After a terrible evening, I decided to do some poker introspection. The following is semi-stream of consciousness.Let's put tonight's loss in perspective.
At all levels since June 1, I've won 0.76 BB/100 in 120,000 hands.
$3/6: 0.77bb, 52k hands
$5/10: 1.27bb, 22k hands
$10/20: 0.49bb, 23k hands
$15/30: 0.56bb, 14k hands
If you're wondering why bothered with $15/30 when I haven't even shown much profitability at $3/6, here's the rough sequence of limits since June:
$10/20 ---> $15/30 hot at first, then very cold ---> retreat down to $10/20, frigidly cold --> retreat all the way down to $3/6, double from 2 to 4 tables and grind away, gradually go to 6 tables (which lowers my winrate) --> $5/10
So here I am at $5/10 and based on everything else, my 1.3 bb/100 here might be temporarily too high because I'm running hot. (1.3 would be 1.5bb if not for tonight. Shows you how volatile this stat is) Or maybe I've finally learned something and I'm improving a bit.
When I first move to a new game I'm very cautious about table selection, which probably helps me get off to a hot start. But when I'm being cautious, I'm not playing nearly as much because the higher stakes make it more emotional. Then I look at how little I'm playing and see that I've got a good winrate at first, and I start forcing myself to play more, sacrificing selectivity. Eventually I get sloppy, sit down without scouting it out, and play too many tables at a time. And then I start wondering what went wrong.
A better approach to moving to a new game would be to play it a bit here and there when the games look good, but then drop down and play the game I had been comfortable with before moving up. Or better yet, make damn sure I have a solid long-term win rate in a game before jumping up. Unfortunately financial constraints force me to try to maintain a minimum level of income, and laziness constraints limit the hours I play, so I tend to want to play higher than I probably should.
I've said this same shit so many times, and I keep having the same problem. This game is hard. It seeks out my weaknesses and exploits them. You can do the income math on the numbers above. Its not impressive at all. Luckily rakeback and bonuses more than double that number, otherwise I'd be employed by now. As it is, I'm just barely getting by month to month.
I always try to make these kind of entries have a positive spin. "If I do this or that, I have reason to be optimistic... blah blah..." Should I really be optimistic?
I think it is pretty clear by now that given my skill level, expenses, and endurance, I'm going to struggle to build a bankroll and move up to higher limits. But I'm clearly a proven winner at this point, albeit a marginal winner.
But then would I probably be a marginal winner at the next level? Say I can win 1.2 bb/100 at $5/10. That's $12 per 100 hands. Could I expect to win 0.8bb/100 at $10/20? That seems like a reasonable assumption. That's $16 per 100 hands with the same skill level. Plus then I'd be playing against better competition and hopefully learning from them and improving.
Is it insane to think I'd be better off playing higher when I haven't even been able to build a bankroll to afford higher stakes? This is part of the reason I think selling my house would be a good idea. I could live someplace cheaper that lowers my monthly expenses, increasing the amount of my winnings that I can reinvest in my bankroll. Hell if I had no expenses the last 6 months, I'd have a very nice bankroll. Plus I could use some of the cash infusion from the equity gain to pad my bankroll and possibly move to higher stakes.
Another weird possibility would be having someone stake me. I've never really seriously considered such an arrangement, but it might be a good fit here if someone with money to risk buys into the idea that I'd probably be a winner at a higher level. I'm not sure if playing with someone else's money would make me feel less pressure or more, although I suspect less since I'm a selfish bastard (luckily in this case that works to the advantage of my theoretical backer).
Maybe the Vegas trip I have planned for April would be a good test-run for a staking deal. From what I hear about the $20/40 and 30/60 games out there, I probably have the skill but not the bankroll to beat them. If anyone wants to invest in a mediocre poker player, let me know. (Yes, someone asking to borrow money is a huge warning sign that they'd be a bad investment. That's why this isn't really me asking. It is more like me letting you know about a lukewarm opportunity that we could consider. I expect the offers to now come flooding in.)
Anyway, the fact that my prospects for advancing are based more on capital infusions than hard work or skill is probably an indication that I won't be a professional poker player in 5 years. I've been thinking of other things I might like to do, but most of them will take some time to get started, so I think I'll be doing this for at least another year if I can make it. I still really enjoy poker, and I imagine it will be a great hobby and supplemental income source for the rest of my life.