Leaving my job

Gotta get out - 2/1/05 - Realizing that I needed a change

The fine line between genius and stupidity - 2/28/05 - Q&A about my decision to quit my job

Response from coworkers - 3/1/05 - How people at work responded to the entry above

To do: - 3/7/05 - Unorganized plans for unemployment

The Exit Interview - 3/25/05 - Interview with the HR leader on my last day

Reading, Thinking, Writing... Being a Lazy Jackass - 6/17/05 - Is poker enough?

Opportunity cost - 6/24/05 - financial comparison of poker v job

Observations - 10/12/05 - wasting time

I tell you what - 10/15/05 - losing money and enjoying it

1/5/06 - not interested, thanks

Non-poker Friends

my life, in ASCII - my boy Walt, we went to high school and college together

Da Honger - I worked with Dan at GE

Max & Lynnette's Peace Corp Experience - Lynnette left GE to join the Peace Corps with her husband Max

Bezoar - Mario, another friend from high school and college

Maybe Manda - Amanda, a friend from college

MassMarket - Liam, a man who needs no introduction (because you'd rather not know)


If you are my friend and would like a link, post a comment here.

Gravity

did we botch that?

funny

Blogging: If minds had anuses, blogging would be what your mind would do when it had to take a dump.

-credit-


Another worthless dump tonight. Can't sleep.

Wow

This was posted on 2+2.

SoBeDude Pooh-Bah Reged: 01/10/03 Posts: 2356 Loc: South Beach!!!

100 years ago, he'd a shot ya! #2448234 - 05/21/05 04:10 PM

This is a story to tell my grandkids on day. There is this little asian (LA) guy at my 20-40 table here in Harrah's New Orleans. He's stuck a lot. He tries to pull an angle on me after getting cards and trying not to post behind the button. (floor comes over to settle it, he was called by the dealer) After he posts, I complete in the SB, the BB checks, then dealer scoops all the money in to the pot, THEN the LA says wait he wants to raise. I say no way, call the floor back. Floor says no raise. I flop top pair with my 97, where he 4bets me on the flop and bets the turn and river with his A2o no pair and I scoop the pot. About 4 hands later, he gets up and walks over to me and smashes his full beer over my head. While I'm sitting there in shock he's apprehended and arrested. I'm so lucky. only several small minor cuts on my ear and head, and one big lump. My head hurts and my neck is killing me. The EMT, while cleaning out my head says, "Hey be thankful, 100 years ago he'd a shot ya!" -Scott

Right on cue

For my last 300 hands, I've lost $260/hr.

I asked for that!



300 hands: 2 hours
1st hour: -$1,0000
2nd hour: +$500

Acceleration?

I'm setting a goal of averaging at least $50 per hour over the next few months. That is 2.0 to 2.5 BB/100 hands playing 2 tables of $10/20, which I think is especially achievable playing limited hours with good game selection.

Translation for non-poker people:
I usually play limit hold'em where bets and raises are fixed in increments of $10 or $20, as opposed to the no-limit you see on TV. I think that I can average a profit of 2 to 2.5 big bets (big bet in this case being $20) per 100 hands I play, and I can expect 100 to 130 hands per hour or so. A win rate of 2.5 would be very ambitious (anything over 1.5 is good; over 3.0 is expert) if I was playing 4 tables at the same time for lots of hours, but if I only play under very favorable circumstances (lots of bad players at my table and few good players) and only have to concentrate on making good decisions at 2 tables, I think it is a reasonable goal.


For my last ~70,000 hands played, I've averaged $34/hour.
For my last ~13,000 hands played, I've averaged $77/hour.
For my last ~800 hands played, I've averaged $132/hour.

That last stat is just a joke. Those are the real numbers, but I'm sure I could find plenty of 800 hand samples where I won or lost $200/hour. This is a very volatile game, so you really have to look at the long run. Even the 13,000 hand sample isn't really enough to draw any specific conclusions other than that I've have a good last 13,000 hands.

What I really should also do is set a goal of playing a certain number of hours per week. Then I could estimate my total earnings, net out estimated living expenses, and project my bankroll growth to set an estimated date to move up to $15/30.

Not tonight though. I'm getting up "early" tomorrow to meet some former coworkers on their lunchbreak, so I better get some sleep.

Online Poker Screen Names 3

When you sign up to play poker at an online casino, you pick a screen name that other players see when you sit at a table. Here are some names I've played against. Players in red are losers in games I've played; green are winners.

(Online Poker Screen Names 1)

(Online Poker Screen Names 2)



Sexual/Vulgarity:

• jizmaster - Pretty much speaks for itself

• AssPoker - Pretty much speaks for itself. The AssPoker won a lot when we played. It was a lovely experience.
  

• NutsKickerNL - Curiously this guy was playing limit, when I saw him, not no-limit (NL). Maybe that's why he was losing.
  

• ea8tshtndie - Had to throw that 8 in there because eatshitanddie, eatshitndie, and eatshtndie must have been taken.
  

• eatmynuts1 - Once again, resorting to adding numbers because some other genius beat you to the original idea.
  

Drugs:

• GAMBOL4CRACK - Is there any other reason to gambol?

• cokedupninja - This is just a great name. Bravo.

Messages:

• DontEatMeat - In response to his suggestion, I'll quote Reel Big Fish: "Maybe I'm a murderer, but I'm hungry and they're better off dead." Maybe some protein would help your results, buddy.
  

• spirituality - Allah helps me hit my flushes.

• Jeter_Loves_LilBoys - I didn't actually play with this guy, but I saw him sitting in a game and his message rang true to me. But I suspect most of you already knew that Jeter is a homosexual pedophile.
  

• lysbexic - This noble public servant has taken it upon himself to warn the world about the dangers of dyslexia.

Weird:

• ryanquirk - I assume the guy's name is Ryan Quirk. What kind of weird last name is Quirk?

Funny References:

• Pete Rose - Insert your favorite Pete Rose gambling joke.

• bobamilktea - I don't know if this is why he picked this name, but there is a woman who walks through the Commerce Casino selling that stuff. In her thick Asian accent, she yells "boba tea... milk tea... boba MILK tea!!" Mildly amusing but curiously memorable. Adverbially speaking.
  

• cunningstunts - I didn't play with this guy either, but I recognized the classic punchline: What is the difference between a circus and a cheerleading team? A circus is a bunch of cunning stunts...

• chewygotu - What a wookie!

In response to "chez"

In response to my recent gem of an entry "Fuck Comcast," someone left this gem of a comment:

Chez said...

seems to me a serious card player, with a sole income source being from an online activity, would have had an emergency plan in place.

hmmm, guess not.

failure = when a lack of preparation meets a roadblock while the person in question is involved in an idiotic plan

Wow, I have a heckler. I'’m big time now. Allow me to respond.


a serious card player

Is he talking about me?



sole income source being from an online activity, would have had an emergency plan in place.

1. While I prefer online play for the most part, I'm quite comfortable making the 3 hour drive and playing in Atlantic City for a few days until the internet connection is back up. I would have done this but I had a trip to the Boston area planned for last weekend.
2. I had about 4 offers from people in my area to let me use their computer to play if I wanted.
3. At any point I could have switched to Verizon DSL. In fact I still might do that. But in spite of their awful service in response to this situation, Comcast's product is a better overall value while everything is up and running.
4. I've been running pretty hot the last few weeks, so taking an unexpected week of vacation is well short of a financial emergency.

a lack of preparation

I set aside 6 months of living expenses before I quit my job. If I lose my bankroll, I have 6 months to find a job. If poker is outlawed in the United States, I could comfortably live off my bankroll for at least a year if I had to. That is enough preparation for me at this point in my life.

roadblock

A roadblock would be somehow losing my entire bankroll. A roadblock would be a nationwide ban on poker. A roadblock would be breaking both of my hands. Losing my internet connection for a few days is a pothole.



while the person in question is involved in an idiotic plan

My plan is not to waste 50 hours a week at a job I don't like if I don't have to. My plan is to play poker an average of 20~30 hours per week to support myself and to use the extra free time to read, write, and figure out what I want to do with my life. I'm definitely an idiot though, so maybe thats why this seems like a good plan to me.


failure = when a lack of preparation meets a roadblock while the person in question is involved in an idiotic plan

Here are some other quotes about failure:

"I can accept failure, but I can't accept not trying."
-Michael Jordan

"With every effort, I learned a lot. With every mistake and failure, not only mine, but of those around me, I learned what not to do."
-Mark Cuban

"Success is not final, failure is not fatal: it is the courage to continue that counts."
-Sir Winston Churchill

"The majority of men meet with failure because of their lack of persistence in creating new plans to take the place of those which fail."
-Napoleon Hill

"Far better it is to dare mighty things, to win glorious triumphs, even though checkered by failure, than to take rank with those poor spirits who neither enjoy much nor suffer much, because they live in the gray twilight that knows not victory nor defeat."
-Theodore Roosevelt


Anyway, thanks to Chez for stopping by and using the internet for its highest purpose - to anonymously insult strangers with no threat of negative consequences for rude behavior.

Pokernomics

I've always been fascinated with trying to figure out why people act the way they act. Over the last year or so, I've read a lot about evolutionary psychology and other approaches to behavioral sciences that have blown my mind again and again.

I've mentioned Freakonomics a few times recently on this blog. I liked the book because it was mainly about asking why people act the way they act, but I found it particularly interesting because it was written by an economist. I think that when I first studied economics in high school I saw it as an exciting way to analyze people's actions, but after 4 years of college study with endless plotting of utility functions, currency conversions and lifeless textbooks, I think I forgot why I liked it in the first place. I turned down a fellowship to study economics at Johns Hopkins because I couldn't remember why I wanted to study it. Freakonomics reminded me.

I recently learned that Steven Levitt is running a project to study poker, Freakonomics style. Check it out.

I just sent them the letter below. I listed this blog as a point of contact. I'm amused that if they check this out, my recent posts will mostly be profane rants about how much I hate Comcast. Maybe they'll skip past that to some of my quasi-intelligent discussions of more relevant subjects.

I've been in contact with Dana Chandler about the Pokernomics project. I'm very interested in this research, and I have a database of over 100,000 hands that I am willing to donate.

Every hand of poker is a series of risk/reward decisions and an often confusing combination of strategies in response to incentives. Adding to the confusion, existing poker literature has been authored by poker players who could have mixed motives in revealing their secrets. Maybe conventional wisdom about optimal strategies is wrong. It is easy to see why poker is a great target for Freakonomical study.

The decision to play poker professionally is also an interesting one. Reading the chapter of Freakonomics about drug dealers, I couldn't help but think what a similar analysis of the poker world would find. With poker skyrocketing in popularity, lots of bright young minds are quitting their jobs or dropping out of school to hit the felt. Why are they choosing poker? Why not the corporate world and academia? Will they be successful with poker? Do they live with their parents?

In addition to donating my hand histories, I'd like to offer myself as a resource for this project. Working in the corporate world, I saw how big projects are always taking advantage of contributions from loosely labeled "subject matter experts." I'm reluctant to call myself a professional poker player, but I've been scratching a living off of poker winnings since I quit my job in March of this year. I used to be a student of economics (I completed my undergrad with a double degree in Finance and Economics and was offered a fellowship to the Economics Ph.D. program at the Johns Hopkins University), so I'd love any opportunity to contribute to a project that combines my academic field with my recently adopted profession.

I see in the FAQ that the project is fully staffed, but if I there is something I can offer - insights into the poker world, specific hand analysis, ideas for investigation, my own poker stories or anything else, please feel free to contact me.

ugh

I'm back. I hate Comcast.

Fuck Comcast

I can't believe I actually said something nice about Comcast recently. I take it all back. My internet and cable have been out since Saturday (7/2) morning and won't be back before next Tuesday (7/12) at the earliest.

On Saturday I called and they told me it was a temporary outage in my area that would be fixed in a few hours. It seemed believable since the same thing had happened the weekend before. Sunday morning it was still out, so I called again and after 15 minutes on the phone they couldn't figure out what was wrong and concluded they'd need to send someone out. Oh yeah and the earliest available date was a week away. Great, I'm an internet poker player without an internet connection for over a week. They told me I could maybe call back and if someone cancelled an appointment maybe I could move mine earlier.

So Tuesday I called and they told me they had an opening the next day. PRAISE ALLAH! Half an hour after the scheduled time, nobody had shown up. So I called them again. Every call takes at least 10 minutes before I speak to a person, by the way. "We have no record of an appointment being scheduled for today." WHAT?? "This shows that you called to inquire, but no appointment was actually made. Next Wednesday (7/13) is the earliest available time."

Wow. And this brief summary doesn't include all the various transfers between people over the phone and bizarre stories some of them made up. Amazingly bad customer service.

The only real internet and TV alternatives are Verizon DLS and Direct TV, but Comcast really does have the best deal. So I'm just bending over and waiting til Wednesday.

The value of a decision: to play or not to play

For various reasons, I found myself exhausted at 10pm. I had wanted to play tonight, but figured sleeping was a better decision than playing while tired. So I turned off the lights and laid down, unsure if I was taking a nap or going to bed. I knew I didn't want to be totally back on a real-world schedule, so I was leaning towards nap. But I sure as hell wasn't going to set an alarm had no reason to suspect I'd wake up before morning. I woke up around 3am and had to make a tough decision between getting up and playing for a while or rolling over to go back to sleep.

A funny thing about playing poker is that it creates a distorted picture of the value of those kinds of decisions. Theoretically, I should look at my long term average hourly earn rate, R, and how many hours I'm going to play, H, and multiply those 2 numbers to figure out the expected value of playing. H x R = EV. But variance is high in this game, so the actual result is often in a very different ballpark than the H x R projection.

So here's a common scenario. I decline an invitation to go out on a Saturday night, opting to stay in and take advantage of the juicy weekend action on Party Poker. I have a rough night at the tables: big pairs get cracked, miss all my flush draws, flop set under set 3 times. When my friends drunkenly call me at 3:31am and ask how my evening went, I know my excel sheet says I've lost $389 but I just mutter "Eh, not great... what did I miss?"

Our brains are built to make results-based associations. If I eat some berries and 30 minutes later I throw up, I associate the result of vomiting with eating the berries. I have an abstract understanding that I should be counting my imaginary EV dollars to determine how much the decision to stay in was worth, but its hard not to think that going out drinking would have been a $389 profit. I'm not going to eat those bastard berries any more.

Luckily tonight it went the other way. Instead of going back to sleep I got up and played, winning $884, far above the most generous estimates of my H x R. So what was the value of the decision?

DMB

I caught the Dave Matthews Band concert last night in Manassas, VA. This was the 15th time I've seen them. I've been a huge fan ever since my mother randomly gave me their album "Crash" as a gift in 1998. I try to avoid mainstream pop culture, so I've always kind of resented that my favorite band is so hugely popular among the teeny boppers and frat boys, but I guess this a rare incident of the dull masses having good taste.

I used to be pretty fanatical about collecting recordings of their live shows, which they generously allow fans to tape. My collection includes almost 300 shows from 1991 to 2002. I started collecting them my freshman year of college, and early on I had a weird ability to remember setlists for a given show date. Because of my setlist fetish, when I started going to their concerts I would write down the set as they played it. So now I have 15 scraps of paper with a bunch of songs scribbled on them.

Feel free to congratulate me on these tremendous accomplishments.

I enjoyed last night's show. Most concerts feed off of crowd energy though, and playing 10 new songs in an 18 song set isn't going to have the crowd into it as much as a set full of road-tested classics. So this wasn't one of my favorite of their shows, but I liked hearing their live versions of the new material, and was glad they played Warehouse.

They brought out a guest performer, Robert Randolph, who I had never heard of. But this guy laid down some nasty pedal steel guitar and tore the house down. The 3 songs he played with the boys at the end of the night were definitely the highlights.

Last night's setlist:

Sunday Jun 26 2005
Nissan Pavilion at Stone Ridge

Dream Girl
One Sweet World
Don’t Drink the Water
Hunger For The Great Light
Say Goodbye
Too Much
Out Of My Hands
Grey Street
Steady As We Go
Hello Again
You Might Die Trying
Where Are You Going
Warehouse
Stolen Away On 55th & 3rd
Stand Up *
Louisiana Bayou *

__________________

American Baby
All Along The Watchtower *


* - featuring guest performer Robert Randolph

Punk Kids!

Around 5pm today, I was sitting on my bed reading Freakonomics (more on this later) when I noticed a red SUV pull into the parking spot next to my car and two kids get out. Something about them immediately seemed suspicious so I kept my eye on them.

They got out and started unwrapping something in front of their car, and dropping the wrappers on the ground. They then disappeared behind a large pine tree, but I could see they were behind there smoking something and nervously laughing. I was hoping they just were back there smoking cigarettes or pot or something relatively harmless, but they came back to the car a few minutes later making no attempt to conceal their smoking.

As they continued to unwrap something and talk about it, I had the idea to take some pictures. It was hard getting a good shot through my windows and screens, but I got a good one of the license plate and some blurry ones of the kids.

I relaxed as they finally pulled out, but was startled when I heard loud crackling of small fireworks from the direction they drove off. I went out and looked around, and saw (and smelled) the discharged fireworks on the road and the wrappers on the ground near where they were parked.

I've been debating what, if anything, I should do about the incident.

On the one hand I'm a little bit pissed that they decided that in front of my house was a good place to fuck around with explosives. They could have damaged my property, and worse there are some little children that live around here. So that makes me think I should report this and make sure the kids get a smack on the wrist.

On the other hand, they clearly picked this area cause it didn't seem like anyone was around, so they weren't likely to hurt anyone other than themselves. Its close to the 4th of July so they were probably just testing these things one time so they'd know how to use them next week. It doesn't seem like its worth it to get them in trouble, especially if they find out it was me that made the complaint and then they decide to come back and key my car or egg my house or something.

I've decided I'm just going to keep my eyes open for them. If they come back, I'll cut them off and nicely suggest they go somewhere else to do whatever they came here to do.

Cartesian Pokery

My total poker income is the sum of 2 categories: poker wins and other. The first category is self-explanatory. The second category is income from various promotions that online sites use to attract players, net of poker-related expenses (travel and lodging for casino play).

Since I play mostly online, "other income" is a fairly consistent stream, linearly correlated to the number of hands I play. It is nice to have that stability in an otherwise highly volatile business.

The graph below is the cumulative sum of each category over the 14 weeks I've been doing this.




Observations/Analysis:

• As recently as week 11, I'd made less playing than I made from other.
• Almost 70% of my total poker winnings have come in the last 3 weeks. I'm on a huge upswing right now.
• Overall, I've made as much in the last 3 weeks as I did in the first 11. Again, huge upswing.
  
• Weeks 7 through 9 were brutal. Sooner or later I'll have another downswing like that. Sooner or later I'll have downswings much worse than that.
  
• In week 10 I switched from playing 4 tables of $5/10 to 2 tables of $10/20. You can see that the poker wins immediately skyrocketed while the growth of other income modestly declined as a result of playing fewer total hands. I'm not planning to add a 3rd table any time soon. I might move up to $15/30 soon though.
• Generally its just good to see a positive trend. I don't expect to continue crushing the games like I have the last few weeks, but hopefully my long term trend won't look as flat as the first 9 weeks here.
  

Batherings

• My cable went out this morning for a few hours. I called Comcast to report the outage, and I actually talked to a friendly and professional representative. I've long been vocally anti-Comcast, but between On Demand, the Comcastle, and my first ever good encounter with a Comcast employee, I might be softening my nay-saying stance.

• Plumbing problems suck.

• In spite of my various predictions (Mavs, Rockets, Heat, etc) if I had to bet all my money I would have put it on the Spurs at any point in the season or postseason. I predict with my heart, but bet with my head.

  In the words of Dr. Farthing, "Hindsight is 20/20 my friend!"

• If you play limit hold'em and want to improve your game dramatically, read Small Stakes Hold'em by Ed Miller immediately. That and Hold'em Poker for Advanced Players are the best poker strategy books I've ever read.

• After reading this, Kira asked her mother, a native speaker of Tagalog, if there is a word in that language that sounds like "Betty" and means "drunk." Ma said she didn't know of any, but maybe it is some slang she doesn't know. She also pointed out that "Kira" means "gullible" in Tagalog.

Opportunity cost

In 13 weeks, I've made about $4,200 less playing poker than I would have earned from the job I quit. That extrapolates to a $17,000 annual paycut. The benefits aren't as good either, but what can you expect from flexible part-time work?

If you add back the 2 weeks vacation I got paid out, and consider the expenses I'm saving on commuting and lunches out in Bethesda, the financial difference looks much better. Plus I got a nice tax refund this year, so with that buffer I haven't really felt any pains in the wallet at all.

As a return on that $4,200 investment, I honestly expect my earn rate over the next 13 weeks can completely dwarf what I've done so far. My understanding of the game is growing every day, I feel like I'm playing the best poker I've ever played, and my results are starting to show it. Or maybe I'm just catching a good run of cards and in the long run I'll struggle to break even. It has been fun either way.

Its 11:20am, I guess I should go to bed.

Beautiful

"I think we can all agree that it is important for students to hear multiple viewpoints so they can choose for themselves the theory that makes the most sense to them."

Well done.

playing online poker for a living

pros

• don't answer to anyone:
  
• this is all on me
  
• no boss
  
• no corporate interests or politics
  
• no pants
• no annoying coworkers (no, not you)
  
• obvious and immediate correlation between effort and reward
  
• no alarm clocks
  
• my own schedule
  
• sleep when i want
  
• take days off when i want
  
• life is just a game
  
• don't have to take anything seriously
• "work" is fun
• easy money
• challenge
• matching wits
• opportunity for advancement - moving up limits
• applying skills to new areas - learning new games
  

cons

• "so what do you do?"
• parents don't like it
• people generally look down on gambling
  
• why did i bother with college?
  
• sketchy healthcare coverage
• no 401k, pension
  
• no sick leave
  
• life is a just game
• hard to take pride in outplaying a drunk or a rich moron
  
• greater good?
  
• future?
• what if the games dry up?
• huge hole in my resume
  
• downswings
• pyschological challenges
• financial challenges
  

input?

Wow.

I just heard a commercial on the radio that started out with a bunch of guys talking about how their buddy can't join them on the trip to Las Vegas this weekend because he's stuck with babysitting duty. They go on to make fun of him saying that the kid doesn't even look like him, that a smart guy with an MBA ought to realize that the kid probably isn't his. Just as I'm wondering where the hell the commercial is going, the ad kicks in for at-home paternity testing by mail. Thank god for science.

DOES YOUR SON LOOK SUSPICIOUSLY LIKE THE MAILMAN? ARE YOU STUCK AT HOME BABYSITTING HIM, KNOWING YOUR FRIENDS ARE LAUGHING AT YOU AS THEY SNORT COCAINE OFF A STRIPPER'S ASS IN VEGAS?

DON'T LET THIS HAPPEN TO YOU!! WITH OUR FAST PRIVATE TESTING, YOU'LL HAVE YOUR ANSWER IN NO TIME.

DON'T LET THAT BITCH MAKE A CUCKOLD OF YOU! CALL US TODAY!!

Raising the river with the worst possible hand

Party Poker 10/20 Hold'em (9 handed)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with 2♥2♣
3 folds, MP2 calls, Hero calls, CO calls, Button calls, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: (6 SB) 5♦, 5♥, 4♥(6 players)
SB checks, BB checks, MP2 checks, Hero bets, CO folds, Button folds, SB folds, BB folds, MP2 calls.

Turn: (4 BB) 6♦ (2 players)
MP2 checks, Hero bets, MP2 calls.

River: (6 BB) 6♠ (2 players)
MP2 bets, Hero raises, MP2 folds.

Final Pot: 9 BB


Normally I don't put any more money in the pot without flopping my set, but in this hand I bet the flop and turn because I thought it was highly likely I had the best hand. When MP2 called the turn, I figured he probably had overcards and a heart flush draw, but not a good flush draw because he probably would have bet the flop. So he probably had something like T♥8♥. Although a hand like 3♥3♣ or 4♣3♣ also seemed possible.

The river seemed like the worst possible card for my hand, since now I'm playing the board. But when he bet out it seemed like a desperate bluff attempt consistent with a busted heart draw or a pair of 3s. So I took a chance and raised. If he had called my raise, he would have won the pot with any hand except for 43, 33, 42, and 22. Those hands would have won half of it.

I don't know if it was smart, but this bluff won me $177.

At least I'm building home equity?

I just spent the last hour doing the closest I'll come to manual labor. It was somewhat enjoyable, but now my lower back hurts from being bent over for so long.

I've had some water leaking problems in my house, and concluded that my bathtub/shower needs to be recaulked. It took longer than I thought it would to scrape the old caulk off, but it was definitely damaged in several places and there was dampness seeping behind it.

So now the old nasty caulk is off. I'll swing by the Home Depot later and pick up some gunk to finish the job. Hopefully the new seal will solve my leakage problems. I'm not really cut out for home ownership.

I love this picture

Reading, Thinking, Writing... Being a Lazy Jackass.

This is what happens when I see a simple poker winrate projection...

I was reading Luke's latest, when I came to this quote:

In theory, playing 12 $2-$4 tables, beating each table for a bet per hour, and receiving a partial rake rebate would yield more than $250 thousand at 8 hours per day. A quarter of a million dollars at $2-$4 is actually possible!

Something about that math didn't add up to me as I thought about it, so I busted out the excel and crunched some numbers. I was about to ask him what kind of crazy rake rebate deal he had, when I realized what I was missing. When I hear "8 hours per day" I think 40 hours per week.

He meant 8 hours every single day. I can't do that. I know there are tons of people out there who work more than 56 hours every week, but I don't think I could ever be one of them. I can't think of any one thing I'd be willing to devote that much time to.

Coming out of college with a double degree in finance and economics and strong math skills, I could have gone for an investment banking gig. I knew I could make a ton of money that way, and my friends who went that route are making huge 6-figure salaries at age 25. I saw that potential, but I didn't want to slave through the 80 hour work weeks they make the entry-level analysts put in.

Hell, it got to the point where 40 hour weeks at GE was too much to bear.

These days I'm fully aware that playing poker for more hours is the most important thing I can do to build my bankroll, thereby allowing me to move up to higher limits, thereby allowing me to make more money. But I struggle to put in more than 30 hours per week.

Clearly wealth accumulation isn't something I've shown a willingness to invest much time in. Which is not quite the same as saying I wouldn't be willing to invest a great deal of time in something that would lead to wealth, just that I'm not willing to work simply for the sake of wealth. We'll get back to that point.

But for now, if not just for money, then what would I invest tons of time in?

Well, I'm pretty sure that I'd work 18 hours a day to ensure my own survival. And if I have my own family some day, I assume I'd include their survival as a higher priority than my own.

But that's really all I can think of. I'm too selfish to include any kind of altruistic causes that help people outside my small circle. God bless the soldiers and the Peace Corps and teachers and law enforcement, cause I sure can't do what they do.

Before you write me off as 100% worthless and lazy, note that so far what I'm writing about is devoting myself extensively to any ONE thing. I couldn't dissect balance sheets or fight crime for 80 hours per week. But I could probably do those both for 8 hours per week, and throw in 7 or 8 other things too.

Ok, maybe not all in the same week. I am 90% worthless and lazy. I have a short attention span; spending too long on any one thing drains my energy.

I guess the point here is that I want to enjoy my time, not just slave miserably towards a goal. My means are just as important to me, if not more important than the ends. Some people enjoy poker enough to play 8 hours every single day. It turns out I enjoy it enough to fill about 30 hours per week, and it turns out that amount of play meets my survival needs. I'm very lucky in that regard.

For some people, meeting survival needs isn't enough, and they don't mind working 80 hours a week at jobs they dislike if they know they'll eventually have more money. Some people trudge through the hours knowing their work is serving a higher cause. Some people never stop moving because they don't know how.

I got a job after college because I wanted to live on my own instead of having to mooch off my parents. I liked the job more than I liked the other idea. After a few years I found a solution I liked better and I started playing online poker in my underwear in the house I bought instead of sitting in a cubicle in business casual working for the man.

That was an improvement, and now I think I can do even better. I know myself, what I'm capable of, what my limitations are. I have a better idea of what I want. I don't want to put more time into poker, because I want to spend some more time on other things.

When I was working 40 hours per week, I was spending about 10 hobby hours on poker. Both those time chunks had direction. These days I'm putting 40 work hours into poker (30 playing, plus I probably spend 10 hours reading or analyzing my game), but I haven't picked up something else to fill those 10 hobby hours. Nothing with direction anyway. I've enjoyed a couple months of filling that time with diversions - movies, video games, etc - but recently I've felt the urge to start something with a purpose.

I love writing this blog. I'll sit down and start typing and suddenly an hour has gone by. I like it when I can entertain, inspire, amuse, or mostly just annoy people with my ideas and the way I express them. I look forward to hearing about people's reactions, and I'm always on the lookout for new material to write about. I don't mind making an ass of myself with this kind of public introspection, and I know that people find it interesting.

I'm going to start writing something else. I'm not exactly sure what form it will take yet, or if it will ever be worth anything to anyone else. But I have some ideas that I know I'll enjoy spending some time developing. Those are the kind of time investments I'm willing to make.

Help!

3pm

Say you're buying movie tickets online. Say you get a window that looks like this:



How long are you supposed to actually wait? Its been about 8 minutes now...

3:09pm

I gave up and closed the window. I went back and ordered again. This time I got a confirmation right away. Is there any chance I won't be charged twice? I better check my email and see if I got 2 confirmations...

3:15pm

Only one confirmation, but wow, I get a lot of spam email for penis help - Viagra, Cialis, Levitra.

These are some of the subject lines of the spam I get:

• Re: A clean the confabulate
• Of send my marrowbone
• Or go he malnutrition victory
• her need he arugment indisposition

Aside from the advertisements for their drugs, the bodies of the emails also contained the following messages:

• It got late, and Harlan, Anton, Brian and the many thousands of krill took off, December, there is a complete sentence (Season's Greetings from the
• it's a straight line." In the words of Karin Foreman, "That and innovative ideas for the future. Total Recall is one movie
• Football Team, and so on. At least Brown has interesting, if wacky, ideas. Although some electronic galleries will probably develop their
• to take my honey, I may kill him." Jupiter was much displeased, ground and limped away, howling dreadfully. His yelling soon

I assume that these subject lines are randomly selected words and that the messages are snippets automatically picked out of text from websites or something, all in an effort to beat spam-blockers. I'm glad our top minds are working for shady penis-help marketers.

Todd Heap

What up

Trip Recap

BULLET I suppose the trip was a modest success, financially. I had a great 3-hour session in a $10/20 game at the Taj the night I arrived, and the rest of my play basically evened out. Not a hugely profitable venture, but a nice change of pace.

BULLET After a 14 hour session on Friday I decided to head home Saturday instead of playing again. I didn't want to risk burnout after 3 long days of playing. Even though I'm sure the Saturday action was great, I'm happy with my decision.

BULLET For the first 2.5 days of play, I had very good feel for my tables. More than ever before, I really had a good idea what my opponents held and how they'd act. But towards the end of my session on Friday, a guy sat down who completely altered the dynamic of the table, and it really threw my game off. There had been one maniac at the table who played any 2 cards to the river almost every hand. He had been amazingly lucky and had a very large stack of chips in front of him. But I had been sitting next to him for several hours and was doing a pretty good job of reading him in spite of his wildness. The new guy was a preflop maniac, playing any 2 cards, often for a raise, but he played fairly well postflop. They were sitting next to each other and their antics pretty much put the whole table on tilt. With one exception, I did a miserable job of adjusting my game. Hopefully with more experience, I'll know how to adjust properly to changing conditions.

BULLET I mentioned one exception, which was a play I made shortly after the new guy (NG) joined the table. This was certainly the greatest poker play I've ever made. We'll pick up the action on the turn, where the pot was already very large. I held 98 (suits irrelevant) on the button, and after several checks the original maniac (OM) bet with the board showing K978. I knew him well enough to know that he'd try to checkraise any hand that beat me, and the pot was huge, so I raised hoping to force out the 3 people acting after me. 2 of them folded, and then NG 3-bet. He hadn't been at the table long enough to know that OM was a complete moron, and he had heard others at the table talking about how tight I was, so I knew his check/3-bet meant my hand was worse than his. At worst he had to have a set, more likely a straight, and probably JT for the nut straight. But after OM called, I had to call 1 more bet and hope for a miracle on the river. I expected any miracle would have to take the form of an 8 or 9, but the river was a J, which seemed like a horrible card for me until NG checked. He looked genuinely concerned about the Jack. Then OM bet again. At this point I it was obvious to me that NG had the best hand and I had the 2nd best hand. OM betting was an blessing, because I realized that if I raised, NG would have to assume I have at least a T for a straight and he might fold. With the pot so large I figured it was worth a shot, so I raised and looked at NG and made a sheepish "I'm sorry" face. NG agonized and finally folded. OM called my raise, and NG immediately informed OM that I had a straight. When I turned over my hand an announced 2-pair I think he might have thrown up in his mouth. "JUST TWO PAIR???! I FOLDED 5-6!!! OH MY GOD!" I quietly stacked the $425 pot.

BULLET Asian casino employees have some cool names:

secondary bullet He
secondary bullet Trung
secondary bullet Nho
secondary bullet Thang
secondary bullet Phat
secondary bullet Supa

It makes me wonder if any American name sound like cool words somewhere in Asia...

secondary bullet Ron is the Vietnamese word for "pudding"
secondary bullet Betty is a slang term for a state of inebriation in Tagalog
secondary bullet Charlie sounds kinda like "shitbird" in Korean
secondary bullet Your average Cambodian would find the name Ralph highly amusing, but couldn't really explain why. Actually that might be universal.
secondary bullet Tony sounds like the Cantonese word for "girth," especially with that Hong Kong accent.

BULLET I played a bit of the $15/30 game at the Taj, and I really felt the difference that the 2/3 blind structure makes. I've got much more experience with 1/2 or 1/3, and the $10 small blind really made the game feel a lot different than what I'm used to. I don't remember feeling that way in my occassional shots at Party's $15/30 game, so that makes me think I've come a long way since my last try at that game.

Atlantic City

I'm taking a 4 day trip to AC for some live action. These will be my first casino sessions since I quit my job, and a much needed change of pace. I don't know of any 2-7 triple draw lowball available up there (my new favorite game), so I'll have to settle for the mid-limit hold'em action.

I'll be back home Monday after I go to the doctor to see if there is any tendon damage in my finger.

11 weeks now

I've tracked 11 weeks (Wed to Tues) now.

9 out of 11 weeks have been wins.
7 out of 11 weeks I made less than $500.
3 out of 11 weeks I made more than $1,000. 2 of those I made more than $1,500.

My worst week was a $705 loss. I followed it with a $1,507 win.

My worst day was April 3. I lost $965.
My best day was April 17. I won $560.

My worst single session was losing $727 in two hours on May 27, playing four $5/10 full tables.
My best single session was $604 in one hour on May 27, playing two $10/20 full tables.
May 27 was a long day.

My average week is 25 hours of play and $480 of income. If I did that for 50 weeks I'd make about $24,000. If I kept the same earn rate and put in 40 hours instead of 25, I'd make about $38,000. Nobody would mistake these numbers for evidence of great success.

Discipline is my biggest problem. I rarely play my "A-game" for an entire session and I don't put in very many hours. I quit too soon when I'm ahead, and I play too long when I'm behind. I let emotion cloud my judgment in big hands. I don't know a lot of odds as well as I should. I am horrible at multi-table tournaments mostly because I don't have enough patience.

I've started posting on the 2+2 forums, and it has already helped my thinking about the game, beyond what simply reading them had done for me. I've felt improvement in my game. Game selection is a growing strength. I'm getting more effective at using statistics and other information to find situations where I have a greater advantage. I've read and reread a few excellent poker books, and tried some new games.

I'm making ends meet, and enjoying this time. I don't think I'll want to be a professional poker player in 10 years (considering myself a pro now seems like a stretch), but I don't think I'll be getting a job any time soon.

I suck

So to clear the 1,050 raked hands I'd need to earn PartyPoker's $150 bonus this month I decided to 4-table the $3/6 game. I might as well have just banged my head against a wall for 7 hours.

7 hours
1873 hands (1050 of which qualified as "raked hands")
$68.71 profit, including the bonus

I'm filling out an application at Taco Bell tomorrow.

Hyperbole? Probably not...

This is the most amazing hand of poker I've ever played.


Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (8 handed)

Preflop: Hero is CO with Kc, Ad. MP2 posts a blind of $3.
2 folds, MP1 calls, MP2 (poster) checks, Hero raises, 1 fold, BB calls, MP1 calls, MP2 3-bets, Hero caps, BB folds, MP1 calls, MP2 folds.

Flop: (13.33 SB) 5s, 3d, Qc (3 players)
MP1 checks, Hero bets, MP1 folds.

Final Pot: 7.16 BB


I almost just called the 3-bet, but said to myself "I guess I'll cap and maybe someone will fold." And then I laughed, because the idea of someone folding was preposterous. And then 2 people folded.

Has anyone ever seen a preflop limp(check)-3bet-fold??

And then MP1 folds the flop getting over 14 to 1 on the call. Astonishing.

In response to kiraness

I feel the need to address this comment from my recent post, "Buncha spoiled babies."

kiraness said...

who's everyone, weirdo? seems like you get more feedback with poker related biznass than much else. makes sense. it's the only subject you can effectively trick your audience into believing that you've got some working knowledge base. i agree with brian, your hike blogs are yawn inspiring. .... i'm surprised more comments aren't blaring with incredulity that you of fair skin actually ventured out into the daylight.

First of all, speaking of Brian, I know of at least 3 gentlemen with that name who read this and comment. Usually I can distinguish which one is Brian "Bwian" A. in New Zealand, but I never know if its Brian P. from my fantasy leagues or Brian my sister's friend. Or maybe it is Orioles star Brian Roberts. Oooh or figure skater Brian Boitano!

But getting back your point, kiraness, maybe this is hard for your feeble little mind to comprehend, but people do find ways to communicate with me other than through the comments on this blog. And lately, a lot of the feedback I've gotten by phone, email, IM, telegraph, carrier pigeon* and in person has been complaining about too much poker content.

What you, Bwian, Brian, Brian, Brian, Brian, and all my other clown/readers need to realize is that I write this 98.3% for my own enjoyment and amusement and 5.1% for any other reason. But here I am, several times a week giving it 103.4% effort.

That's a lot of effort.

So I'll write about poker if I feel like writing about poker. I'll write about hikes and post a bunch of boring pictures if I want to post boring pictures. If you don't like it, YOU CAN GO TO HELL!!

So there...



...yeah...



...OK FINE, WHO AM I KIDDING?!

I can't keep up this ruse anymore. I love you all. Its all for you!! You aren't clown/readers!! I need your approval, kiraness. I need to entertain Brian with poker stories, Bwian with movie reviews, and Brian with sports commentary. I'm just a pale boy who hardly ever goes outside! I need love! LOVE ME!!

LOVE ME!!!!!



* - Yes, I realize that "carrier pigeon" is completely hackneyed as an example of an obscure communication channel. I might as well have just said "smoke signals" and flushed all my self-respect down the toilet. Luckily the rest of this entry in no way compromises my self-respect. My self-respect is 103.4% intact.

More from that hike

The "Billy Goat Trail" of Great Falls starts off on an elevated area above the Potomac River, and offers some great views.



When we got to a point overlooking this, I snapped this picture and

we decided we wanted to climb down and explore that far ridge. The third picture in my previous post is from the same point, but aimed a bit more to the right. Luckily there was an easy path down a little bit ahead on the trail. When we got down, I looked back up at the spot from which I had taken the picture 10 minutes earlier.



Once we were down that far, we wanted to get across the ridge to the edge of the Potomac river, but we had to cross some pretty nasty terrain to get there. (If you look at the top right of the snapped picture, you can see the fast-moving water we were trying to get to.)



Finally we got to the edge of all the rocks.


The river moves pretty fast


and it was nice dangling our feet in and enjoying the view.

Some cool wildlife:


We saw 2 of these black snakes; neither picture came out great. Some guy ahead of us on the trail nearly stepped on this one. The dude nearly fell over trying to avoid it, then freaked out big time. The snake pretty much ignored him.


This big old snapping turtle was sticking its head out of the water getting some air.


A little skink chilling on log.


Mean bastard of a turkey vulture.

Buncha spoiled babies

Everyone starts complaining to me if I post a few poker entries in a row. I don't know if you guys know this but I PLAY POKER FOR A LIVING. WHAT ELSE AM I GOING TO WRITE ABOUT?? I HATE YOU ALL!!

Just kidding.

I haven't had time to write much. I've been kinda busy. By "busy" I mean "drunk." Just kidding.

What?

While I go insane, enjoy these lovely pictures I took while hiking around Great Falls this weekend. I tried to do thumbnails, so I hope that works.

2-7 Triple Draw

On a whim, I played $2/4 for an hour and won $90. Maybe I've got silly secret lowball skills. Or maybe nobody has a clue how to play this game, and I have 1/20th of a clue thanks to Doyle Brunson and Daniel Negreanu.

In one lovely hand my opponent raised me after he drew one card on the 2nd draw, this after I had checkraised him after the 1st draw when I made a 87642 on a 2 card draw. I was so baffled by his turn raise that I almost broke my 8 to draw to the 76. Eventually I decided to stand pat, and he quickly stood pat behind me as expected. I check-called him on the river and he showed 8754A which would beat me if we were playing A-5 lowball. But unfortunately, and apparently unbeknownst to him, the Ace plays high in this game and I took down a large pot.

Full disclosure

If anyone that reads this blog thinks I have any poker wisdom at all, please reexamine your belief system. I was so tickled with my last post that I finally signed up for 2+2 and posted it there. They mostly tore me to shreds.

They made some good points:

1.) Playing A9o here sucks. I mostly agree with them. In 90,000 hands of (winning) limit hold'em with 6 or more players , I've only limped into a pot with A9o when dealt it in the SB 20% of the time. I'm guessing that almost all of that is in an unraised pot. I'd try to figure out how much lower that % is against a raise, but my pokertracker database is getting very very slow. I do think there were exceptional circumstances that made it much better here that it normally would be. But it is hard to conclude that it pushed it past the +/- EV line. I cringed as I made the call, which is usually something that happens on the river, not preflop...

2.) My river play sucks. No doubt.

They made some other points about the play of the hand. Although I disagree with some of them, they are worth checking out. Always good to hear different thoughts about hands.

Several times I was personally insulted. So intense is adamstewart's hatred of me, I conclude he either was my victim in this hand, or he is convinced I killed his mother.

The entire thread is available here. If that link doesn't work, it is posted in the Texas Hold'em General Forum, user name "adspar" post titled "Odd play in a big pot, funny reaction."

I still like my flop bet, which is why I was so excited about the hand in the first place. So excited that I misplayed the river, then misplayed my first 2+2 post. Luckily I don't really care what they think about me, as long as they help me learn.

Fun and games

I'm not a big fan of FullTilt but they have a 50% rebuy bonus going, and I'm trying to branch out, so I bought back into that site. I instantly remembered how they never have many hold'em games going and the bonuses take forever to earn back. I doubt I'll play there enough to earn all $300 within the 60 day window. But while I was sitting in either a $2/4 or $3/6 shorthanded game, an interesting hand arose, and hilarity ensued. (Non-poker people may or may not agree on the hilariousness.)

Another reason Full Tilt sucks is that they don't offer hand histories, so I'm recounting this hand from memory...

Preflop - 6 handed

• me in the small blind: A♥9♠

• 2 donkeys limp. Button raises. I call cause I could easily have the best hand. Big Blind 3-bets. All call.

Flop - 5 players, 15 small bets in the pot

• board: 8♥ 6♥ 3♣

• I bet out because I figure the BB will raise his overpair, which will probably get everyone else to fold. That cleans up my Ace outs and maybe gets overcards out if pairing my 9 would be good, and I have the backdoor flush draw and a possible weak straight draw. The pot is huge, so its worth taking this shot.

• I bet, big blind raises, all fold to me and I call.
  

• Sweet, exactly what I wanted.

Turn - 2 players, 9.5 big bets in the pot.

• board: T♥

• Now I picked up the flush draw, plus an inside straight draw. I figure I have 9 outs to the nut flush, plus 3 Aces and 3 sevens for probable winners. That's 15 outs of the 46 unseen cards, so I have an easy call getting 10.5 to 1 from the pot.

• I check, big blind bets, I call.

River - 2 players, 11.5 big bets in the pot

• board: A♦

• Sweet, I rivered top pair. No point betting it, but I probably win.

• I check, big blind bets, I call.
• I drag the 13.5 big bet pot after big blind shows 9♦9♣

This hand and the hand I posted earlier with the pocket aces are good examples of how big pots force you to change your strategy considerably. Note that in this pot I bet the flop with what I knew was the worst hand, but in the other hand I checked the flop with what I knew was probably the best hand. I think the circumstances of each hand made this backwards strategy appropriate.

Anyway, I mentioned that hilarity ensued. I very rarely engage my opponents in chat, in fact I usually turn the chat feature off, but this was too good to pass up. The big blind was pretty upset about losing a big pot on the last card, so he begins berating me for what he thinks is bad play. It always pisses me off when I see players criticize their opponents' play.

Big Blind says - "That was absolutely horrible"

He is insulting me, telling me my play was horrible. Now keep in mind that I'm pretty proud of myself because I used some fairly sophisticated moves that paid off. Also note that this guy went a little overboard with his middle pocket pair. If he hadn't 3bet preflop I probably would have just check-folded on the flop, although maybe someone else would have sucked out on him. But that is the nature of middle pocket pairs. The point is that he brought this "bad beat" upon himself.

I reply - "Yeah betting the river there didn't make too much sense for you. Horrible."

I turn it around on him. He probably shouldn't have bet the river. Lots of opponents will call until the river with a hand containing an ace or a ten, so checking probably would have been a better play.

Big blind says - "Well I figured your hand hit the flop... you know, since you called a reraise."

Actually I called a raise not a reraise, but who's keeping track. So he is now defending his river bet, saying he figured my hand was made on the flop and that the Ace didn't help me. I love how it started out with him criticizing me, and now he's flopping around trying to defend his own play.

I reply: "Horrible figuring."

Outzinged, he pretty much gives up on the "horrible' line of conversation, but is still fuming mad.

Big blind says: "I love it when idiots fall a$$ backwards into a hand and then act like they played it right"

This is so replete with irony:

1. At no point in our little conversation did I ever defend my play to him. I didn't act like I played it right; I simply questioned his play, but he's too mad and/or stupid to realize that.

2. Second, as I've already mentioned, with the possible exception of my preflop call, I think I did play my hand right, but he's not a good enough player to realize that. And I didn't fall into that hand, I had to work hard for it! But to his ignorant a$, my play looked idiotic. (By the way, I find it hilarious when angry players find ways around the poker software's auto censoring: a$, fu_ck you, chit, etc. Where there's a will, there's a way.)

3. If you believe your opponent is such a bad player, why would you tell him? Criticism is going to piss a person off, which usually has one of two effects - it is either going to make them play better, or it will make them leave. Do you really want your opponents to get better? Do you really want a horrible player to leave your game?

I was content to simply enjoy irony #1 without further comment. As for irony #2, I felt no need to defend my play. I didn't want to educate him any more than I had already done by questioning his river bet, which I was only willing to do because I knew I wouldn't be playing in this game much longer. On that note, I figured I'd teach him irony lesson #3.

I responded: "You are mean. I don't want to play with you any more. Your meanness is driving this bad player away from your game."

And I left the table.

Huge Pot

Hints:
UTG = Under the Gun = first person to act after the blinds
UTGB= Under the Gun B = 2nd person to act after the blinds
MP = Middle Position
Button = last person to act on all betting rounds

Party Poker 10/20 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop:
UTG raises, UTGB 3-bets, MP1 calls, 1 fold, MP3 calls, 1 fold, Button caps, 2 folds, UTG calls, UTGB calls, MP1 calls, MP3 calls.


Flop:
21.50 SB = $215 in the pot. 5 players for 4 bets each.

8♦, 3♥, 2♣

UTG checks, UTGB checks, MP1 checks, MP3 checks, Button bets, UTG calls, UTGB calls, MP1 calls, MP3 calls.


Turn:
13.25 BB = $265 in the pot. 5 players still in.

2♠

UTG bets, UTGB raises, MP1 calls, MP3 folds, Button folds, UTG calls.

River:
19.25 BB = $385 in the pot. 3 players still in.

K♦

UTG checks, UTGB bets, MP1 calls, UTG folds.

Final Pot: 21.25 BB = $425



Results and commentary in white below (highlight to read):

UTGB has Ah As (two pair, aces and twos).

MP1 has 7c 7s (two pair, sevens and twos).

Outcome: UTGB wins 21.25 BB.

I had the Aces. After 5 people see a capped flop, my priority is maximizing my chance to win the pot, as opposed to maximizing the size of the pot. I didn't raise the flop because it would have still been right for almost any hand to call me. Nobody would have folded and everyone would have odds to call if I bet the turn. By not raising, I induced UTG to bet out on the turn, giving me the chance to raise it to $40 and force 2 people out, and forcing the guy with 77 to make an incorrect call.

This was the biggest pot I've won in a long time.

Its been a long day

I've written before about how I got to be playing the Party Poker $3/6 hold'em game. The key point is that over a couple months I averaged $90/hour of winnings by playing 4 tables at once in that game. While I knew that my "true" winrate over a larger number of hands wouldn't end up that high, I still fancied myself quite a success in that game.

When I found myself playing poker full time, I figured I'd start with that game as my bread-and-butter and go from there. I started to get frustrated with that game, made fun of my opponents, wallowed in some introspection, and eventually decided to try $5/10 instead.

So that gets us to yesterday. If you asked me 2 days ago, I'd tell you my main game was playing 4 tables of Party $5/10 full-handed tables. But after losing 73 big bets ($726.50) in 2 hours late Thursday/early Friday, I started to wonder if that was really my best choice of game. I've played almost 30,000 hands, and I'm winning a mere 0.37BB/100 hands, which translates to less than $10 per hour. That's no way to pay my bills while building a bankroll. So something has to change. What should I change?

Here are the variables: hold'em, cash game, limit, $5/10, full-handed, Party Poker, 4-tabling.

1. Hold'em: While I enjoy dabbling in Omaha and a little 2-7 Triple Draw, I'm sticking with Hold'em. This is the hottest game in the country, and if I can't make it as a hold'em player right now, I need to stop playing poker.

2. Cash Games: In my experience so far, I suck at tournaments. I'm good at the 1 table quick ones, but that's about it. I don't have what it takes to win these big online multitable tournaments. I'll still enter a few of them for fun, but I'm sticking with cash games mostly.

3. Limit: From time to time I've given serious consideration to moving to the no-limit side of the world. Everyone sees tournaments on TV and wants to go all-in. I have to imagine there are tons and tons of awful players playing no-limit these days. My first poker experiences were playing no-limit games with my buddies in college. I regularly destroyed those games, so I have to believe I've got some no-limit talent.

But I'm not comfortable making this switch yet. There are still lots of awful limit players all over the place, and I have a lot more experience with the limit game. II feel better playing no-limit when I can see my opponent. Limit hold'em is a lot more mechanical, and I can pick up very good reads based on betting patterns without seeing the players. So for now I'm sticking with limit.

4. $5/10: To pay the bills and try to build my bankroll to move up in limits, I need to be playing at least $5/10 most of the time. I'll play $3/6 if it is shorthanded or heads-up because I can get a lot more hands in, but for the most part I need to be looking to play higher.

5. Full-handed: This one is tricky. I've written a bit about the short-handed vs full-handed struggle. Playing poker live and at limits below $5/10 online I've always been very strong at shorthanded play. But that damn Party $5/10 6-max game is my master. I just can't beat it for some reason. I crush the $3/6 5-max on Paradise. So I'm not sure what my problem is with shorthanded play. I know I'd like to be able to play short, because you get in so many more hands. I don't know what to do here. This leads us to...

6. Party Poker: Party is my favorite online cardroom, and you've seen me pimping it from time to time. There are tons and tons of bad players, more than any other site. But since I've decided so far that I want to play $5/10 and higher, and I'd like the option of playing shorthanded (and winning), I have to look at the results. And the stats say that I'm just not winning enough in Party's limit hold'em games, full or short at $5/10 or higher.

So I'm starting to sniff out games at other sites, and I have noticed very distinct differences in playing styles at different sites. It is entirely possible that my playing style and strengths just don't work well against the games at Party. I'm a marginal winner at Party, but maybe I could be a big winner somewhere else.

Why would this be? A factor is that 6-max tables at Party are available most only at $1/2, $5/10, and $10/20. Those games are very popular, as are the $3/6 and $15/30 full-handed games. I have to think that the play in the full-handed games at the $5/10 and $10/20 levels is heavily influenced in some way by the abundance of short-handed games. I don't know exactly how it is influenced, but I definitely notice a difference in play when I go to other sites with different limit offerings.

Luckily, I'm not writing a thesis, so I don't have to figure out all the reasons. And I'm not trying to prove my skills to anyone, so I don't feel like I have to beat whatever game I play. I just have to make money. So I'm going to try to find games I can beat, which might mean less playing at Party, at least at these limits.

7. 4-tabling: I've been 4-tabling $5/10 because I 4-tabled $3/6. But as I was moving up from $1/2 to $2/4 to $3/6 I dropped some tables when I moved up, then gradually added them back. I never did that for $5/10. I probably should have.

I'm playing on a 17" monitor, so there is overlap for more than 2 tables at once. Maybe being able to see all of the players on every table all the time would help. I'll get a 21" monitor once I'm sure that 4-tabling is profitable for me.

But I read this guy's story. And some analysis of my results suggests that I do a lot better with fewer tables. So I'm going to try playing 2 tables for a while instead of 4.

So there it is. I decided to stick with limit hold'em cash games, and try playing 2 tables on various sites at $5/10 to $10/20 limits. In the 24 hours since the disastrous session that made me rethink things, I've won $1200 with my new approach. Its been a long day.

The Royal

In a $5/10 game yesterday I was dealt

A♠T♠

There was a limper, then a late position raise. I called the raise from the big blind, as did the limper, and the 3 of us saw the flop came down

Q♠K♠8♣

We both check to the raiser, who bets. I call with my strong draw, and the other guy calls. The turn comes

8♥

and everyone checks. The river delivers my

J♠

and I bet my Royal Flush. The preflop limper raises me, and then the preflop raiser 3-bets! I gladly cap with the mortal nuts. At this point the 1st guy gives up, and the preflop raiser calls me with

A♣T♣

I guess he thought I'd cap the river on a paired, flushable board with 2 pair. I won the $144 pot.

That is the 3rd royal flush I've hit at Party Poker in since December (all 3 were spades), and at least the 6th in my life. I seem to be a royal flush luckbox. I've often told the story of my first royal flush, but for those who have never heard it, here it is.



In college we used to run up to Atlantic City to play poker at the Taj. It was about a 3 hour drive, so we'd usually leave in the early afternoon when we woke up, get there early evening, play all night and then drive back. Occasionally we'd sleep in our car. Paying for a room never really crossed our minds.

You're supposed to be 21 to gamble in a casino there, and while they usually check IDs at the other table games, nobody ever IDed us in the poker room. I probably played a dozen casino sessions before my 21st birthday.

Driving home from one of these trips, The Biz told me "if you ever get dealt a royal flush you'll have to fold it." He went on to explain that he saw someone at his table hit one, and that the casino gives you a free dinner as a prize. They put the free dinner on your comp card, which you have to show valid ID to receive. So since I didn't have a comp card and didn't have a fake ID, I'd get busted if I made a royal. "Whatever, dude."

A few days later, The Biz and I were back in elegant AC. We were degenerates. A few hours into my $2/4 hold'em session I was dealt

J♠K♠

(Always spades) I limped in along with 29 other people. No fold'em hold'em, baby. The flop came

A♠T♠A♣

At this point I remember the warning, and I hope that there is a bet and a raise to me so I can reasonably fold my draw. But somehow all 29 people checked, and some brick hit the turn. I was thinking, "alright whatever moron was slowplaying their ace-three offsuit can go ahead and bet it now so I can fold." But somehow, everyone checked again. This was unheard of. So the river delivers my glorious nemesis, the bitch of spades.

Q♠

Now I start hoping that everyone checks again, so I can bet and then everyone will fold. But of course some jackass immediately bets. Everyone folds to me and I have a decision to make. Can I really fold a royal flush? How can I do that? I don't remember making the decision, I just remember my hand throwing out enough chips for a raise.

Please just fold, jackass! Of course he calls, and now I need to figure out what I'm going to do.

On the outside I proudly show my cards, while on the inside I'm thinking SHIT SHIT SHIT!

The dealer looks at my 2 spades, and the 3 spades on the board and announces "King-high flush."

YES YES YES! I like the sound of that. She doesn't notice it is a royal!

Then the rest of the table erupts in applause. "No, that's a ROYAL FLUSH!!! WOOHOOO!!!!"

SHIT SHIT SHIT!

The dealer calls for the floorperson, who I know will ask take my nonexistent comp card to give me my free dinner. When I tell the floorperson I don't have a comp card, she'll say "oh that's no problem, just come with me and we'll get you set up with one." Then she'll find out I'm not 21 and I'll go to jail and get raped. (I realize now they probably would have just told me to cash out and leave. But at the time it was scary.)

While the floorperson is making her way over, I turn to the woman next to me and ask what is going on. "Oh they'll give you a free dinner on your comp card."

"Oh, where is the dinner?" SHIT SHIT SHIT! She tells me it is to some restaurant upstairs. "Oh don't really like that place... plus I don't have a comp card..." SHIT SHIT SHIT!

"Well why don't you use my card?" she offers. YES YES YES! "Although all the floorpeople know me. They probably won't let you use it." SHIT SHIT SHIT!

Then she turns and sees that the floorperson coming over is the one guy that actually doesn't know her. She hands me her card, and I realize that there's no way I'll get away with giving a card with a woman's name on it. SHIT SHIT SHIT!

But then I look down at her card. Her name is Pat. YES YES YES!! Hooray for androgynous names!! I give the dude Pat's card, and he returns it 5 minutes later without incident. Pat got her dinner, and I got away with it. The End.


By the way, check out Luke's blog. Funny story about playing poker with Cameron Diaz.

(Needlessly Profane) Blatherings

• Poker is a sick disgusting game. Anyone that plays poker is sick and disgusting. I went into tonight riding a sick disgusting losing streak. Within an hour I was down another $500. Sick. Disgusting. I was starting to think about things like my sick resume and disgusting rush hour traffic. That was around 1am. Now its 4am and I finished the session with $41 more than I started with. What the fuck is wrong with me at the beggining of my poker sessions? I can't win then to save my life, but I swear I'm a fucking world championship caliber player starting in my 3rd hour at the table. Obviously I'm exaggerating a little bit. Sick and disgusting...long run....EV...variance...full house...big blind...omaha...serenity now. SERENITY NOW!
  

• One thing that I've learned in my first few days with the sweet Yahoo Music Unlimited thing is that Lyle Lovett is awesome. Before this endorsement sets off a wave of sarcastic comments, make sure you've actually listened to some of his stuff before you bash him. I know he's an ugly dude and superficially its hard to see how he ever got Julia Roberts, but he's fucking talented. Even if his stuff isn't your style, you're going to have a hard time not respecting him if you are any kind of music lover.

• I saw Star Wars tonight. I hadn't even seen all of the first trilogy before college, but I became a fan. I've enjoyed the last two new movies, and was looking forward to this one. For me, Star Wars is great for creating a fascinating far-away exotic galaxy that we can all relate to this world. The plotlines are intricate, but they rely on simple themes: good vs evil, destiny, father vs son, etc. The battles are usually very well done, and Jedis are just really cool. So that's what I like about Star Wars. But these movies consistently deliver awful acting and cheesy dialog. Why can't we have a fucking decent actor be a Skywalker? Sigh.

• Next week I get to take the big splint off and just tape my pinky to the ring finger. Looking forward to that. My left wrist is so sore from being locked in place by the splint. Aww, poor me. Sigh.
  

• I count 4 F-bombs in these blatherings. Chill out?
  

I need a break?

I've decided to take a few days off from poker.

Since March 26, I've only had 3 days where I haven't played at all. My results have been awful the last 2 weeks, and yesterday was my 2nd worst day in these 2 months. I'm hoping some time away from the tables will help me clear my head to come back focused and fresh. I'm on a $2,000 downswing, which is a lot for me, so I'm taking desperate measures here.

I don't know how much I can attribute my poor results to this, but I've been on real world time for these last two weeks, going to bed around 1am and getting up around 9am. I always thought the games were best between midnight and 6am, so I've been sleeping through the easy games and trying to grind it out in the tough daytime games. After this coming weekend I'm planning to get back on vampire time.

Medical Update:
I have a followup appointment tomorrow morning to make sure my finger is healing properly. I'm hoping that he'll set me up with a different splint that I can take on an off.

JUAN

Juan Dixon to testify before Congress.

Yahoo! Music Unlimited

This is the best thing ever. Unlimited music for $5/month.