hours
• Played 981 hands
• Won $124.5
• Earned $100 of Party Poker Bonus
• I'll take it.

Temporal

• Terps win. Yay?
• Watched movie: Identity (entertaining)
• 2 blog entries and some excessive template editing
• Drank 1 beer (MGD)
• Ate 6 girl scout cookies (Thin Mints)
• Watched SNL

Inspirational

• "Every man I meet is my superior in some way. In that, I learn of him." -Emerson
• "If there is any one secret of success, it lies in the ability to get the other person's point of view and see things from that person's angle as well as from your own." - Henry Ford
• "Any fool can criticize, condemn and complain - and most fools do. But it takes character and self-control to be understanding and forgiving" - Dale Carnegie
• All 3 of those quotes are in Dale Carnegie's classic How to Win Friends & Influence People. I highly recommend the book to everyone that ever deals with humans.

Some hands

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Your Favorite Chump is MP2 with 6h, 6d.
3 folds, Your Favorite Chump raises, 3 folds, SB calls, BB 3-bets, Your Favorite Chump calls, SB calls.

Flop: (9 SB) 9s, 5s, 3d (4 players)
SB bets, BB raises, Your Favorite Chump folds, SB calls.

Turn: (6.50 BB) Td (3 players)
SB checks, BB checks.

River: (6.50 BB) Th (3 players)
SB bets, BB calls.

Final Pot: 8.50 BB
Results in white below:
SB has 5h Ac (two pair, tens and fives).
BB has Kh Ah (one pair, tens).
UTG+1 doesn't show.

Argh! I hate folding the best hand. As I folded, I thought to myself, "I hope that BB doesn't have AK." Dammit.

-------

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Your Favorite Chump is BB with As, Kc.
2 folds, UTG+2 calls, 1 fold, MP2 raises, 4 folds, Your Favorite Chump calls, UTG+2 calls.

Sometimes I'd reraise this, but I because I'm out of position and to disguise the strength of my hand.

Flop: (6.33 SB) 5d, 4h, 7d (3 players)
Your Favorite Chump checks, UTG+2 checks, MP2 bets, Your Favorite Chump raises, UTG+2 folds, MP2 calls.

I like this flop because it isn't likely to have helped the preflop raiser, and it looks like the kind of flop that could have helped a small blind. Unless the raiser has a pocket pair, I'm probably beating him, so the checkraise to force out the big blind is a play I like a lot.

Turn: (5.16 BB) Qc (2 players)
Your Favorite Chump checks, MP2 bets, Your Favorite Chump calls.

Ew, I don't like that Queen. He probably has AQ, AJ, or KQ, so I'm afraid he might have hit, but I'm reluctant to fold. So I call like a chump.

River: (7.16 BB) 3d (2 players)
Your Favorite Chump bets, MP2 calls.

This card completes a flush and a straight draw, so I take a shot at it.

Final Pot: 9.16 BB
Results in white below:
Your Favorite Chump has As Kc (high card, ace).
MP2 has Qh Ah (one pair, queens).
Outcome: MP2 wins 9.16 BB.

Crap. Love the way I played it until the turn. The river isn't bad either. Probably should have folded on the turn though. Crap.

-----
Guess who has what, and which I am:

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop:
1 fold, UTG+1 raises, 2 folds, MPB 3-bets, MP3 calls, 2 folds, SB calls, 1 fold, UTG+1 caps, MPB calls, MP3 calls, SB calls.

Flop: (17 SB) 4s, 7c, 3d (4 players)
SB checks, UTG+1 bets, MPB raises, MP3 calls, SB calls, UTG+1 3-bets, MPB calls, MP3 calls, SB calls.

Turn: (14.50 BB) 7h (4 players)
SB checks, UTG+1 bets, MPB raises, MP3 calls, SB folds, UTG+1 calls.

River: (20.50 BB) 6d (3 players)
UTG+1 checks, MPB bets, MP3 calls, UTG+1 calls.

Final Pot: 23.50 BB

Results in white below:
UTG+1 has Kc Kd (two pair, kings and sevens).
MPB has Ah As (two pair, aces and sevens).
MP3 has Qd Qh (two pair, queens and sevens).

Outcome: MPB wins 23.50 BB.

I had the Aces. Silly.
-----

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Your Favorite Chump is BB with Ad, Jh.
1 fold, UTG+1 raises, 6 folds, Your Favorite Chump calls.

Flop: (4.33 SB) Qd, 7c, Ks (2 players)
Your Favorite Chump bets, UTG+1 calls.

Turn: (3.16 BB) 4d (2 players)
Your Favorite Chump bets, UTG+1 calls.

River: (5.16 BB) Th (2 players)
Your Favorite Chump bets, UTG+1 raises, Your Favorite Chump 3-bets, UTG+1 caps, Your Favorite Chump calls.

Final Pot: 13.16 BB
Results in white below:

Your Favorite Chump has Ad Jh (straight, ace high).
UTG+1 has Kd Kh (three of a kind, kings).
Outcome: Your Favorite Chump wins 13.16 BB.

I bet the flop and turn hoping that the preflop raiser had an underpair or AJ or AT, but planning to fold to a raise. Whoops!

The Exit Interview

1:51pm

I have my exit interview coming up. They had sent me a survey to fill out. I wrote this on it:

There is widespread frustration with HR practices, at least at the lower and middle levels. Either the frustration or the practices should be addressed. However this could be difficult if voicing criticism of HR is perceived as likely to be damaging to an individual's reputation.

At their request, I sent a meeting invitation to our HR leader to "discuss my responses." See any conflicts of interest with an HR person conducting an exit interview in which I mention problems with HR? After 2 days, I got no response, so I sent another email yesterday. I still had no response, so I just went up to her office to see if the 2:30 meeting time worked for her. As I approach her door, I see her bent over trying to reach something underneath her desk. She started to reach down from sitting in the chair, but couldn't reach it, so she was half off the chair with her posterior sticking up directly toward the doorway, her shirt riding up so that half of her bare back is exposed. I tap on the door, and she awkwardly pops up and looks very embarrassed as she pulls her shirt back down. She mutters something about how she thought she had replied, and makes a show of confusedly checking her computer to see if she responded. She says 2:30 works fine, come back up in an hour. What a great start to this....

2:48pm

I just got out of it. It was very friendly, and pretty anticlimactic. I gave honest feedback about situations I've been in and things that I've seen and it was received in a polite and appreciative manner. She told me she wished she could do what I'm doing, and how a friend of hers did something similiar and it was very good for him.

People talk a lot of shit about her, but I've never had a problem with her personally. She's always been nice to me and I had a lot of fun at the golf outing where I shared a cart with her for 18 holes. I told her that there is widespread dissatisfaction with HR, and that I'm sure she knows of that at least somewhat. She said it always amuses her that people think she has more power than our Risk Leader, and I acknowledged that it might be better for risk managers to be able to use HR as a scapegoat. Its easier for a manager to say "HR won't let me promote you" than "I don't think you really deserve that."

I don't know what's really going on behind the scenes, and I really don't care. People working for huge corporations are always going to have issues with something, and they want to blame everyone other than themselves. Doesn't matter whose fault it is, what matters is what you do about it. You know the rules of the game, now put up or shut up.

Intelligent Design : Science :: Weezer : Music

Funny stuff.

It frustrates me when people exert political power to discredit good science; I hate it when irrationality wins out over clear thinking; and I hate it when truth is obscured. I also recognize that it is often in an individual's best interests for these things to happen, and perhaps it is or will be in my best interests for these things to happen, especially if I believe that most people are not capable of rational behavior. Maybe its worth fighting it, maybe not.

This reminds me that I was told recently by an intelligent person that evolution is basically a bunch of crap, and that he thinks it is ridiculous that people would object to disclaimers in school textbooks that say "Evolution is just a theory; Intelligent Design and Creationism are other theories..."

Since I actually respect this guy and realized that he had an open mind and had just been presented with bad information, I talked to him about it for quite a while and recommended several books. Hopefully we'll win him over to seeing the issue more clearly. Maybe its worth fighting for, maybe not.

Bring on the bashing from the Creationists and the Weezer fans.

Safety at work

What's Shabbos?

Saturday, Donny, is Shabbos, the Jewish day of rest. That means that I don't work, I don't get in a car, I don't ride in a car, I don't pick up the phone, I don't turn on the oven, and I sure as shit DONT FUCKING ROLL! SHOMER SHABBOS!

what to do

Brainstorming about my tendency to lose early in my live mid-limit hold'em sessions and win late...

Idea: Hunt at night.

My sessions usually start in the day or early evening and go into the night. I lose during the day and win later. Late at night there are more people drinking and more people who are stuck and trying to get even, so I have an easier time beating the loose drunks than the sober daytime regulars . Also, play tends to get shorthanded, which I consider a strength of mine, so maybe avoiding the full daytime tables is another reason to try this. Staying up all night was tough when I knew I had to go back to the 9 to 5 world, but that won't apply for a while.

Idea: Know everything about everyone

The longer I play, the more I know about the players in the game. Maybe my success at the end of sessions is because I've reached a tipping point of knowing enough about everyone and being able to use that information profitably. So the idea would be to find a game where its the same faces all the time so I don't have to spend the first 6 hours paying to learn about the strangers.

Idea: Centaurian Standard Time

Will Smith: Zed, don't you guys ever get any sleep around here?

Rip Torn: The twins keep us on Centaurian time, standard thirty-seven
hour day. Give it a few months. You'll get used to it... or you'll have a
psychotic episode.

- Men In Black

If I know I have to put in 6 or 10 hours before I start to really make money, maybe I should accept it and plan for marathon sessions. I haven't played longer than 12 hours in a row very often, and it gets to be a pretty weird feeling after a while.

Idea: Tight now, Loose later

I could just get super ultra tight for the first few hours. That way I'm only entering pots with by far the best of it, and I can focus on learning people instead of playing hands. I think that my style of play is usually best when I can be slightly on the loose side, but setting that up with several hours of extreme tightness could give me a very dangerous image. It could get pretty boring, but I think I have the discipline to pull it off. This means folding AJo, KQs, and 66 in early position in an unopened pot. It means folding QJs in middle position. It means folding AQs to most raises (which I often do anyway). It means mucking KTo or 98s on the button unless I have like 4 limpers ahead of me and the blinds look passive. It means looking down at AK in the big blind when there is an UTG raise and a late 3bet and tossing big slick into the muck. I'd make Rolf Slotboom proud.

Vegas II

When I spent 8 days at the Commerce Casino last year, I got pretty burnt out on poker after the fourth or fifth day playing 12 hours of poker, so I wanted to make sure I spent some time more recreationally than playing poker at stakes I consider serious. So I set out to Vegas with the intention of the trip being part business and part pleasure, and I kept that balance.

On the pleasure side, I finally met a bunch of guys that I've played fantasy basketball, baseball and football with for a few years now. Normally I don't like people, but I genuinely liked all of them. We saw Norm MacDonald's standup act at the House of Blues, which was a lot of fun. Norm's poker comment was that he had done the Celebrity Poker Challenge recently, and that the real challenge of it is identifying the other celebrities. Not bad. At some point in his ramblings, after assuring us he's not gay, he mentioned a man's "beautiful shaven balls" and "shiny cock."

Norm.

I spent an afternoon in a packed sports book watching basketball (yes, NCAA basketball), hit some buffets, and took some time to just walk around and check things out. Vegas is a weird place. You can walk down the street with an open container of alcohol, everyone is drunk all the time, and nobody thinks anything of it. Its like frat row with more money.

I was walking past Caesar's palace in the afternoon one day and watched a guy trying to light a cigarette and take a sip of his Corona at the same time. Suddenly he stopped and said to his buddy "smell those flowers and shit, man!"

Indeed they were some lovely and fragrant blossoms. Even in Sin City, while imbibing of 2 vices at the same time and standing outside of a palace built on gambling addiction, it is important to stop and smell the flowers and shit. It is also important to take a musical journey through one unforgettable voice: Clint Holmes.



The poker results were a bit frustrating and I basically broke even. I really only played 2 serious sessions, and continuing with a pattern I established for myself at the Commerce, I lost a lot of money early in the early hours of my sessions, held steady for a few more hours, and then got it all back towards the end. I'm sure I'll write more about the poker over the next few days.

Thanks to Erm for covering my room, and to Budden for hooking up the Norm tickets. Going to work today sucked, but knowing Friday is my last day made it much more tolerable.

Other Poker Sightings

I'm bored at work (4 more days), so here are other people I've seen in casinos that are somewhat famous, and pictures of them that I took myself.



Phil Helmuth - Saw him at the Taj in Atlantic City playing some tournament. He was better at poker than everyone in the room, and everyone in the entire history of the world, but for some reason he only had 1 chip. Poor Phil.


Daniel Negreanu - Saw him at the Taj in Atlantic City playing some tournament. He was very excited to see me.


Spiderman - He was playing a $10 and $20 blind No Limit Hold'em game at the Commerce Casino. What a goofy rich bastard.


James Woods - He was playing $20-40 Limit Hold'em at the Commerce, and looking very sharp.


Bill Clinton - Now that he is retired, he's taken up poker. I took this picture while he was in a $50-100 Limit Hold'em game at the Taj. His opponent had just raised on the river when the board paired. Not surprisingly, Bubba couldn't lay down his flopped nut flush, and he was only a little disappointed to see Queens full of Kings.


Anna Kournikova - Another retiree who couldn't resist the lure of the felt. After posing for this picture, she told me she likes playing Stud Hi-Lo for the split pot action.


Gandhi - He's a regular in the mid-limit hold'em games at the Mirage in Vegas. I took this after my AsKs beat his Ah8c on a [Ad Kc 3s] [5s] [8s] board. He told me I was a "lucky little fucker," then threw his cards at the dealer, then took off his shirt and stood on his chair berating me. He tips the cocktail waitresses $10 after every double bourbon he orders though, so they put up with his antics.

Vegas I

More on the trip later...


Poker Celeb Sightings:


Doyle Brunson - He was rolling through the Bellagio on his scooter, wearing a cowboy hat.


Phil Ivey - He was sitting in the big game at Bellagio.


Jennifer Harmon - She was also sitting in the big game at Bellagio.


Non-Poker Celeb Sightings:


Norm MacDonald - Saw his standup act Friday night. "I blew a dog for some bathtub gin."



Tommy Lee - He was strutting around the Mirage with a posse of freaks like him. I took this picture myself.

Vegas Baby! Vegas!

Is it possible to go to Las Vegas without referencing Swingers at least once?

I leave tomorrow, come back late Sunday, hopefully with a fistful of cash and a few good stories to write about.

Staying here. Silly.

Hungry?

I think I figured out how to post pictures. If I was successful, my choice of picture will be somewhat ironic. If I was unsuccessful, my choice of picture will be accurate, but you won't know that cause you won't be able to see it. And I'll be an idiot.



I'm going to Chipotle before I go Wizards-Lakers game tonight (with great seats, thanks to the Wolfe).

NBA v NCAA part 2

Continuing my thoughts about why I prefer the NBA to NCAA basketball, I want to address the common criticism, "NBA players don't play hard," and ways that it is true and false, and why the parts that are true don't bother me. Before I get to that though, another quick point about NBA culture.

Basketball players are much more visible to their audience than other sports. They aren't covered in pads and helmets like football players, and the fans and cameras are closer to them than baseball players. There are fewer player on the team, and fewer on the court at any given time, so the superstars are much more recognizable. You can see their bare arms and bare legs, and you know their faces. So if not being able to relate to young black men is going to turn you off to a game, basketball has a natural disadvantage, because the individuals are more visible, and this helps form a stronger and more identifiable culture.

It might be a lot easier for a casual fan to focus on only the game in other sports, without being distracted by Allen Iverson's tattoos, Ben Wallace's afro, Chris Anderson's hairdo, Doug Christie's wife, Scott Pollard's hideous visage, or Dirk Nowitzki's fascinating facial hair.

Now to the main issue.

It basically boils down to: the NBA season is really really long, so you have to know how to pace yourself. The teams that play in the NBA finals basically play the equivalent of an entire college basketball season in the playoffs alone. There is more intensity in every game of the college season because almost nobody can go that hard for 82 games and still be ready for the playoffs. But the intensity of NBA playoff basketball is every bit as good as any other sport.

So if what you care about is intensity in your sporting experience, the average college basketball season game might be better than your average NBA regular season game. But there are exceptions. Part of AI's popularity is because he's one of the smallest guys in the league but he play his heart out every night. His 6'0" 170lb body gets pounded guys 9 inches taller and 100 pounds heavier every game, and he keeps on coming. Ron Artest is the most feared defender in the NBA and a talented offensive player because he's so completely insane that he doesn't know how to give anything other than all he has. There are lots of players that you can count on to consistently give you a high level effort. And its fun to make fun of the players who never try at all.

Given the schedule, you have to make some trade-offs. Everyone knows that Shaq likes to take a few "injury" vacations during the regular season. After 12 years in the league, he knows his body well enjoy to figure out what he needs to do to be ready for a playoff run. Anytime you face a trade-off, the way you solve the problem is strategy. At the individual level, Shaq has a strategy.

You need strategy in the NBA, the game within the game played by the front office. You have to figure out how to have Shaq ready for the playoffs, and if you'd rather sacrifice a top seed for it. You have to figure out if its worth it to bring Alonzo Mourning in to back him up, and how much to play Zo in the meantime. You have to figure out who you want on the floor in the closing minutes of a playoff game, and that means sometimes you might want to risk losing a regular season game to test which players can take the heat later.

You have to figure out if a one-legged Chris Webber with a horrible monster contract is worth 3 role players with smaller contracts, and the implications for this year and for the future. You have to figure out if you want to trade for Antoine Walker less than 2 years after you ran him out of town, and you have to figure out if you want to pick up Gary Payton again.

I love Mark Cuban because he had a business strategy that made sense and a basketball strategy that may or may not make sense. He saw that the consumers (fans) of his product (Mavs basketball) enjoy a fast-paced offensively explosive team, so they invested in players that brought that kind of basketball to Dallas. After a few years of contending, but not reaching the championship level, they've had to make a few more strategic choices. They decided that defense was important after all, so they didn't pay aging defensive liability Steve Nash, brought in legit post presence Eric Dampier and gave that a shot. I don't know if it will work or not, but the games are fun to watch and its fascinating to see how the strategy will pay off.

You just don't need strategy in college ball. You have do have tactics, the gameplan. But mostly you just send the players out there twice a week to run the offense and play as hard as they can. 19 year olds don't run out of gas playing 32 minutes twice a week, and if your team isn't going to make the tournament, you can't trade your senior point guard to a contender for a freshman small forward and a letter of intent from a prized recruit big man. To be fair, there is some element of strategy in college recruiting, but I've always been turned off by recruiting. That's just me. But there is infinitely more strategy in building a pro team than in building a college team.

And then you get to one of my favorite part of the NBA - the playoff series. In a 7 game series, pro coaches get to play mind games that college coaches can't do. Bill Simmons is dead on when he blasts Rick Adleman (Sacramento) or Don Nelson (Dallas) for hilariously awful strategic coaching decisions.

A million years ago, when I loved baseball, I loved the format of the 3 or 4 game regular season series, and the 7 game playoff series. It is fun to see the adjustments managers make within games and between games. I can still almost enjoy the baseball playoffs because I love the strategy and can still appreciate the game.

If you are running an NBA team, you're playing a big poker game with basketball players instead of cards. NCAA basketball is more like a game of war: high card wins. (To be a bit more fair, and to use a more geeky poker analogy - the NBA is like a poker tournament where everyone starts with lots of chips and the blinds are small. It gives you the opportunity for lots of skillful postflop play, multiway pots, pushing someone off a draw, feeler bets, and all the other nuances that a skillful player loves. NCAA is more like the all-in crapshoot of a tournament where the blinds go up way too fast. There is some skill in reading hands, but mostly you just push in all you got and pray that it works out. And that can be fun and exhilarating, and if that's your thing, good for you.) College ball is a street fight - its all heart and little bit of muscle. NBA is like a title fight between two savvy heavyweight prize fighters, the sweet science. It is as much a chess match as it is a fistfight.

I love strategy. Thats why I loved game theory classes in college. That's why I love poker. I love the NBA because I get the strategy and basketball together.

I tried a new thing yesterday

I never started drinking coffee cause I didn't want to get addicted to caffeine, and I much prefer cold beverages to hot ones. I don't think I've ever had more than a sip of coffee in my life, although about 6 months ago I drank one of those bottled half-milk, half-coffee drinks from Starbucks that are served cold. But yesterday, for the first time in my life, I bought and drank a cup of hot coffee. I got some kind of caramel and whipped cream concoction from Caribu Coffee. It was pretty good.

NBA vs NCAA Basketball: A raging rant

Standing there in Atlanta, watching Maryland win the 2002 NCAA title was probably the greatest moment of my life. I'm not kidding. Juan was that kid who was always bumming change in our high school cafeteria, whose parents died of AIDS, and who couldn't get into Maryland because the SAT board invalidated his test score. Watching him overcome everything, put that team on his back and carry them to a championship on pure will was everything that has ever been great about sports. I cannot describe the emotion.

When I tell people that I love the NBA and prefer it to college basketball, most of them look at me like I'm insane. Bashing the NBA has been trendy for years now. "They are all criminals" or "it is all boring one on one moves" or "nobody cares because they're too rich" are the standard criticisms. People spit them out without even thinking about what they are saying.

A point I'll concede is that there is more emotion in a typical college game than in a typical NBA game, and if you watch sports for the emotion, than NCAA basketball is a good product for you. But that's not why I watch. I don't need to live vicariously through some 20 year old college kid, because I already did that it when I was in college, and it was great. But thats over now.

I watch now because I love basketball. The NBA features the world's greatest athletes playing my favorite game at the highest level. This is the best basketball there is.

Ron Artest attacking fans, rampant marijuana use, Atlanta Hawk, Donald Sterling, Latrell Sprewell. Does the NBA have problems? Absolutely, but they are no worse or better than any other major sport. Don't forget the massive hypocrisy of the NCAA: "student-athletes" generating massive revenues and never graduating, recruiting scandals, John Chaney's goon squad, boosters slipping kids cash, that drunken coach partying with coeds from another school, and all the other bullshit. The NBA and the NCAA both have problems. I don't mind the problems; I mind people who point out the other side's problems without acknowledging their own.

Are they a bunch of spoiled jackasses looking out only for themselves? There are lots of players like that, but there are some that aren't. Look at last year's champs, the Detroit Pistons. They played TEAM ball, and even took uber-jackass Rasheed Wallace and made him into a team player. And we all live and work in a world full of jackasses, and they are there in college ball too.

Maybe you can't relate to thugs or spoiled assholes like AI, C-Webb, T-Mac, The Big Aristotle, Melo, or King James. I'm a white guy from the suburbs, I can't relate to them either. But I can relate to a perfect bounce pass, splitting a double-team, and the pick-and-roll. I'm not watching to make a new friend, or to have a new role model, I want to see the best ballers in the world. And I'm not going to sit and judge someone based on how the media portrays them and fragmented information. I just want to see a sweet jumper.

NCAA and NBA both have good things and bad things about them. Decide for yourself how they stack up, but to me I choose the best basketball and put everything else aside. People that understand basketball, that love basketball, they appreciate the NBA game. They might prefer college for the emotion, for the tradition, for the different type of game you find there. They might dislike the way huge guaranteed contracts change a person, or the way free agency destroys team loyalty. But if you try to say that the NBA is inferior BASKETBALL, then you just don't get it. And that's fine.

If you love college basketball and its raw emotion, more power to you. I've loved it too. If you hate the NBA, its rich crybabies, Stephen A. Smith, and the vastly superior talent, keep on hating, but you're missing on some fun.

Just don't give me shit for loving it. Don't try to convince me I'm wrong. Don't rant on and on about why the NBA sucks. The more you act like your subjective preference is right and mine is wrong, the less I care about what you think.

Rock over London. Rock on Chicago. The NBA: I love this game.

my day off

I took the day off from work today, to use up a "personal business day," which unlike vacation days, I won't get paid out for when I leave. So I'll be attending to as much personal business as possible between now and March 25. Of note:

• I looked at the pokertracker stats, and I still got nothing I can use. Using January 1 as my good/bad cutoff, I'm going to showdown less often after seeing a flop (35.6% v 39.5%) and winning fewer showdowns (53.6% v 58.5%), which tells me yet again that I'm just not getting the cards. I wish I could find some stat that points out a hole I could plug and magically bring the winning back, but its just not there. I have to bear down and keep playing well, and the chips will start flowing my way again. Blah blah blah.
• I'm leaving for Vegas next Wednesday. I'll be out there for the 1st weekend of March Madness. Should be fun. I think this trip might be considered "personal business."
• I set up my silly new tracking spreadsheet today, and did some more projections. I've got 6 months worth of anticipated expenses plus a decent buffer tucked away safely in the bank (earning 2.6% with ING Direct's Orange Savings account, SILLY!), leaving me with a working bankroll of about $9,000. Not bad. I'd need to play four $3/6 tables for about 80 hours per month at my average winrate to meet my anticipated monthly expenses (assuming 35% income tax on my winnings). I'll probably try to play 20 hours of that per week, and another 5 to 10 hours of other games (shorthanded, NL, tournaments, etc).
• Today was the most profitable day of poker I've had since December 29. I played less than 3 hours. I started a new experiment called "Remember the latenight shorthanded stupids" which is off to a fine start.
• I had to take my car to the emissions testing place today. I was 6 days past my due date so I had to pay a $15 late fee. After they were done, the guy handed me a piece of paper and said "You're done.... you passed!" His tone was congratulatory. I wasn't really sweating the outcome, but I guess it was a big deal for him.
• Rakeback could be a valuable secondary poker income stream. Lots of online poker sites offer affiliate programs, some of those affiliates are paid monthly based on the rake (the fee the poker site takes out of every pot) each of their referrals generates. Some of those affiliates offer a percentage of that referral fee back to their players. I think I could clear a few hundred per month from that if I can set it up, but its hard to find the right situation. I want to keep playing at Party, and there are several other sites (Empire, PokerNOW, Coral/Eurobet) that play on the same server and with the same players as Party. But none of them let you deposit using Firepay. They use Neteller, which for some reason refuses business to anyone in Maryland, and several European payment services that I'm not sure I want to use. So unless I move, I have to find another way to deposit funds to one of those sites. I don't want to have to go to the bank or Western Union to send money, so my only other decent option is using a credit card, but MasterCard doesn't allow purchases at eGaming sites. Visa does, so I filled out a Visa application today. Its everywhere I want to be.
• Seeing the decent business these affiliates have going is making me wonder if I could make anything off cheap referral commissions for various products and services I use: poker sites, PokerTracker, ING Direct (let me know if you're interested, 2.6% savings!!!), Afrin, escort services, etc. I could put up some ads on this blog. With my 6 visitors per day I can't quite charge Superbowl prices. Erm suggested I file for unemployment. I suck.
• You might not believe this, but I read back over this post and removed several usages of parentheses.
• Adspar: parentheses :: Weezer : bad music

Curious George looks deeply at a hand

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (9 handed)
Preflop: Curious George is SB with 8c, 8d. CO posts a blind of $3. 2 folds, MP1 calls, 2 folds, CO (poster) checks, 1 fold, Curious George completes, BB checks.

My options here were calling or raising. So far only 1 person has voluntarily put money into the pot, and he limped, so there probably aren't any big hands out there. But 1 more bet to everyone probably won't drive anyone out except maybe the big blind, so I think calling is ok. This way I get out cheap if there are a lot of overcards, but I have potential for a deceptively strong hand. Long run, I don't think the call/raise decision matters much here.

Flop: (4 SB) 9s, 2h, 3s (4 players) Curious George bets.

While any of my 3 opponents could have a 9, there is a pretty good chance that I have the best hand right now. I'm first to act on this flop, so my decision is check or bet. Again, I think this is close.

If I check, it is with the intention of check-raising unless I see a good reason not to. Since this flop isn't likely to have helped anyone, the early position players are likely to check, but one of the later players will often throw in a bluff to try to steal the pot uncontested. This lets me checkraise and blast out anyone in between with forcing them to call a double-bet, or possibly take down the pot right there.

The downside of betting out is that a lot of these players are likely to "take a card off" here with almost any holding, and even though I'm a favorite over a lot of their likely holdings, my hand is definitely vulnerable to overcards, and I'm in bad position. So if I bet and get a caller or two, I don't get any information, and I won't know what to do with most turn cards.

However, I decided to bet out. Even though going for a checkraise was tempting, I didn't want to risk everyone checking around and giving all 3 of them a free card. Even if that free card didn't help them, I'd have a tough decision on the turn, and might have to check again and risk giving another free card. By betting out I put immediate pressure on them, and can gain information.

Flop: (4 SB) 9s, 2h, 3s (4 players) Curious George bets, BB folds, MP1 raises, CO folds, Curious George calls.

Someone raises and everyone has folded back to me. I have 3 options now, but I'm only thinking about a call or a reraise. I made a note earlier in the session that my opponent (who I'll call Daunte, since his screen name referred to the Viking's QB) check/called a King high flop that contained a flush draw with KTo, and then bet out on the turn with his top pair when the flush card didn't hit. This tells me that Daunte is a bit tricky and would be very capable of raising this hand with lots of hands I can beat, so I never considered folding. I conclude he likely has 2 overcards (but not AK, KQ, AQ which he would likely have raised) or maybe a pocket pair lower than mine (but not a set, which he'd likely slowplay). A2, A3, A4 are also possibilities.

If I 3bet, he'd almost certainly call 1 more small bet, which would create a pot big enough that he'd likely call a turn bet even if he didn't improve. Thinking that I'd prefer to avoid a river, I decided to just call Daunte's raise and see what the turn brought.


Turn: (4 BB) Kh (2 players)Curious George bets, MP1 folds.
Final Pot: 5 BB
Results below: No showdown. Curious George wins 5 BB.

While the overcard on the turn was scary, I decided to bet out. It was a combination of factors that led to the decision, but my biggest thought was the classic advice: "if you would call a bet anyway, you might as well bet yourself." While that concept applies mainly to the river, a simpler adage sealed the deal for me: "when in doubt, bet!" Daunte recognizes a tricky play when he sees it, and this is similar to the move I had seen him make. So I figured my betting out here would be a disorienting play after I had just called the flop raise, and it would put pressure on my opponent again. It did. He folded. I won.

I was pretty happy with myself at first, and made a note of this hand, but then I started to wonder about my play. If my opponent had 2 overcards, which was my primary read, I did an excellent job of recognizing his tricky flop raise for what it was, and then seizing back the momentum on the turn in spite of a threatening card for my hand. I took down a small pot before he had a chance to catch me.

But on the other hand, what if he had 66 or 77? If I had checked the turn, he probably would bet, and might bet again on the river if I checked to him, getting me one or 2 more big bets out of him. He might even keep betting with just the overcards even if he didn't hit the river. Maybe I cost myself here.

Writing up this analysis, I notice that I had very close decisions preflop, on the flop, and on the turn. If those decisions were truly close to even in terms of EV (expected value), then long run they don't particularly matter, and there isn't much point scrutinizing them.

But on the other hand, something about my play here leads me to something I'd like to investigate further. I played this hand very conservatively. While it looks aggressive and maybe even reckless, my bet out on the turn gives me a chance to fold if he raises, or take the pot down without a river card. Checking here would be risky.

I'm mired in a tough losing streak (good time to quit your job, Rockefeller) and now that I think about it, it feels like I haven't been seeing as many showdowns as I used to, and I've noticed that my [%ShowdownsWon] has looked rather high lately. I need to look back at my pokertracker stats and see if this is a hole in my game.

If I'm winning a higher percentage of showdowns, it means I'm playing more conservatively. This could have 2 related negative effects on my win rate - 1) if I'm folding the best hand even 1/6th of the time it is costing me money since pots are usually at least 7BBs, and 2.) if my opponents see that I'm not willing to take marginal hands to the river, they could pounce on this weakness and play more aggressively against me.

I'll do the research on this soon, but now I gotta go play basketball.